Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023
Eugene is sending some mixed signals this afternoon. While earlier
a possible eye feature was present on the visible imagery, the
feature has weakened and become part of a ragged central dense
overcast. Overall, the system doesn't seem much different than the
last advisory, so 60 kt is maintained on this cycle. The Dvorak
estimate ranges are quite large, with estimates of 40-65 kt, so
the initial wind is a bit more uncertain than average.
The storm should begin to weaken overnight as it crosses a tight
sea-surface temperature gradient, with very cold waters along the
forecast track within 24 h. By early Tuesday, Eugene should
transition to a non-convective post-tropical low, consistent with
the stable environment and the latest global model infrared
satellite forecasts. The new NHC forecast is slightly lower than
the last one, between the model consensus and the NOAA
corrected-consensus prediction.
Eugene is moving along pretty quickly to the west-northwest at
about 17 kt. This motion should continue for about a day until it
reaches the edge of the subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a
weaker cyclone should slow down and turn northward toward a
weakness in the ridge. However, the very hostile environment should
cause what's left of Eugene to stall well west of Baja California
and degenerate to a trough in about 3 days. The latest NHC track
is basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern
Pacific track consensus TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 22.7N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.7N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 24.9N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 08/1800Z 26.5N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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