"OMG!" TWC has ARIZONA in the CONE!

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azsnowman
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"OMG!" TWC has ARIZONA in the CONE!

#1 Postby azsnowman » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:04 pm

I had look TWICE at the "Tropical Update" on TWC a few minutes ago, they have Otis (wonder if Barney Fife is with him :lol: ) heading into Az by Tues night into Weds. I know......he'll be done with by then maybe some residual moisture! Now NOAA's NWS is downplaying it right now!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 302140 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 240 PM MST FRI SEP 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. BY LATE SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WAS GINNING UP SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL OVERNIGHT MINS. FOCUS IS ON THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN MOISTURE FROM A WELL DECAYED HURRICANE OTIS IS SHOWN TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PREFERS HOW THE GFS MODEL HANDLES THIS SYSTEM AND WE WILL USE IT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
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#2 Postby AZRainman » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:13 pm

Otis is getting drunk in Cabo and will be turning himself in to Sheriff Joe later on this week. :wink:

Strange factiod: Otis's wife was named Rita in the Andy Griffith show...hurricane Rita, hurricane Otis...hmmm.

Image

Look out Tucson, he's riding a burro.
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#3 Postby storm4u » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:15 pm

looks like noone is safe this year!! :roll:
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#4 Postby BayouVenteux » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:21 pm

Image

Say, Arizona got enny them Mulberry Squeezins about?
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#5 Postby arkess7 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:45 pm

Well couldnt yall use some rain?
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#6 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:46 pm

arkess7 wrote:Well couldnt yall use some rain?


Yes. But southern California is already out of the "cone of uncertainty". :cry:
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#7 Postby RattleMan » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:51 pm

I live in Arizona, and we desperately need that rain! I love it when it rains...

My friend from California and I were debating whether it was going to go into Cali or Arizona, or both...now we have a better idea.
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#8 Postby aveosmth » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:54 pm

I'm thinking more towards a Yuma landfall but well see
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#9 Postby AZRainman » Fri Sep 30, 2005 6:09 pm

aveosmth wrote:I'm thinking more towards a Yuma landfall but well see


THE OUTLOOK FOR OTIS DURING THE EXTENDED IS FOR IT TO BE A
DEPRESSION CENTERED NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THIS FORECAST...FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE. IT WOULD BE IMPRESSIVE IF THE
CIRCULATION STILL HAD PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT THAT POINT
LET ALONE IF IT ACTUALLY TRACKED TO THAT LOCATION.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/az/discussion.html
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#10 Postby Aslkahuna » Fri Sep 30, 2005 7:32 pm

Well, I don't know about Flag, but Phoenix has had a history of playing these things down. PHX said about the same things about Raymond in 1989 (3-6 inches of rain and 60 mph gusts in Sierra Vista) and Lester in 1992 (3-8 inches of rain and 78 mph gusts in Sierra Vista) so we down here tend to take these things more seriously. In all likelihood, the system probably will weaken drastically, but whoever gets the core of the moisture remnant will be dumped on.

Steve
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#11 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 30, 2005 7:47 pm

you guys in AZ could use some rain to cool off :D

<RICKY>
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#12 Postby timNms » Sat Oct 01, 2005 2:09 am

Hey, Steve,

Are you planning to evacuate? :wink:
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#13 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:00 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
arkess7 wrote:Well couldnt yall use some rain?


Yes. But southern California is already out of the "cone of uncertainty". :cry:


Well, of course it is. After all, they say it never rains in Southern California.
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#14 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Oct 01, 2005 3:06 am

I've been in typhoons-why would I evac for this? :D

Steve
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#15 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 5:28 am

Loves the question about evacuating lol.. {drums and cymbals} lol
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#16 Postby azsnowman » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:11 am

"Gooooollly!" SHAZAM!

It's a "wait and see" attitude right now with Otis!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

SUNDAY NIGHT TIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTHLAND. DURING THIS TIME FRAME THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS TO WATCH. GFS MODEL HAS MOISTURE FROM THE DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM `OTIS` MOVING RAPIDLY INTO THE NRN PART OF ARIZONA. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A STRONG TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AZ ON MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AS IT IS ALONG THE SRN CWA BORDER. THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE RUNNING THROUGH CENTRAL AZ BUT STABILITY AND LIFT ARE`NT THAT GREAT....AND WILL CONTINUE THE LEAVE THE 20-30 POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONE.
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#17 Postby Skywatch_NC » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:19 am

And here Ophelia was the drunk one this year! :lol:

Eric
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#18 Postby lester » Sat Oct 01, 2005 10:47 am

Aslkahuna wrote:Well, I don't know about Flag, but Phoenix has had a history of playing these things down. PHX said about the same things about Raymond in 1989 (3-6 inches of rain and 60 mph gusts in Sierra Vista) and Lester in 1992 (3-8 inches of rain and 78 mph gusts in Sierra Vista) so we down here tend to take these things more seriously. In all likelihood, the system probably will weaken drastically, but whoever gets the core of the moisture remnant will be dumped on.

Steve


:roll:
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#19 Postby azsnowman » Sat Oct 01, 2005 1:59 pm

Your guess is as good as mine now on the moisture!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

THE FORECAST GETS TRICKY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS PUSHING A WARM AND DRY CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE MID-LEVEL CAP WOULD LEAVE LITTLE HOPE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA (NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER) WHERE MOISTURE WOULD BE THE DEEP ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN. MCCOLLUM &&
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#20 Postby arkess7 » Sat Oct 01, 2005 2:58 pm

Skywatch_NC wrote:And here Ophelia was the drunk one this year! :lol:

Eric



:roflmao:
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