Hurricane Center chief warns worse forecasts ahead if key satellite fails
By JESSICA GRESKO
Associated Press
Posted March 16 2007, 3:50 PM EDT
MIAMI -- Certain hurricane forecasts could be up to 16 percent less accurate if a key weather satellite that is already beyond its expected lifespan fails, the National Hurricane Center's new director said Friday in calling for hundreds of millions of dollars in new funding for expanded research and predictions.
Bill Proenza also told The Associated Press in an wide-ranging interview that ties between global warming and increased hurricane strength seemed a ``natural linkage.'' But he cautioned that other weather conditions currently play a larger part in determining the strength and number of hurricanes.
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One of Proenza's immediate concerns is the so-called ``QuikScat'' weather satellite, which lets forecasters measure basics such as wind speed. Replacing it would take at least four years even if the estimated $400 million cost were available immediately, he said.
It is currently in its seventh year of operation and was expected to last five, Proenza said, and it is only a matter of time until it fails.
Without the satellite providing key data, Proenza said, both two- and three-day forecasts of a storm's path would be affected. The two-day forecast could be 10 percent worse while the three-day one could be affected up to 16 percent, Proenza said.
That would mean longer stretches of coastline would have to be placed under warnings, and more people than necessary would have to evacuate.
Average track errors last year were about 100 miles on two-day forecasts and 150 miles on three-day predictions. Track errors have been cut in half over the past 15 years. Losing QuikScat could erode some of those gains, Proenza acknowledged, adding he did not know of any plans to replace it.
Proenza, 62, also discussed a series of other concerns, naming New Orleans, the Northeast and the Florida Keys as among the areas most vulnerable to hurricanes. Apart from working with the media and emergency managers to help vulnerable residents prepare, he proposed having students come up with plans at school to discuss with their parents.
He said he believes hundreds of millions of dollars more money is needed to better understand storms.
At the same time, he strongly opposed a proposal to close any of the National Weather Service's 122 offices around the nation or have them operate part time, saying ``weather certainly doesn't take a holiday.''
Proenza took over one of meteorology's most highly visible posts in January. His predecessor, Max Mayfield, had held the top spot for six years.
Like Mayfield, Proenza stressed the importance of preparedness, but he also set out slightly different positions. Global warming was one of them.
Last year, the Caribbean and western Atlantic had the second-highest sea temperatures since 1930, but the season turned out to be quieter than expected, Proenza said.
``So there's got to be other factors working and impacting hurricanes and tropical storms than just sea surface temperatures or global warming,'' he said.
His comments distinguished him from Mayfield, who had said climate change didn't substantially enhance hurricane activity, especially the number of storms.
Both men talked about being in a period of heightened hurricane activity since 1995, as part of a natural fluctuation.
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