What happens when this gets into the GOM?

[jasons2k]

It's onshore in far NE Harris County. It's not over the water and it's not moving towards the water. By Wednesday the system will be close to San Antonio or Del Rio.

This has no threat of being anything tropical and really we should be discussing this in the thread in the USA Weather forum.

Well I figured since a "majority" of the convection is over the GOM then it would be appropriate to discuss it on this forum. It's not like there is are a ton of things going on it the tropics at the moment anyway.

I know, I gotcha. It's just that we already have 2 threads (not just one) already in the USA forum on this system and now we have a third thread on it here. It's hard enough keeping track of multiple threads in the same forum...and even crazier when there are threads in 2 forums...anyway...sorry to rant...just been a stressful day here...

[southerngale]

The mid level low is now located just southwest of Liberty moving slowly to the west-southwest into eastern Harris County. This low will stay out of the Gulf and will not be a risk of developing into a tropical depression.

However, more very heavy rains will likely redevelop east and southeast of the circulation center tonight and early Tuesday. This will place the Houston metro area at high risk of additional flood producing rains.

By the way, I live 28 miles southwest of Beaumont and have had 26 inches of rain since Memorial Day! Drought cancel.

Hi Greg,

Do you think the Beaumont/Port Arthur area will be too far east to be at high risk for additional flood producing rains? I saw on the KFDM board where you said more locally heavy rains were likely for our area tonight and early Tuesday, but do you anticipate the bulk of the rain to be to our west?

Also, what has kept the biggest part of the rain offshore this afternoon? It looks like it's moving north, but it never really gets anywhere, except for the lighter showers, which have been in the area off and on all day. Why is that supposed to change tonight?

If another met wants to reply as well, please do so.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

The best surface convergence has been offshore from near Galveston to Cameron during the afternoon. However, the convergence should weaken tonight in the offshore area and increase over the inland areas to the east and southeast of the mid level center.

I would think that the Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange areas would stay out of the heaviest rain. The Houston metro area may be more at risk.

[CHRISTY]

Here is a RADAR LOOP out of New Orleans... Rain seems to be of shore for right now.Things look to be improving for that area for the moment.but heavy rain is probably a good bet for areas around corpus christi.

http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/4955 ... aao3wq.gif

Edited by GD to post link instead of image. Please remember to only post the link to large images.

[southerngale]

Thanks, Greg. Hopefully we won't get much more. My friend just got water pumped out of her house in Groves from the flooding this morning. It's hard to believe we were in an extreme drought just a short time ago.

[Rainband]

Thanks, Greg. Hopefully we won't get much more. My friend just got water pumped out of her house in Groves from the flooding this morning. It's hard to believe we were in an extreme drought just a short time ago.

Thats weather for ya. I hope she is spared the rain too.

[CHRISTY]

Image was taken today....

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yes, I saw some of those pictures from the Monsoon you folks got the last two days. Believe me I feel for those folks dealing with flooding. We want rain here, but NOTHING like all that! Hope you all get some relief soon!


A2K

[southerngale]

Yes, I saw some of those pictures from the Monsoon you folks got the last two days. Believe me I feel for those folks dealing with flooding. We want rain here, but NOTHING like all that! Hope you all get some relief soon!


A2K

It's feast or famine here. We were in a really bad drought just over a month ago, hoping for rain like you. Oddly enough, our 3 biggest rains and 2 of the recent floods occurred on holidays...Mother's Day, Memorial Day, and Father's Day. I don't think I'll bother to plan a BBQ for the 4th of July.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I don't think I'll bother to plan a BBQ for the 4th of July.

Go for it... the saying is never 2 without 3.... nothing about 4!

Have a good 4th.

A2K

[GalvestonDuck]

Yes, I saw some of those pictures from the Monsoon you folks got the last two days. Believe me I feel for those folks dealing with flooding. We want rain here, but NOTHING like all that! Hope you all get some relief soon!


A2K

It's feast or famine here. We were in a really bad drought just over a month ago, hoping for rain like you. Oddly enough, our 3 biggest rains and 2 of the recent floods occurred on holidays...Mother's Day, Memorial Day, and Father's Day. I don't think I'll bother to plan a BBQ for the 4th of July.

Mother's Day this year or last year? I was working MD this year, but who can forget Mother's Day last year? That was some kind of crazy! http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=871411

[southerngale]

I meant this year. Glancing at that thread though, looks y'all had it worse than us last year on Mother's Day. We didn't flood on Mother's Day this year...that's what I meant by 2 of the recent floods occurring on holidays...one occuring on and around Memorial Day and the other yesterday and today. Well, the heavy rains started here on Saturday. Mother's Day this year was definitely the lightest of the three mentioned, but still one of the biggest rains lately because we've been in a drought and it never rains. Then it does, and it POURS, and it seems to always be on a holiday. We had outdoor plans this past Mother's Day and they were blown by the rain, but at the time, we really needed it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Whether or not this moves over the Gulf, things are not looking good for TX tonight. According to the latest NWS discussions, this system will be getting 45-50 knots of inflow off the Gulf and right up through Houston. This will lead to a major blow up of heavy rain storms (and may be some gusty winds if that inflow can be brought down to the surface in the heavy storms). I would not be surprised to see conditions very similar to that of a TD or weak TS for most of SE Texas tonight and rain totals will likely top 2-3" in MANY places.

[bigmike]

Is that part of texas below sea level. Sure does seem to flood easily.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is that part of texas below sea level. Sure does seem to flood easily.

no, but it is very flat which makes it hard to drain.

[Jagno]

Southerngale; I'm just across the Sabine from you and we've been getting significant flooding as well. Most gov't buildings and colleges were closed today due to the high waters. Unfortuneately I'm self employed so I made the swim....taking the high roads of course. Like you, we've been in a severe drought which was actually a blessing for those of us with destroyed homes following Rita. My home is rebuilt 90% but it's raining in my garage and garage apt. like a sieve. We were actually in the process of building a new garage on the opposite side of the house so that we could tear this one down and rebuild but with more rain on the way I think it's going to collapse on its own. It's definetely an all or none situation for us it seems.

[Yankeegirl]

OK... this is going to be my prediction, and you all can quote me on it at the end of the season... Now that the Houston area and all of SE Texas has been totally soaked for the past few days with the unbelieveably heavy rain, that was our tropical event of the season.. Now that we have been overrun by rain, we have gotten back to somewhat normal for the year and nature has balanced its way out... I may be wrong, but thats my prediction....

[Steve]

Hey A2K,

It's usually not as bad when you misspell your city as when you misspell your own name

Steev