ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8938/7voQIG.gif

Bye. Bye!

[wxman57]

Recon arriving now. I'm not sure it still has a closed circulation. We'll find out soon.

[NDG]

Recon arriving now. I'm not sure it still has a closed circulation. We'll find out soon.

Why would you not think it has a closed circulation, Aruba's airport reported west winds as it tracked over the northern section of the Island, now reporting SSW winds.
BTW, St Lucia this past hour reported a wind gust of 55 mph.

[NDG]

Still has a closed circulation, pressure is higher, not surprising.

F305 0403A BRET HDOB 15 20230622
234430 1321N 06022W 7097 03019 0039 +131 +074 047018 019 035 001 00
234500 1320N 06020W 7298 02783 0046 +138 +112 036014 018 029 000 00
234530 1319N 06019W 7505 02548 0044 +155 +121 036013 014 026 001 00
234600 1318N 06018W 7713 02314 0047 +166 +121 048013 014 025 000 00
234630 1316N 06016W 7916 02090 0049 +175 +123 076010 013 024 000 00
234700 1315N 06015W 8131 01860 0056 +179 +149 147006 008 023 000 00
234730 1314N 06014W 8341 01639 0059 +179 +173 161011 012 023 000 00
234800 1313N 06013W 8429 01539 0050 +184 +172 168011 012 021 000 00
234830 1312N 06014W 8429 01537 0043 +190 +172 152006 010 /// /// 03
234900 1311N 06015W 8427 01539 0044 +188 +175 147004 005 018 000 00
234930 1310N 06016W 8433 01532 0042 +190 +168 262002 003 018 000 00
235000 1309N 06018W 8430 01534 0043 +190 +170 283006 007 017 000 00
235030 1308N 06019W 8426 01538 0042 +189 +174 268009 009 014 000 03
235100 1306N 06017W 8437 01528 0045 +185 +177 253010 011 016 000 03
235130 1305N 06016W 8429 01537 0048 +182 +179 242011 012 018 000 00
235200 1304N 06015W 8430 01537 0047 +185 +179 228011 012 017 000 00
235230 1303N 06014W 8432 01534 0046 +190 +167 211014 016 017 000 00
235300 1302N 06012W 8434 01533 0044 +191 +171 211017 017 016 000 00
235330 1301N 06011W 8432 01537 0046 +194 +163 209019 019 016 000 00
235400 1300N 06010W 8429 01538 0047 +193 +161 213018 019 023 001 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Closed circulation with no deep convection close to its center.

[Woofde]

We are getting very close to a naked swirl alert. The LLC is rapidly racing away from its convection.

[wxman57]

Recon arriving now. I'm not sure it still has a closed circulation. We'll find out soon.

Why would you not think it has a closed circulation, Aruba's airport reported west winds as it tracked over the northern section of the Island, now reporting SSW winds.
BTW, St Lucia this past hour reported a wind gust of 55 mph.

The plane is finding a small closed LLC far west of the convection. No wind near it. Not sure if there is one center or multiple weak centers, or if it is elongated yet. So far, max sustained wind may be about 40 kts. They'll have to fly 180 miles east of the center to find any squalls. It sort of lacks the organized squalls around the center part of a TC. Possible that it may open up into a wave at any time over the next 6-12 hrs.

[GCANE]

Possibility Brett may come back around 75W
Minimal shear then and extreme CAPE forecasted by GPS

[cycloneye]

AL, 03, 2023062300, , BEST, 0, 132N, 603W, 55, 1004, TS

[GCANE]

Also minimal shear when Brett is at 65.5W at the bottom of the trof.
CAPE not so high here though

[RT23]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8938/7voQIG.gif

Bye. Bye!

Large convection flare up SW of Barbados, quite significant cold tops

[wxman57]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8938/7voQIG.gif

Bye. Bye!

Large convection flare up SW of Barbados, quite significant cold tops

I don't see anything SW of Barbados but cirrus clouds. Bret appears done. Not much chance of it coming back until it moves into the East Pac next week. Questionable whether it qualifies as a TS now. It's certainly not a 55 kt TS, based on recon.

[RT23]

Bye. Bye!

Large convection flare up SW of Barbados, quite significant cold tops

I don't see anything SW of Barbados but cirrus clouds.

Correction SE....

[wxman57]

Large convection flare up SW of Barbados, quite significant cold tops

I don't see anything SW of Barbados but cirrus clouds.

Correction SE....

I thought you might have meant SE. That convection is 175 miles from the weak center. I see the plane found about 48kt winds NE of the center, which is higher than FL winds, making the wind suspect.

[RT23]

I don't see anything SW of Barbados but cirrus clouds.

Correction SE....

I thought you might have meant SE. That convection is 175 miles from the weak center.

Ye, but am concerned with what we in Barbados will be faced with in the next few hours. We already have a few fallen trees around.

[GCANE]

Tons off moisture flowing into the middle-level circulation.
South American coast is exploding with convection.
Waves / TC have a tendency to strengthen on the SW side of a trof.
Albeit, steering still has it slamming into Honduras at this point.

[GCANE]

That MCS / Tower east of Barbados looks nasty.
Big helicity.
Tons of moisture streaming up ahead of it.
Stay safe everyone.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

That MCS / Tower east of Barbados looks nasty.
Big helicity.
Tons of moisture streaming up ahead of it.
Stay safe everyone.

How far away is this

[NDG]

Still a well closed circulation to me, this past hour St Lucia had a wind gust of 69 mph.

Name:Hewanorra International Airport
Provider:ASOS/AWOS
Valid:22 Jun 9:00 PM EDT
Temp:79 °F26 °C
Dew Point:73 °F23 °C
Relh:84 %
Wind Speed:41 mph36 kts
Wind Dir:E80°
Gust:69 mph60 kts
Altimeter:29.83 in

[Sciencerocks]