ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 28, 2023 1:31 pm

AL, 96, 2023072818, , BEST, 0, 140N, 387W, 20, 1012, DB


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 28, 2023 2:14 pm

Looks like early guidance thinks this will recurve and not even be a threat to Bermuda.
Hopefully it leaves a weakness for the next one to follow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 28, 2023 2:26 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Jul 28, 2023 4:03 pm

Ordinarily in late July, I would be hesitant to predict a storm that hasn't formed yet to be a fish, but so far, the models seem pretty tightly clustered on the recurve idea. There is still time for things to change, especially if development is delayed, but recurving before land seems like a good bet for now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby Jr0d » Fri Jul 28, 2023 5:22 pm

While unlikely, I suppose this area could split in two, with a storm developing and moving north while the other piece stays weak and moves west into the Caribbean towards the LA/GA islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Jul 28, 2023 6:06 pm

I think a weak, recurving TS is most likely here. But if goes east of Bermuda it would be nice to see a hurricane but that's probably a low chance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 28, 2023 6:25 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jul 28, 2023 6:46 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 28, 2023 6:48 pm

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands
and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable
for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form early next week while the
disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 28, 2023 7:37 pm

It would be great to see this become a formidable, OTS hurricane that then gives 2023 more "active season bragging rights" :lol:

I'm rooting for you, 96L!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jul 29, 2023 12:03 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby abajan » Sat Jul 29, 2023 4:42 am

No change in formation chances:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands
and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable
for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kelly/Beven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 29, 2023 6:41 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized cloudiness and showers located about 1100 miles east of
the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early part of next week.
The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 15 mph during the next day or so, and then
turn north-northwestward to northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic Monday and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 29, 2023 7:46 am

AL, 96, 2023072912, , BEST, 0, 166N, 441W, 20, 1013, DB


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 29, 2023 8:11 am

Looks like a skeleton.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 29, 2023 8:20 am

cycloneye wrote:Looks like a skeleton.

https://i.imgur.com/0aW64ZC.gif


Too much dry air. Conditions don’t really get favorable enough until it moves north into the subtropical Atlantic and out of the MDR.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby abajan » Sat Jul 29, 2023 10:32 am

cycloneye wrote:Looks like a skeleton.

https://i.imgur.com/0aW64ZC.gif


Definitely looks less vigorous than yesterday. The dry air is affecting it. They should probably reduce the 2-day development chance in the next TWO to 10%, if not 0%. Seven days is a long way out. So, I'd leave that at 70% for now, I guess.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:22 am

The Apex of the wave is already closing in on 18N so still no danger for the islands regardless of development.
The Bermuda high displacement this year is comforting for now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby LarryWx » Sat Jul 29, 2023 12:06 pm

Nimbus wrote:The Apex of the wave is already closing in on 18N so still no danger for the islands regardless of development.
The Bermuda high displacement this year is comforting for now.


Bermuda high is often displaced favorably in El Niño
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 29, 2023 12:34 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized cloudiness and showers located about 1100 miles east of
the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave and broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next few
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early
part of next week. The disturbance is expected to move
northwestward at about 15 mph during the next day or so, and then
turn northward over the central subtropical Atlantic by late Monday
or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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