EPAC: ADRIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Bones says it's time to call it. Zero convection, open swirl, put away the paddles.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Adrian is nearly post-tropical, having produced no deep convection
for about 8 hours. Post-tropical transition will likely conclude
later today since the depression is moving over cooler waters. The
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the ASCAT pass mentioned
in the previous advisory. Without deep convection to sustain it,
Adrian should gradually weaken and dissipate over the next couple of
days or so. The official intensity prediction is nearly identical
to the previous one.

The tropical depression is moving west-northwestward away from the
Baja California peninsula at about 6 kt. The low-level trade winds
should slowly turn the cyclone westward over the next couple of
days. The NHC track forecast is again near the various consensus
aids and no changes of note were made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 19.5N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.9N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/1200Z 20.1N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0000Z 20.1N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 122.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 02 2023

This has been no deep convection associated with Adrian for over 12
hours, and it is doubtful that any organized convection will return.
Therefore, Adrian is now a post-tropical remnant low and this will
be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity is
lowered to 25 kt, based on satellite-estimated surface winds. The
remnant low should continue to gradually spin down over the cooler
sea surface temperatures and open into a trough of low pressure
during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and close to the intensity model
consensus. Adrian is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt. The
remnant low should make a gradual turn to the west over the next
couple of days in the low-level flow and model guidance suggests it
will likely open into a trough of low pressure beyond day 2.

This is the final NHC advisory of Adrian. For additional
information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 19.9N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 03/0600Z 20.2N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/1800Z 20.3N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 20.3N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 20.2N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[Hurricane2022]

Bye Adrian! See you in 2029!