Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[James]

441
WTNT44 KNHC 160843
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GET BETTER ORGANZIED... WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE WORD SLOWLY. DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES
HAVE INCREASED... BUT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS SPLIT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN TWO. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN
WITH A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER
...OFTENTIMES THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF LARGE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE WILL LAG ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY
BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT... WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON
NEARBY NOAA BUOY WIND REPORTS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST
12 HOURS... WITH A MOTION BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES AND NO MORE THAN
3 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS... WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEAK WESTWARD STEERING PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MOVES OVER AND
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF HIGH CENTER THROUGH LOUISIANA AND INTO
MISSOURI. THE GLOBAL MODELS HANDLES THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE
DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET... AND ECMWF MODELS BEING
MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THROUGH DAY 3... WHEREAS THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS DAMPEN IT
OUT AND KEEP A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE GULF. IF ANYTHING... THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO
DAMPEN THESE TYPES OF SHORTWAVES TOO MUCH... SO MY FEELING IS THAT
THE GFS... GFDL... UKMET... AND ECMWF MODELS MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY DAYS 2-3
AND... THEREFORE... THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN MORE THAN
INDICATED BY THOSE MODELS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER-LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY DAY 5 TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CREATE AN EVEN LARGER
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN CUBA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... OR
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE LEFT...OR
WEST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF NOGAPS MODEL.

MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NOTED IN BOTH 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
ACROSS FLORIDA AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT... A VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND WARM SSTS OF MORE THAN 29C SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT... THE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS... AND DECREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER 48
HOURS. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BECOME MAJOR
HURRICANES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL... WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 88 KT BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.0N 79.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 16.9N 79.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 16.9N 80.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 17.0N 80.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 17.3N 81.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 82.6W 70 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 83.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 22.0N 84.0W 95 KT...NEAR WESTERN CUBA

$$

[TampaFl]

Once again, another great discussion by Stacey Stewart!

Robert

[Ixolib]

Once again, another great discussion by Stacey Stewart!

Robert

Man, ain't THAT the truth!!

[senorpepr]

705
WTNT34 KNHC 161138
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
GENERAL WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK SO SOME
ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...DEPRESSION STALLED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE A GENERALLY WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN EXTREMELY WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

THERE HAVE BEEN NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
DEPRESSION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER WITH HINTS OF A LITTLE MORE BANDING. THE LATEST
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE UNCHANGED...AT
T2.5/35 KT...BUT AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SUCH A
BROAD WIND FIELD THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL LAGGING THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING
THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ASSESS THE STRENGTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. THE RAPID INSTENSIFICATION COMPONENT OF THE SHIPS MODEL
IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO FORM FIRST. THE
GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN
THREE DAYS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FACTORS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE TO
ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS
MODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE GFDL LATER ON.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND PERHAPS MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION. THIS TOO...WILL BE BETTER ASSESSED WHEN THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF THE
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION BUT WILL
SOON BE MOVING BY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WESTWARD DRIFT TO RESUME
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH AS THE RIDGE ERODES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.1N 79.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 17.2N 80.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 17.3N 80.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 17.7N 81.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 20.5N 84.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT

[Brent]

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT TO ARRIVE SHORTLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE A GENERALLY WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN EXTREMELY WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Extremeweatherguy]

the models seemed to have been shifting further west this morning.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html

could this end up being another central Gulf concern?

[chadtm80]

the models seemed to have been shifting further west this morning.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html

could this end up being another central Gulf concern?

Wunderground Model Maps = BOOOOO
Skeetobiteweather Model Maps = WOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com

[gtalum]

Chad you have a way with words.

[Weatherfreak000]

Models have been shifting more and more West every advisory.



Looks like an interesting development unfolding.

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 162036
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH
... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONITNUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO...IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z SUN OCT 16 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 79.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 79.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 79.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 80.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 81.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 81.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 79.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. INDEED...THEY HAVE YET
TO FIND ANY FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HIGHER THAN 31 KT...WHICH ONLY
SUPPORTS 25 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY
HOWEVER...I WILL ASSUME THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXIST SOMEWHERE
THE AIRCRAFT HASN'T YET SAMPLED. WHILE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS DOMINATED BY OUTER BANDS WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE ACTIVITY
NEAR THE CORE. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTER ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE
INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY...HOWEVER. THE
GFDL IS STILL CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL CALLING FOR MORE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE...IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC. EARLIER THE DEPRESSION
WAS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD..BUT NOW THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BYPASSING THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF RELATIVELY
UNMOVED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THESE MODELS SHOW LESS EROSION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND HAVE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME
FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE GFDL...WITH THE UKMET...GFS...AND NOGAPS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 17.7N 79.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.8N 79.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 17.9N 80.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 18.1N 81.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 18.4N 81.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 21.0N 85.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 86.0W 95 KT

[Brent]

[Ivanhater]

brent we need to watch this one

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't like the westward trend either. Hopefully she won't be as intense as some are saying and whomever has to deal with Miss Wilma won't be dealing with a major. I sure hope thats the case.

[jes]

I hate she's moving West --- I see her headed straight for N.O. again and then turning East (as I guess she has to do eventually ) and then hit Mobile or the upper Fla panhandle. Of course, I know NOTHING about weather, so this is just my fear.
The only good thing for all of us ---- at least it's cool now and the aftermath won't be devastatingly hot.

[Bgator]

I think this west in the models is a temporary thing, i still think Tampa has the best chance and NoLA is nto Likely now, but not out of possibility...Models this year have not been on track until its 4-5 day running! We'll have to wait and see!