WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2023072918, , BEST, 0, 134N, 919W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009, SPAWNINVEST, ep792023 to ep962023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep962023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[ElectricStorm]

This could be the next hurricane and might have a chance to become the next major, especially if it dives SW like the 12z GFS has.

[cycloneye]

GFS is alone developing a hurricane, as Euro and CMC barely develop a Tropical Storm.

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Vigorous MLC. We'll see how it holds up when it starts moving NW.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, It tracks south of Hawaii as a TS.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
southwest of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a tropical
wave and broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression will
likely form early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Kelly/Beven

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2023073000, , BEST, 0, 135N, 937W, 25, 1009, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of
the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a tropical wave and
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are favorable
for gradual development, and a tropical depression will likely form
early this week while the system moves west-northwestward at near
15 mph, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2023073012, , BEST, 0, 145N, 967W, 25, 1009, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located to the south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear to be
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at near 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Wow, very bullish 12z Euro run.

[Yellow Evan]

Northeasterly shear (bc the subtropical jet will influence the ULAC orientation) will be a hindrance in the 2-4 day timeframe but southwesterly motion due to a building ridge to its north will keep this over warm SSTs for an unusually extended time. Long tracker inbound?

[Yellow Evan]

CPAC should be pretty open for business in 10 days with upper easterlies. A bit puzzled why GFS fizzles it out there given the low shear it is modeling there.

[Ntxw]

Yeah agree this one has high ceiling for ACE on southerly route. 30+ ACE is possible.

[Yellow Evan]

Nice curved band but surface is messy and lacking in central organized convection. Likely a day away.

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2023073018, , BEST, 0, 138N, 985W, 30, 1007, LO