SPAC: INVEST 96S

[cycloneye]

SH, 96, 2024010800, , BEST, 0, 84S, 781E, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 962024.dat

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.9S 78.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 78.8E, APPROXIMATELY 383 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE CIRCULATION IS
PASSING OVER VERY WARM WATER (29-30C) BUT CURRENTLY LIES IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. INVEST 96S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AN
EQUATORWARD TRACK INTO A ZONE OF HIGHER SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.9S 78.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 78.7E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 1548Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH 20KT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BANDING CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. ENVIROMENTAL ANYLSIS INDICATES 96S IS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT BASED ON HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-
35KTS) AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.