ATL: BRET - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
sphelps8681
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#61 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Jun 19, 2023 10:52 am

Gums wrote:Salute!

I am wondering why many models have the new storm re-curving as I thot it would due to the developing El Nino versus models having it continuing across the Carrib as many early storms do.

Here on GoM coast, last thing we need this early summer is a strong storm. We have had plenty of bad wx already.

Gums wonders...


Yea I know. Had a tree come through my living room last Saturday during storm. Not ready for a TS or Hurricane. Still waiting on Contractors. Lumberton, Tx.
3 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8765
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#62 Postby aspen » Mon Jun 19, 2023 11:07 am

12z GFS is noticeably weaker, with a mid-grade TS taking pretty much the exact track as the forecast cone.

12z CMC incorrectly initializes this as a broad open wave, so its weak solution can be discarded. 12z ICON is also too weak.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#63 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Jun 19, 2023 12:53 pm

Definitely seems to be a westward trend, but that doesn't discount the potential that the system is still at hurricane intensity when it goes through the islands.
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2034
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#64 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Jun 19, 2023 2:19 pm

Image

Some of the islands will get impacted by TD3/Bret. But it's up in the air if it gets up toward PR & the VI yet or not.
0 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3118
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#65 Postby Teban54 » Mon Jun 19, 2023 2:33 pm

NHC has TD3/Bret at 1008mb for the 18z 6/19 best track. Comparing this to various model runs:

  • 12z HMON: 1011 mb at 18z 6/19, doesn't get to 1008 mb until 21z 6/20. Peak 994 mb.
  • 6z HMON: 1010 mb at 18z 6/19, doesn't get to 1007 mb until 21z 6/20. Peak 991 mb.
  • 12z HWRF: 1007 mb at 18z 6/19. Still running, down to 963 mb so far.
  • 6z HWRF: 1007 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 955 mb.
  • 6z HAFS-A: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 982 mb.
  • 6z HAFS-B: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 984 mb (right at LA landfall).
  • 12z GFS: 1005 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 993 mb.
  • 6z GFS: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 970 mb (while recurving).
  • 12z Euro: 1010 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 1005 mb.
  • 6z Euro: 1009 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 1001 mb.

While it's tempting to write off HWRF and HAFS A/B as being overly aggressive, they are the closest in terms of current intensity. HMON, despite being the "sane" one among hurricane models, ends up way underestimating Bret's short-term evolution.
Last edited by Teban54 on Mon Jun 19, 2023 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
JetFuel_SE
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#66 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon Jun 19, 2023 4:55 pm

Teban54 wrote:NHC has TD3/Bret at 1008mb for the 18z 6/19 best track. Comparing this to various model runs:

  • 12z HMON: 1011 mb at 18z 6/19, doesn't get to 1008 mb until 21z 6/20. Peak 994 mb.
  • 6z HMON: 1010 mb at 18z 6/19, doesn't get to 1007 mb until 21z 6/20. Peak 991 mb.
  • 12z HWRF: 1007 mb at 18z 6/19. Still running, down to 963 mb so far.
  • 6z HWRF: 1007 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 955 mb.
  • 6z HAFS-A: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 982 mb.
  • 6z HAFS-B: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 984 mb (right at LA landfall).
  • 12z GFS: 1005 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 993 mb.
  • 6z GFS: 1006 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 970 mb (while recurving).
  • 12z Euro: 1010 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 1005 mb.
  • 6z Euro: 1009 mb at 18z 6/19. Peak 1001 mb.

While it's tempting to write off HWRF and HAFS A/B as being overly aggressive, they are the closest in terms of current intensity. HMON, despite being the "sane" one among hurricane models, ends up way underestimating Bret's short-term evolution.

It's almost like hurricane models have issues when they don't have recon data to work with.
0 likes   

StormPyrate
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:41 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#67 Postby StormPyrate » Mon Jun 19, 2023 5:04 pm

Long range GPS ensembles point at what could be the remnants of Brent reforming in the gulf and heading north.
How likely is that to really happen?
0 likes   
St Petersburg Florida

User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 757
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#68 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Jun 19, 2023 5:22 pm

StormPyrate wrote:Long range GPS ensembles point at what could be the remnants of Brent reforming in the gulf and heading north.

