EPAC: MAX - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Max is estimated to have made landfall around 1800 UTC just to the
west of Puerto Vicente Guerrero in the Mexican Provence of Guerrero.
Data received from the a Mexican surface observing site at that
location just after the intermediate advisory suggested the
tropical storm might have been a little stronger than initially
assessed, reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds with a
minimum pressure of 994 mb. Thus, the 18 UTC working best track
intensity was adjusted to 55 kt with a 991 mb pressure. Since that
time, the satellite structure has begun to degrade, likely as the
surface circulation begins to be disrupted by the high rugged
terrain of south-central Mexico. Thus, some weakening is assumed
since that time with the current intensity assessed at 50 kt.
Further rapid weakening is anticipated as the small tropical cyclone
moves further inland, and by this time tomorrow Max is likely to be
little more than a remnant mid-level circulation moving poleward
with enhanced moisture over central Mexico.

The initial motion still appears to be north-northeast at 030/5 kt.
This motion should continue until Max dissipates over the higher
terrain of Mexico. The track guidance following the low-level center
quickly lose the system beyond 12 h, and the updated track forecast
is little changed from the prior one. Even as Max dissipates, its
mid-level remains and larger moisture plume will likely result in
significant upslope rainfall, leading to flash flooding and
mudslides pushing into inland Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions
through this evening to portions of the southern coast of Mexico
where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect.

2. Heavy rains from Max will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 17.6N 101.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[MarioProtVI]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/1160939265706950777/goes18_g18meso2_band02_20231009135458.png?ex=65367bf2&is=652406f2&hm=2528fd91d0140994f66cf46d908df016ad1123778e8fb1cad3fbaf0f4a587b1e&

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/1160907789883944960/20231009.1056.f18.91pct91h91v.16E.MAX.45kts.998mb.16.5N.101.6W.095pc.jpg?ex=65365ea1&is=6523e9a1&hm=55b146fe7d865090891ee70002edcf035eed37453df2394adfd2b517859b6f24&

Good attempt at developing an inner core right before landfall - would be a formidable hurricane with another day.

It really tried replicating it’s 2017 self - except that spun up to 90 mph bc it formed just a bit farther offshore then 2023 did.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

994 with TS winds probably supports more in the neighborhood of 989.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Max Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

After making landfall earlier today in southern Mexico, the
satellite presentation of Max has degraded somewhat this evening,
and the center of circulation has become more ill-defined. However,
deep convection remains along and near the coast, which is likely
producing flooding rainfall as the system moves over the higher
terrain of southern Mexico. Based on recent observations from
coastal Mexico and satellite trends, Max is downgraded to a
depression for this advisory, with the intensity set at 30 kt.

Max is moving north-northeastward at 030/6 kt and should continue
on this trajectory until it dissipates late tonight or tomorrow.
Once the system dissipates, the remnants of Max will continue
to move north-northeastward and still have the potential to produce
life-threatening flooding across the higher terrain of Mexico over
the next day or so.


Key Messages:

1. Max is forecast to continue producing gusty winds through
tonight to portions of the southern coast of Mexico.

2. Heavy rains from Max will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 18.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 18.8N 100.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Max Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Satellite images show that any convection associated with Max has
weakened, and there are no signs of a well-defined surface center.
Thus this system has dissipated over the high terrain of Mexico,
and the initial wind speed is set to 20 kt in accordance with a
rapid weakening rate. Any future rainfall from this system is not
anticipated to be significant.

This is the last advisory from the National Hurricane Center on
this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 19.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF
12H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake