BoB: MANDOUS - Cyclonic Storm

[cycloneye]

IO, 96, 2022120318, , BEST, 0, 61N, 980E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, B, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 962022.dat

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8N
99.0E, APPROXIMATELY 114 NM SOUTH OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). A 041042Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WEAKLY
DEFINED LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE OFFSET BY MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.8N 99.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 825 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 050658Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ PASS REVEALS WEAK FORMATIVE
BANDING IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS 96B TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[wxman57]

12Z CFOSAT (scatterometer) indicates a 30kt TD.

[cycloneye]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.8N
99.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 91.2E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF NICOBAR ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 051224Z 37GHZ SATELLITE PASS DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). A PARTIAL PASS FROM A 051551Z METOP-B ASCAT ALSO REVEALS A LLC
BEGINNING TO FORM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NICOBAR ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS 96B TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

12Z CFOSAT (scatterometer) indicates a 30kt TD.

It doesn't look that organized/strong on the 15Z ASCAT pass though. Beware that the HY-2 (and probably even CFOSAT) scatterometers have a "closed center bias", making disturbances appear more organized than they actually are.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1600072185309270017

[cycloneye]

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5N 89.2E TO 10.2N 83.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.6N 89.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7N 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 608 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS
BEING PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH BEGINNING
TO EXHIBIT FORMATIVE WRAPPING. A 06230Z SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE
LLCC, AND PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
ALOFT, WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96B WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA WHILE
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070800Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TD.

IO, 96, 2022120612, , BEST, 0, 83N, 873E, 30, 1000, TD

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 962022.dat

[wxman57]

I see at least one 35kt wind barb north of the center in the latest HY-2 pass. IMD says "depression" (25 kts), not even a "deep depression" (30 kts). Many 30kt barbs now.

[doomhaMwx]

ASCAT at 04Z showed at least a 40-kt TS. Easterly shear is keeping it in check, however.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/1600651207072022529

[wxman57]

In case you don't know how to pronounce "Mandous", IMD has issued a statement: “Mandous” pronounced as “Man-Dous”. Yeah, right. That is helpful...

[Hurricane2022]

In case you don't know how to pronounce "Mandous", IMD has issued a statement: “Mandous” pronounced as “Man-Dous”. Yeah, right. That is helpful...

If it's on the internet, it's because it's very useful content and sometimes it can change your life.
What IMD did changed the way I pronounce tropical cyclone names forever. I don't even know how to thank them

[Iceresistance]

That is one of the weirdest names I've seen I have seen in a while.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1601250249380536320

[cycloneye]

7 deaths.

 https://twitter.com/typhoon_tcx/status/1601475322741784577