SPAC: PAUL - Remnants

[Subtrop]

97P INVEST 240409 0000 10.5S 152.3E SHEM 15 1008

[Hurricane2022]

22P TWENTYTWO 240410 1800 13.8S 154.2E SHEM 35 1000

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1909 UTC 10/04/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Paul
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 154.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (128 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 11/0000: 13.9S 154.6E: 040 (075): 040 (075): 999
+12: 11/0600: 14.0S 155.0E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 996
+18: 11/1200: 13.9S 155.3E: 065 (115): 050 (095): 992
+24: 11/1800: 13.8S 155.4E: 075 (135): 055 (100): 988
+36: 12/0600: 13.5S 154.8E: 080 (150): 050 (095): 993
+48: 12/1800: 13.3S 153.9E: 100 (185): 035 (065): 1002
+60: 13/0600: 12.7S 152.2E: 125 (230): 030 (055): 1006
+72: 13/1800: 12.0S 149.8E: 160 (295): 025 (045): 1008
+96: 14/1800: 10.0S 145.4E: 170 (320): 025 (045): 1008
+120: 15/1800: 9.3S 142.0E: 185 (340): 020 (035): 1010
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Paul (13U) has formed in the far northern Coral Sea.

Paul is a small system, and has developed quickly in response to favourable
atmospheric conditions. The position is based on a 1729 UTC SSMIS microwave
pass, and is consistent with extrapolated motion from an earlier 1153 UTC
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass. Structure was also based on this pass, with a
presumed extension of gales around the centre as deep convection wraps around.

The intensity of 35 knots was based on the ASCAT-C pass and Dvorak analysis. A
curved band with wrap of 0.6-0.7 yields DT 3.0. MET and PAT are 3.0 based on
significant development in the past 24 hours. FT/CI=3.0. There are no objective
aids available as yet.

Paul has formed in a pocket of favourable environmental conditions, with low
shear, upper divergence and a good outflow channel to the south. Steering has
been towards the southeast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the east
and mid-level trough to the south.

Further development is likely over the next 24 hours as conditions remain
favourable, and Paul is forecast to reach category 2 intensity. Being a small
system, a higher intensity may be reached in this time. From Friday shear is
forecast to increase as an upper trough approaches. At the same time, dry air
to the west of the system is likely to affect the core of the cyclone, and as a
result, rapid weakening is forecast to occur. Over the weekend, the system is
forecast to move west under the influence of easterly winds in the lower levels
of the atmosphere, and it will most likely dissipate by early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Paul is not expected to have any direct impact on the
Australian continent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Paul (13U) continues to intensify in the far northeast Coral
Sea.

Paul is a small system, and continues to develop quickly in response to
favourable atmospheric conditions. Moderate confidence in the position is based
on animated VIS imagery. Structure was based on a 1153 UTC ASCAT-C
scatterometer pass, with a presumed extension of gales around the centre as
deep convection wraps around.

The intensity of 50 knots was based on Dvorak analysis. A curved band with wrap
of 0.8 yields DT 3.5. MET is 2.5 based on significant development in the past
24 hours, and PAT is adjusted to 3. FT/CI=3.5 based on DT. Objective aids
(1-minute): ADT 41kn; AiDT 33kn; DPRINT 41kn; SATCON 42kn.

Paul has formed and developed in a pocket of favourable environmental
conditions, with low shear, upper divergence and a good outflow channel to the
south and high SSTs (29.5-30C). Steering has been towards the southeast under
the influence of a mid-level ridge to the east and mid-level trough to the
south.

Further development is likely over the next 18 hours as conditions remain
favourable, and Paul is forecast to reach category 3 intensity. Being a small
system, there is a slight chance of a higher intensity (top end category 3).
Early Friday shear is forecast to increase as an upper trough approaches. At
the same time, dry air to the west of the system is likely to affect the core
of the cyclone, and as a result, rapid weakening is forecast to occur. Over the
weekend, the system is forecast to move west under the influence of easterly
winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and it will most likely dissipate
by early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Paul is not expected to have any direct impact on the
Australian continent.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:48 am EST on Friday 12 April 2024

At 4 am AEST Friday, Tropical Cyclone Paul (Category 1) with central pressure
994 hPa was located near latitude 15.0 south longitude 156.2 east, which is
about 680 km east northeast of Willis Island and 1140 km east of Cairns, and
was slow moving.

Tropical Cyclone Paul is slow moving in the far northeast Coral Sea. Paul is
weakening as environmental conditions deteriorate. It will move to the
northwest and dissipate on the weekend. It will not impact the Queensland
coast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:48 am EST on Friday 12 April 2024

At 4 am AEST Friday, Tropical Cyclone Paul (Category 1) with central pressure
994 hPa was located near latitude 15.0 south longitude 156.2 east, which is
about 680 km east northeast of Willis Island and 1140 km east of Cairns, and
was slow moving.

Tropical Cyclone Paul is slow moving in the far northeast Coral Sea. Paul is
weakening as environmental conditions deteriorate. It will move to the
northwest and dissipate on the weekend. It will not impact the Queensland
coast.