Don't see it....: Maybe 1 or 2 members, but more members into CA.
Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5264
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#69 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jun 19, 2023 5:46 pm

Levi noted on his tropical tidbits update tonight that the GFS model is showing some shear inhibiting intensification beyond -50 west. There was about 20 knots of shear in the hodograph for that area. Just means they think it will outrun the ridge a little sooner and stay a tropical storm.

A hurricane might track a little further north over Guadeloupe but hopefully it will cross the islands at tropical storm intensity or less.

The recon flight Wednesday will have real time shear analysis which will be more valuable.
0 likes   

User avatar
JetFuel_SE
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#70 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon Jun 19, 2023 11:46 pm

Nimbus wrote:Levi noted on his tropical tidbits update tonight that the GFS model is showing some shear inhibiting intensification beyond -50 west. There was about 20 knots of shear in the hodograph for that area. Just means they think it will outrun the ridge a little sooner and stay a tropical storm.

A hurricane might track a little further north over Guadeloupe but hopefully it will cross the islands at tropical storm intensity or less.

The recon flight Wednesday will have real time shear analysis which will be more valuable.

Models have overestimated shear several times in the past, most notably with Michael.
0 likes   

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1367
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#71 Postby Jr0d » Tue Jun 20, 2023 2:48 am

Spacecoast wrote:
StormPyrate wrote:Long range GPS ensembles point at what could be the remnants of Brent reforming in the gulf and heading north.

Don't see it....: Maybe 1 or 2 members, but more members into CA.
https://i.ibb.co/QcFqtNR/ec2.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/N2tzc2P/ec1.jpg


Look at the individual ensemble run on Tropical Tidbits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 62000&fh=6
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15420
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#72 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:30 am

HWRF all alone, most models now show Bret becoming a hurricane very questionable, time to retire it sooner than later.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15420
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#73 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 20, 2023 1:40 pm

12z Euro with its strongest run on Bret since at least Saturday night's run.
0 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2457
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#74 Postby kevin » Tue Jun 20, 2023 2:37 pm

Hurricane models are all over the place again.

12z HWRF
Initializes as 35 kt, 1008 mb. Hurricane at +42 hrs, MH at +63. Peaks at 951 mb, 113 kt before making landfall in Puerto Rico.
Image

12z HMON
Initializes as 35 kt, 1007 mb. Never truly gets its act together, though it does peak at 55 kt before reaching the islands.
Image

12z HAFS-A
Initializes as 38 kt, 1008 mb. Hurricane at +42 hrs and reaches the islands as a ~70 kt hurricane. Slowly falls apart afterwards.
Image

12z HAFS-B
Initializes as 38 kt, 1008 mb. Has some sporadic frames above 65 kt but nothing consistent. Does remain a TS until after it passes the islands and fluctuates between the 50 and 65 kt range until then.
Image
7 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5264
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#75 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jun 20, 2023 6:14 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:
Nimbus wrote:Levi noted on his tropical tidbits update tonight that the GFS model is showing some shear inhibiting intensification beyond -50 west. There was about 20 knots of shear in the hodograph for that area. Just means they think it will outrun the ridge a little sooner and stay a tropical storm.

A hurricane might track a little further north over Guadeloupe but hopefully it will cross the islands at tropical storm intensity or less.

The recon flight Wednesday will have real time shear analysis which will be more valuable.

Models have overestimated shear several times in the past, most notably with Michael.


That is why I'm waiting for the recon data.
They will have real time altitude column data for moisture and shear.
SST's are heating up as Bret moves west which might be why he hasn't outrun his small CDO yet.
HWRF is the outlier, must be less than 5% chance of that solution verifying.
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2034
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#76 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Jun 20, 2023 11:38 pm

The 0z GFS and 0z CMC are hinting that Bret or its remnants eventually crosses into the East Pacific and develops out there.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15420
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#77 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:08 am

Latest 06z Euro has Bret clipping the northern end of Barbados but strongest winds staying north of the Island, near 50 mph wind gusts at the most in the Island but near 70 mph wind gusts in St Lucia.

Image
3 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2034
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#78 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Jun 21, 2023 4:28 pm

12z Euro ensembles for Bret have a few branching off to to the north that the earlier runs did not have:

Image
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19924
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#79 Postby tolakram » Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:36 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2034
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: BRET - Models

#80 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Jun 22, 2023 5:32 am

Euro ensembles still not 100% convinced we're going to be done with Bret in the longer term.

 https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot/status/1671826150044344321


0 likes   


Return to “2023”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests