WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ntxw]

Can definitely see the shear pattern effecting Dora. She's about to cross the IDL and is 47+ units. Should cross 50 not long from now.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 11 2023

New deep convection continued to develop within the eyewall of Dora
earlier this morning. However, more recent images showed that the
eye has become cloud-filled. In addition, impacts of stronger
vertical shear were becoming increasingly apparent, with the
high level outflow being restricted in the southern quadrant and
the cyclone's overall appearance in the upper levels becoming very
asymmetric. Dora's center is on the limbs of the GOES-18 and
Himawari fields of view. Microwave passes have helped with the
center adjustments, but the long distance from the geostationary
nadir points on both satellites coupled with the cloud-filled eye
has resulted in a greater than usual uncertainty in the initial
position. Dvorak fixes came in at 102 kt from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB.
The ADT and AiDT estimates were 92 and 88 kt, respectively. Based on
a blend of these estimates, and the degradation of Dora's
appearance in the satellite images, the initial intensity for this
advisory is lowered to 95 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is 295/16kt. This motion is
expected to continue over the next 48 hours as Dora moves along the
southwest flank of a deep layer anticyclone centered to the
northeast. Dora's forward motion is expected to become slower
gradually and turn more northwestward as it moves toward a weakness
in the ridge produced by an upper level trough to the northwest.
The spread of the guidance envelope is larger than previous
advisories. This is likely due to differences in the location and
strength of the upper level trough in the various models. The
forecast track for this advisory has been shifted slightly south of
the previous advisory and is aligned with the trend of the TVCE
consensus.

Dora's intensity is expected to continue to decrease through the
forecast period. Based on the track forecast, SSTs under the
tropical cyclone should remain above 28C. The main issue at this
point is the strength of the vertical shear. GFS and ECMWF
guidance shows an increase in the vertical shear over the next 48
hours. However, there are significant differences in shear strength,
with the shear in the ECMWF remaining at moderate to strong
levels beyond 48 hours, and the GFS shear becoming much weaker. The
intensity forecast is generally in line with the previous advisory
and is close to a blend of the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B.

This is the final advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system. The next bulletin will be issued by RSMC
Tokyo, Japan unless re-entry or slow-down occurs. For U.S.
interests, see the public advisories issued by the U.S. NWS Weather
Forecast Office in Guam, and Department of Defense warnings issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 15.3N 179.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 16.2N 178.7E 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.3N 176.4E 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 18.0N 174.4E 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 18.6N 172.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 19.1N 170.7E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 20.0N 169.2E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 22.0N 167.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 24.5N 166.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kodama

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

JMA 00Z is now doing sat fix, TC warning coming soon

001027 WMO LONG STORM NAME 'Dora '
019150 TYPHOON INTERNATIONAL COMMON NUMBER (TYPHOON COMMITTEE) '2308'
019106 IDENTIFICATION NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 10
008005 METEOROLOGICAL ATTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANCE 1
005002 LATITUDE (COARSE ACCURACY) 15.48
006002 LONGITUDE (COARSE ACCURACY) 179.96
008005 METEOROLOGICAL ATTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANCE None
019107 TIME INTERVAL OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ANALYSIS 4
019005 DIRECTION OF MOTION OF FEATURE 289
019006 SPEED OF MOTION OF FEATURE 9.26
019108 ACCURACY OF GEOGRAPHICAL POSITION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2
019109 MEAN DIAMETER OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1
019110 APPARENT 24-HOUR CHANGE IN INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 2
019111 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5.0
019112 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4.5
019113 CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 4
019114 MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4.0
019115 TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) -1.0
019116 PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4.5
019117 CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 1
019118 FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4.5
019119 TYPE OF THE FINAL T-NUMBER 1

[cycloneye]

Wow, from Africa, thru Caribbean as 95L, moving thru East Pacific and Central Pacific and here we are with Dora as Typhoon in WPAC.

[Woofde]

Wow, from Africa, thru Caribbean as 95L, moving thru East Pacific and Central Pacific and here we are with Dora as Typhoon in WPAC.

The WPac tag is kinda surreal. It feels like yesterday we were tracking it as a potential hurricane in the Atlantic. Now its on the other side of the planet. Love how weather works like that

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We did it!

