ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[REDHurricane]

It's dealing with a significant amount of shear:

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2023073100, , BEST, 0, 220N, 515W, 30, 1011, LO

[cycloneye]

Up to 1.5.

TXNT22 KNES 310018
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L)

B. 31/0000Z

C. 22.0N

D. 52.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25
DEGREES FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. MET IS 1.0. PT
IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[zzzh]

Not a TD.

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/9HPg0EM.jpg
Not a TD.

Oh wow that's not nearly as close to being a TD as I thought it was. Good call by NHC not upgrading it then

[Woofde]

Not a TD.

Yikes, yeah that's a mess. The area that's closest to becoming a circulation is well displaced from the convection too. It's going to need some time

[ElectricStorm]

0z revised to 35kts

96L INVEST 230731 0000 21.8N 51.7W ATL 35 1011

[LarryWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be marginally favorable for development over the next few days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so.
The system is expected to move northwestward at about 15 mph today,
and then turn northward over the central subtropical Atlantic by
late tonight or Tuesday. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

96L looks to have no real change over night, now that the sun is coming up we will get a much better view on it.

Source - https://col.st/j1SEK

[Teban54]

The 8am TWO changed from "marginally favorable" to "sufficiently favorable".

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 700 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. However, the system does not currently
have a well-defined center of circulation. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be sufficiently favorable for development over the
next few days, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form
during the next day or so. The system is expected to move
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph today, and then turn northward over
the central subtropical Atlantic by late tonight or Tuesday.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2023073112, , BEST, 0, 223N, 530W, 35, 1011, LO

[cycloneye]

The LLC is separating more and more from the convection.

[Kingarabian]

Best chance for development will be in about 24 hours I believe.

[gatorcane]

The LLC is separating more and more from the convection.

https://i.imgur.com/hHw0K1J.gif

Not a good sign for development. The GFS also no longer shows development with 96l merging with a front a few days. The NHC might want to consider lowering development chances.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Looks terrible right now, way worse than yesterday. Has a lot of work to do to become a TC. Might have a better chance right before it merges with the front but that will probably be a very small window.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 650 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
have become less organized since last night. However, the system is
producing a small area of gale-force winds well to the east of the
center. Environmental conditions still appear somewhat conducive
for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop during the
next couple of days while the system moves northwestward and then
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

96L is looking a mess with the low circulation split form the upper circulation,

[wxman57]

Looking like we'll have to wait for later in August for Emily. Or, with any luck, September.