ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#21 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jul 21, 2023 2:20 am

First HAFS runs are not as crazy as the operational GFS. HAFS-A appears to keep it as a minimal TD/TS (if at all) until it gets to the Lesser Antilles, after which it strengthens slightly in the NE Caribbean:
Image

HAFS-B is stronger overall, with a strong TS approaching the Lesser Antilles and ending the run almost as a hurricane:
Image

Both HWRF and HMON are even stronger than HAFS-B, with a Cat 1 before the islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#22 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jul 21, 2023 2:49 am

0z EPS support is also growing for both 95L and the trailing wave.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#23 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 21, 2023 6:15 am

Image
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06z GFS... Some models continue showing this SW dip over next 2-3 days. IMO this SW dip is a critical move that will heavily influence development down the road. The SW dip will likely keep 95L weaker into the Caribbean and S of the big islands, if this dip doesn't happen I think the northern route possibly into better UL conditions may happen?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#24 Postby abajan » Fri Jul 21, 2023 7:28 am

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4Nk7sRhR/c3ea8cde-8077-4f7c-b562-117ac004684c.gif [/url]

06z GFS... Some models continue showing this SW dip over next 2-3 days. IMO this SW dip is a critical move that will heavily influence development down the road. The SW dip will likely keep 95L weaker into the Caribbean and S of the big islands, if this dip doesn't happen I think the northern route possibly into better UL conditions may happen?


That's a pretty pronounced dip. The Euro, and CMC (to a lesser extent), shows it too. Can't recall when last I've seen models show anything like that in the MDR east of the Antilles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#25 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 21, 2023 7:36 am

abajan wrote:
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4Nk7sRhR/c3ea8cde-8077-4f7c-b562-117ac004684c.gif [/url]

06z GFS... Some models continue showing this SW dip over next 2-3 days. IMO this SW dip is a critical move that will heavily influence development down the road. The SW dip will likely keep 95L weaker into the Caribbean and S of the big islands, if this dip doesn't happen I think the northern route possibly into better UL conditions may happen?


That's a pretty pronounced dip. The Euro, and CMC (to a lesser extent), shows it too. Can't recall when last I've seen models show anything like that in the MDR east of the Antilles.


I think Elsa (2021), very slightly, featured this kind of dip. Irma did too
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#26 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 21, 2023 8:36 am

:eek:

Image
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#27 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jul 21, 2023 9:44 am

The 6Z EPS has 7 of its 51 get this into the Caribbean at sub 1000 mb/TS+. Two of the members get down to sub 985/H near Greater Antilles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#28 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Jul 21, 2023 9:46 am

FWIW...
0z EPS @168 hrs:
45-50% chance of TD.
Image
10-20% chance of TS.
Image

*note: on these charts, one or two members (<5%), are 'invisible'.
Last edited by Spacecoast on Fri Jul 21, 2023 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#29 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 21, 2023 9:48 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#30 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 21, 2023 9:55 am

Image
Image

No signs of that SW dip. IMO that will allow for a track on the N side of the model envelope.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#31 Postby abajan » Fri Jul 21, 2023 9:56 am

OOPS! Apologies for posting this in the models thread. :oops:
If it's possible for a mod to move it, please do so.

:eek: I think this loop speaks for itself. Suffice it to say that, should the current trend continue, we're likely looking at a TD or TS as soon as tonight.

Image
Last edited by abajan on Fri Jul 21, 2023 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#32 Postby REDHurricane » Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:03 am

All 6z models showing a nice pocket of moisture around 52-55W even with the significant dry air to the north:

GFS
Image

ECMWF
Image

HAFS-A
Image

HWRF
Image

The only reason I can maybe see as to why only the Euro doesn't develop 95L is that it predicts this system to move just a bit faster compared to the others, leaving some of the moist mid-level air behind and entering a slightly less favorable wind shear environment?

GFS
Image

ECMWF
Image

HAFS-A
Image

HWRF
Image

I'm inclined to think this will probably develop into at least a weak TS before it gets to the Caribbean like the GFS/HAFS-A/HWRF/other hurricane models are predicting. Really warm water = more tropical cyclones, right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#33 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:12 am

Curious to see if the 12z guidance latches on to the recent convective trend, at least in the short term.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#34 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:16 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Small system, I think it's possible the global models may not be resolving it very well. .....

Not resolving (very well) at all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#35 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:25 am

12z Icon is showing that dip too for tomorrow afternoon and Sunday.
Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#36 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:33 am

BobHarlem wrote:12z Icon is showing that dip too for tomorrow afternoon and Sunday.


Also coming in stronger so far with a strengthening TS coming into the Caribbean
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#37 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 21, 2023 11:19 am

Ivanhater wrote:Curious to see if the 12z guidance latches on to the recent convective trend, at least in the short term.

12z GFS still initializes very poorly and doesn’t develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#38 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 21, 2023 1:08 pm

HAFS-A at 989 mbs south of PR.

Image

HAFS-B at 973 mbs south of Mona Channel.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#39 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 21, 2023 1:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:HAFS-A at 989 mbs south of PR.

https://i.imgur.com/eb7QIKX.png

HAFS-B at 973 mbs south of Mona Channel.

https://i.imgur.com/IbdoN0v.png


Hurricane models really aren't best for invests...it's an interesting piece of info. Global models basically all kill it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#40 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 21, 2023 1:40 pm

Will likely need to be declared a TD fairly soon if that latest convective burst is the start of a trend.
About all we can say is its probably going to stay below hurricane strength and track west for now.
When the models track west of Jamaica we will know better if this is Pacific bound or gulf threat.
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