ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[abajan]

If model support continues to drop, thinking NHC going to lower odds soon.

Bingo.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles has become a little less organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain marginally conducive
for some gradual development, and this system could become a
tropical depression early next week while it moves westward across
the tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Looks a lot less organized to my amateur eye.

[chaser1]

Bridge to Scotty, update?
I've giv'n her all she's got captain, an' I canna give her no more.

[Iceresistance]

Per WeatherNerds, ASCAT is coming to 95L

But when? We need one to see how is the structure of 95L tonight.

Sorry, I went to bed directly after this post.

[Hammy]

This was already a tropical depression yesterday by all definitions, and is well past it's peak at this point

[wxman57]

40%/60% makes no sense. Best chance of it becoming a depression is within the next 48 hrs. It gets ripped apart after then. Next!

[Steve H.]

Yes, 95L is history. Don is gone

[cycloneye]

8 PM down to 50% in 7 days.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure
located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has diminished considerably since this time
yesterday. Although environmental conditions are only forecast to
be marginally conducive for some gradual development, the system
could still become a tropical depression early next week while it
moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[wxman57]

Bones says 95L has flat-lined. Its best chance of development was yesterday. The farther west it tracks, the higher the shear. He doesn't understand NHC's higher development chances past 48 hrs.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2023072300, , BEST, 0, 114N, 442W, 25, 1012, LO

[abajan]

Bones says 95L has flat-lined. Its best chance of development was yesterday. The farther west it tracks, the higher the shear. He doesn't understand NHC's higher development chances past 48 hrs.

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

It now looks awful! And I don't mean that in an archaic sense.

[Jr0d]

I figured this was coming when I checked up on ithe invest tonight.

[ElectricStorm]

Looked pretty close to a TD yesterday but doesn't have much of a chance now. Might be down to a lemon in the next TWO. Maybe the next wave can do better

[GCANE]

Getting close to 50W and firing back up.
WV satellite imagery showing shear to the west starting around 53W.
However, GFS is forecasting higher humidity and water temps at about the same point.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 230600.png

[chaser1]

Getting close to 50W and firing back up.
WV satellite imagery showing shear to the west starting around 53W.
However, GFS is forecasting higher humidity and water temps at about the same point.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 230600.png

LOL, It's gonna fight till the bitter end

[abajan]

Getting close to 50W and firing back up.
WV satellite imagery showing shear to the west starting around 53W.
However, GFS is forecasting higher humidity and water temps at about the same point.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 230600.png

LOL, It's gonna fight till the bitter end

Indeed. Let's all raise our glasses for a toast to 95L's heroic swansong, shall we?





Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Don, located over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Shower activity remains limited in association with a small area of
low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands.
Although environmental conditions are only forecast to be marginally
conducive for some gradual development, this system could still
become a tropical depression during the next few days while it
moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean
Sea. Unfavorable upper-level winds are forecast when the system
moves into the central Caribbean around midweek, decreasing the
chances of formation. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Don, located over the central Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Shower activity continues to be limited in association with a small
area of low pressure located about 900 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Although environmental conditions are only forecast to be
marginally conducive for some gradual development, this system
could still become a tropical depression during the next few days
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and eastern
Caribbean Sea. Unfavorable upper-level winds are forecast when the
system moves into the central Caribbean around midweek, decreasing
the chances of formation. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[abajan]

Circulation seems to be centered near 10.5N 47.0W but there's shear dead ahead!

[abajan]

Comprehensive video from Meteorologist Brian Shields (aka Mr. Weatherman).

[youtube]https://youtu.be/duUVFVd9RAY[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Is still losing some latitude.

AL, 95, 2023072312, , BEST, 0, 106N, 461W, 25, 1012, LO

[GCANE]

Looks like the shear ahead of the wave is confined to the 300 to 400mb level and is associated with quite a bit of moisture.
So, its a mixed bag, meaning it will wash out the SAL ahead of the wave and add moisture in the mid to upper level of the troposphere.