EPAC: INVEST 93E - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2023070718, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1068W, 30, 1006, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932023 07/07/23 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 49 54 58 58 53 44 37 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 49 54 58 58 53 44 37 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 41 43 46 46 43 38 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 13 11 17 17 14 16 15 18 17 12 4 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 4 4 6 4 3 5 7 11 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 36 34 38 50 46 56 66 82 97 118 104 115 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 27.9 26.8 25.6 24.7 23.3 21.3 20.9 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 148 148 143 132 119 110 96 75 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 81 80 79 78 75 71 65 59 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 24 25 27 25 22 19 15 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 36 41 53 63 65 75 72 58 56 40 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 74 77 74 72 87 60 20 18 -21 -15 -6 -35 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -5 -3 -6 -7 -9 -10 -4 -7 0 -3 9 0 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 541 509 473 473 493 583 585 581 667 746 861 964 1068 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 9 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 14 15 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 815 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 16. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 9. 10. 8. 2. -3. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 19. 24. 28. 28. 23. 14. 7. -1. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 106.8

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/07/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.8
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.15 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 3.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 17.0% 13.8% 10.8% 0.0% 15.2% 11.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 6.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 2.3% 3.2% 2.5%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.5% 8.4% 5.2% 3.9% 0.0% 5.9% 4.8% 0.8%
DTOPS: 4.0% 23.0% 12.0% 5.0% 3.0% 10.0% 6.0% 2.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/07/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2023070800, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1068W, 30, 1006, DB

[ElectricStorm]

This looks like it still has a long way to go to become a TD. Hardly any convection close to the center. With how broad it is and with how much time it has, I'd say it's highly unlikely it becomes a hurricane at this point. Heck at this rate we may just get a weak-moderate TS out of this.

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better
organized in association with a large area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional slow
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form later today or tonight while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, away from the coast of mainland Mexico.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2023070812, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1079W, 30, 1005, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Effectively a monsoon depression atp.

[Kingarabian]

Euro no longer develops it.

[ElectricStorm]

Latest TWO says they may initiate advisories later today or tonight, but to me this still looks like it needs way more convection near the center and still has a ways to go. We'll see

[zzzh]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Time is running out.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a large area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. While this system has changed little in
organization during the last several hours, any increase in
organization would lead to the development of a tropical depression
tonight or on Sunday. By Monday, the system is expected to move
west-northwestward into a less favorable environment well west of
the coast of mainland Mexico. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1309/2yoi8U.gif

Initially expected to become a modest hurricane but this barely have a well-defined LLC. Time is running out.
Biggest bust in this basin since Pamela '21, or Estelle '22.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeesh, the trends don't really look good for the future of this system. I'd give this a nonzero chance of being one of those rare cases where a 90/90 system does not end up forming into a NS.

[ElectricStorm]

I think NHC will start lowering chances here pretty soon. Still doesn't look close to a TD and doesn't have much time left. Could still be an outside chance at a short-lived TD/weak TS but I think the chances of this developing are far less than 90% now.

[cycloneye]

Begins to decrease the percents. Next!

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized around the broad low
several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Any
increase in organization of the thunderstorms could still lead to
the development of a short-lived tropical depression today. By
tonight, however, the system is expected to move west-northwestward
into a less favorable environment well west of the coast of mainland
Mexico. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.