[Category5Kaiju]

We did it!

https://i.imgur.com/DPdreDM.jpg

Wind shear and dry air: "Oh man!"

[xtyphooncyclonex]

T2308(Dora)
Issued at 2023/08/12 01:30 UTC
Analysis at 08/12 00 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°30′ (15.5°)
E180°00′ (180.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 55 km (30 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area N220 km (120 NM)
S165 km (90 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

Full-disk image as of 01Z today from Elektro-L4, Russia's new geostationary satellite positioned at 165.8E. This satellite has filled in a wide gap between Himawari-9 (140.7E) and GOES-West (137.2W) and is now in the most favorable spot to monitor Dora.

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 047
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 180.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 180.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.8N 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.0N 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.7N 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.5N 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.6N 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.3N 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 27.1N 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 179.4E.
12AUG23. TYPHOON 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609 NM WEST OF
JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS 972 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.6N 180.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 609 NM WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
DORA THE EXPLORER HAS DISCOVERED HER THIRD BASIN, CROSSING FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC, AND IS NOW KNOWN AS
TYPHOON 05E. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A VANISHING EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN
THE CENTER OF THE STORM. DORA'S INNER CORE REMAINS REMARKABLY
COMPACT, WITH AN 111846Z RCM-3 SAR PASS SHOWING A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ONLY 6 NM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET BASED ON A BLEND
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY
POLEWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST. SOME MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT
MAGNITUDE IS NOW IMPACTING THE STORM, AND THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST HAS ACCORDINGLY BECOME ASYMMETRIC.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
PHFO: T5.5 - 102 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 05E (DORA) CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
THROUGH ITS DECAY PHASE, AS THE COMPACT INNER CORE IS VULNERABLE TO
EVEN MODERATE SHEAR, AND SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOW
DISRUPTING THE CORE STRUCTURE. THIS SHEAR MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS DORA ROUNDS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO A CUT-OFF LOW,
PREVENTING SHEAR FROM BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO KILL DORA QUICKLY.
RATHER, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SHEAR AND DRY AIR PROGRESSIVELY ERODE DORA'S STRUCTURE. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DORA TO RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY IN 4-5 DAYS
IF THE UPPER LOW BACKS AWAY ENOUGH TO LOWER SHEAR VALUES FOR A
TIME, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF DORA IS LEFT AT THAT
MOMENT. FOR NOW, THE JTWC FORECAST SHOWS DECAY TO A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT-TERM DUE TO THE GENERALLY
WEAK REPRESENTATION THAT MOST MODELS HAVE OF DORA DUE TO ITS TINY
NATURE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.6N 180.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 609 NM WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
DORA THE EXPLORER HAS DISCOVERED HER THIRD BASIN, CROSSING FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC, AND IS NOW KNOWN AS
TYPHOON 05E. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A VANISHING EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN
THE CENTER OF THE STORM. DORA'S INNER CORE REMAINS REMARKABLY
COMPACT, WITH AN 111846Z RCM-3 SAR PASS SHOWING A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ONLY 6 NM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET BASED ON A BLEND
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY
POLEWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST. SOME MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT
MAGNITUDE IS NOW IMPACTING THE STORM, AND THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST HAS ACCORDINGLY BECOME ASYMMETRIC.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
PHFO: T5.5 - 102 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 05E (DORA) CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
THROUGH ITS DECAY PHASE, AS THE COMPACT INNER CORE IS VULNERABLE TO
EVEN MODERATE SHEAR, AND SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOW
DISRUPTING THE CORE STRUCTURE. THIS SHEAR MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS DORA ROUNDS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO A CUT-OFF LOW,
PREVENTING SHEAR FROM BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO KILL DORA QUICKLY.
RATHER, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SHEAR AND DRY AIR PROGRESSIVELY ERODE DORA'S STRUCTURE. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DORA TO RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY IN 4-5 DAYS
IF THE UPPER LOW BACKS AWAY ENOUGH TO LOWER SHEAR VALUES FOR A
TIME, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF DORA IS LEFT AT THAT
MOMENT. FOR NOW, THE JTWC FORECAST SHOWS DECAY TO A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT-TERM DUE TO THE GENERALLY
WEAK REPRESENTATION THAT MOST MODELS HAVE OF DORA DUE TO ITS TINY
NATURE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[gib]

I get simply removing Dora's vort from the charts and seeing what the difference in wind speed is. But who is to say that Dora did not pump the ridge (It was practically a cat.4 the majority of its life time) as they both moved west in tandem. Eventually resulting in stronger than normal trade winds over the islands.

