ATL: DON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

There’s a nice mass of moderately deep convection wrapping around the center. Looks like Don’s making one last run for 60-65 kt.

[cycloneye]

Still at 50kt.

AL, 05, 2023072212, , BEST, 0, 385N, 499W, 50, 998, TS

[aspen]

This is the best Don has looked so far. It might be a hurricane now. 50 kt is far too low.

[cycloneye]

Eye feature.

[cycloneye]

given the more recent increase in
organization, the initial intensity is raised to the higher end
of those estimates at 55 kt.

It is possible that some slight additional strengthening occurs within the next 6-12 hours
while Don is over the slightly warmer Gulf Stream waters

[Sciencerocks]

I'd go 70knt

[LarryWx]

I just checked all 4 6Z hurricane models. All strengthen to a peak near 6Z tomorrow/DMAX. All 4 have minimal H force winds somewhere between 0Z and 6Z.

[cycloneye]

I'd go 70knt
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9068/bzobGd.gif

They may have to update the intensity at the TCR.

[USTropics]

Clearly a hot tower has been rotating around the inner core. Microcane in the far north Atlantic?

[Kingarabian]

Clearly a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Sustaining a warm and circular eye so likely a 65-75 knot hurricane.

[Woofde]

I do wonder if they're being conservative because Don is at a higher latitude. Correct me if im wrong, but I think storms further North have a higher tendency to present eye features due to the Coriolis effect. That said I've seen quite the slew of Cat 1 canes that couldn't hold a candle to Don's appearance right now.

[aspen]

I hope we get a special advisory at 2pm, because this is at least 10 kt stronger. Hopefully they upgrade Don to a hurricane at 5pm.

[Hurricane2022]

[tolakram]

Come on Don

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/BrokerWx/status/1682790707554033664

[chaser1]

I hope we get a special advisory at 2pm, because this is at least 10 kt stronger. Hopefully they upgrade Don to a hurricane at 5pm.

I would honestly be very surprised if Don were NOT upgraded to hurricane (now, or after post season analysis) given its presentation along with the obvious increased pressure gradient at it's latitude.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/BrokerWx/status/1682790707554033664?t=gEzv90JRk9JTU2DhBrZZaQ&s=19

Right???

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php

[Ubuntwo]

TXNT21 KNES 221818
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DON)

B. 22/1800Z

C. 39.5N

D. 50.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...9/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED
ON A STEADY 24 HOUR TREND. THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN