ATL: DON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: DON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 11, 2023 7:25 am

AL, 94, 2023071112, , BEST, 0, 365N, 554W, 25, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al742023 to al942023,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3986
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 11, 2023 7:34 am

Ready for 5 Atlantic storms? :lol:
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 11, 2023 8:09 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4939
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#4 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Jul 11, 2023 8:12 am

Has some work to do but should have a decent chance to become Don in the next few days.
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8788
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jul 11, 2023 11:04 am

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 11, 2023 12:13 pm

No changes in the percents.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
some development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the system
moves generally eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn
northward bringing the system over cooler waters, likely limiting
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 11, 2023 6:30 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located more than 500 miles
east-northeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms well removed to the south of its center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical depression
could form during the next few days while the system moves generally
eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn northward bringing the
system over cooler waters, potentially limiting additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 12, 2023 7:53 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located more than 500 miles east-northeast
of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms well to the south of its center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form during the next few days while the system moves
generally eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn northward
bringing the system over cooler waters, potentially limiting
additional development. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts, issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly/Berg
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 12, 2023 12:44 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located a little more than 700 miles east of
Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the south of its center. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for this system to become a
subtropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while
it meanders over the central Atlantic. By the weekend, the low
should turn northward bringing the system over cooler waters,
potentially limiting additional development. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts, issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Berg
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8788
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jul 12, 2023 1:52 pm

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 12, 2023 6:36 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located more than 700 miles east of Bermuda
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily to the southeast of its center. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be marginally conducive for this system to become a
subtropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while
it meanders over the central Atlantic. By the weekend, the low
should turn northward bringing the system over cooler waters,
potentially limiting additional development. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts, issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8788
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#12 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 13, 2023 2:33 am

Image
0 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 584
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Jul 13, 2023 6:17 am

Here's the area at dawn 1100 UTC this morning, looks like a chaotic system with several eddies in the circulation. There looks to be one that is tucked under the clouds with convection happing.

Source - https://col.st/6a8kJ

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:55 am

AL, 94, 2023071312, , BEST, 0, 311N, 482W, 35, 1004, LO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8788
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:05 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4939
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:42 am

It's a mess right now, definitely a lot of work to do to become a TC. If models are correct though it should have a better chance once it turns north. Probably still a good chance this eventually becomes a TS, but it will take a bit.

If the GFS is correct, this may be around for a bit as it loops back around.
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2351
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#17 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Jul 13, 2023 10:30 am

Looks like it starting to organize. Has a subtropical look to it. Several low level spins, but the MLC is quickly improving.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1367
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#18 Postby Jr0d » Thu Jul 13, 2023 10:40 am

Regardless if it becomes fully tropical, it the models suggest it will be spinning around for at least a week making a clockwise loop. Not likely it will strengthen significantly, but with that much time perhaps it will find a day or two of favorable conditions, surprise us and briefly become the first hurricane of the season(though unlikely)

I do expect this to become Don this weekend.
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8788
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 13, 2023 12:14 pm

Image

Looks to be developing a LLC under the convection. I'd expect don within 24 hours if trend continues.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22771
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 13, 2023 12:31 pm

NHC may be starting advisories shortly. Convection developing over center. Could have TS or STS Don by 21Z. Let's see what their 18Z outlook says. It would stay weak and make a slow clockwise loop in the middle of nowhere over the coming week.
2 likes   


Return to “2023”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests