ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

2 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Further development
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 10
to 15 mph. The system is then expected to turn west-northwestward
early next week as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 90, 2023092212, , BEST, 0, 145N, 329W, 25, 1009, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

First two missions for Monday by Gonzo in the early morning and Air Force plane in the afternoon.

POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES, DEPARTING
TBPB AT 25/0530Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC (AL90) NEAR 16.0N 50.0W FOR 25/1730Z.

[Nimbus]

Way up by 15N already, the cone just needs to lift a little more and the islands will feel more comfortable.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2023092218, , BEST, 0, 153N, 345W, 25, 1008, DB

Moving WNW at 285 degrees.

INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13

[ConvergenceZone]

So glad to see the Atlantic slowly starting to calm down. Hopefully the season will end early and October and November will be non-eventful.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Some dry air affecting it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Way up by 15N already, the cone just needs to lift a little more and the islands will feel more comfortable.

Lets hope it's a fish spinner

[galaxy401]

So glad to see the Atlantic slowly starting to calm down. Hopefully the season will end early and October and November will be non-eventful.

Calming down? Activity has been relatively consistent for the last month now.

[johngaltfla]

Way up by 15N already, the cone just needs to lift a little more and the islands will feel more comfortable.

Good. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands have had enough the last 5 years. As has Florida.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

Invest 90L in the Central Tropical Atlantic: The axis of a
tropical wave is analyzed along 35W with a 1009 mb low centered
at 14N35W, or several hundred nautical miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Maximum winds are currently 25 kt and peak seas
are up to 10-11 ft. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with this area of low pressure has decreased slightly over the
last few hours, however, further development is still expected.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 420 nm in the
NW semicircle of the low. A tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 kt. The system is then expected to
turn west-northwestward early next week as it moves over the
central tropical Atlantic. The formation chance through 48 hours
is high. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

[cycloneye]

TWO 8 PM:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 10
to 15 mph. The system is then expected to turn west-northwestward
early next week as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 90, 2023092300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 350W, 25, 1008, DB

[cycloneye]

A CDO may be forming.

[zzzh]

ASCAT shows a classic wave structure.

[cycloneye]

Best Track:

AL, 90, 2023092300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 350W, 25, 1008, DB

https://i.imgur.com/NHz3ygb.png

Hi my friend. To let you know that edited the post to add the 00z graphic of best track as you had the 18z one.