Yeah. I understand the analysis done in the tweet linked by cycloneye in post 483, but somehow 3 kts feels like an underestimate. That's just my intuition though, I have nothing concrete to base it on. I do think if we could have magically removed Dora's influence, whatever it was, conditions would have still been quite windy over Maui and the rest of the state. How such an alternate universe scenario would have played out is anyone's guess.

[REDHurricane]

18z HAFS-B shows Dora pulling a John and experiencing a resurgence in the subtropical latitudes about 5 days out

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 16.4N 179.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 735 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH ITS NORTHERN FLANK GETTING
FRAYED AND SHEARED POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SLIT OF A REMNANT EYE THAT LINED UP WELL
WITH A RAGGED BUT DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 120419Z GPM IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT REFLECTS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
LOWER CORE. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 120530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON DORA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK PASSING WAKE ISLAND APPROXIMATELY 197NM TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND TAU 60. AROUND TAU 72, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME WORSE
WITH INCREASING VWS AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BY
TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO JUST 216NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTERWARD,
THE NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AND ERRATICALLY,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

WTPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 178.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.0N 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.8N 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.7N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.7N 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.6N 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.8N 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.2N 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 177.6E. 12AUG23.
TYPHOON 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM
EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.1N 178.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 667 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH ITS NORTHERN FLANK GETTING
FRAYED AND SHEARED POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SLIT OF A REMNANT EYE THAT LINED UP
WELL WITH A RAGGED BUT DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 120419Z GPM IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT REFLECTS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
LOWER CORE. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
PHFO: T5.0 - 90 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON DORA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK PASSING WAKE ISLAND APPROXIMATELY 215NM TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
141800Z. AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME WORSE WITH
INCREASING VWS AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL TEMPER THE WEAKENING DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU
120 WHEN IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO JUST 218NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTERWARD,
THE NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AND ERRATICALLY,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Long question. Does anyone has all the journey since the date it emerged West Africa,when it was classified as Invest 95L, when it crossed to EPAC and from there the whole three basins track? It is a great track to have for historic perspective.

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 050//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.6N 176.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 810 NM WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING
TOWARDS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS. IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT
IN AGREEMENT WITH AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL REMAINS ESTABLISHED INTO THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
PINCHING OFF INTO A CUTOFF LOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 121730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: DORA CONTINUES TO DECAY AS MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ERODES ITS INNER CORE. GRADUAL TO
STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS SHEAR HOLDS AT THIS MAGNITUDE DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. AS DORA TURNS NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF
THIS TROUGH, THE TROUGH WILL PINCH OFF INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND
WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS, DORA MAY ENCOUNTER LOWER SHEAR DURING AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE 72-120 HOUR PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT MAY END UP POSITIONED ON THE UPSHEAR (SOUTHWEST) SIDE OF DORA
DURING THIS TIME, REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF DRY VENTILATION OF THE
VORTEX. THESE FACTORS COULD LEAD TO A REINTENSIFICATION OF DORA IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST, A SCENARIO THAT IS NOW ESPOUSED
BY THE GFS, HAFS-A, HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THAT DORA SIMPLY DISSIPATES PRIOR TO THIS WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY, ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
THE JTWC FORECAST SHOWS REINTENSIFICATION TO 50 KT AT 120 HOURS
AFTER WEAKENING TO A MINIMUM OF 45 KT DURING THE 72-96 HOUR
TIMEFRAME. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD EXPLODES TO LARGE VALUES AT 96-120
HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY DORA WILL REACH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND GET USHERED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INDUCE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 120 HOURS OR SO, BUT THIS TIMING COULD
CHANGE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL INTERACTION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE WEAK REPRESENTATION OF DORA
IN SOME MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS, SUCH AS ECMWF, WHICH SHOW A
SHALLOW VORTEX THAT IS STEERED MORE WESTWARD, LIKELY
UNREALISTICALLY SO. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MEAN OF HAFS-A, HWRF, COAMPS-TC, AND GFS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN