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mtm4319
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#1281 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:05 am

curtadams wrote:Where are the eyewall dropsondes? Aren't they trying to verify these measurements


974
UZNT13 KNHC 240634
XXAA 74067 99246 70824 08142 99971 ///// ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85148 20005 19623 70805 09000 21626 88999 77999
31313 09608 80609
51515 10191
61616 AF305 2424A WILMA OB 36
62626 EYEWALL 120 LST WND 928 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20622 872744 =
XXBB 74068 99246 70824 08142 00971 ///// 11872 208// 22871 20805
33850 20005 44735 13611 55708 12200 66697 07800
21212 00971 ///// 11872 19118 22865 19126 33857 19630 44850 19623
55697 21626
31313 09608 80609
51515 10191
61616 AF305 2424A WILMA OB 36
62626 EYEWALL 120 LST WND 928 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20622 872744 =


From 0634Z.

I don't know how to read this.
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#1282 Postby EyELeSs1 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:09 am

974
UZNT13 KNHC 240634
XXAA 74067 99246 70824 08142 99971 ///// ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85148 20005 19623 70805 09000 21626 88999 77999
31313 09608 80609
51515 10191
61616 AF305 2424A WILMA OB 36
62626 EYEWALL 120 LST WND 928 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20622 872744 =
XXBB 74068 99246 70824 08142 00971 ///// 11872 208// 22871 20805
33850 20005 44735 13611 55708 12200 66697 07800
21212 00971 ///// 11872 19118 22865 19126 33857 19630 44850 19623
55697 21626
31313 09608 80609
51515 10191
61616 AF305 2424A WILMA OB 36
62626 EYEWALL 120 LST WND 928 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20622 872744 =


eyewall.... without srf winds
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#1283 Postby thunderchief » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:10 am

eyewall drops often fail.
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#1284 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:11 am

203
SXXX50 KNHC 240704
AF305 2424A WILMA HDOB 61 KNHC
0653. 2457N 08230W 03047 5306 213 044 140 140 045 02784 0000000000
0654 2458N 08232W 03047 5309 215 042 140 140 043 02781 0000000000
0654. 2458N 08234W 03048 5311 214 037 138 138 040 02780 0000000000
0655 2459N 08235W 03045 5314 216 031 140 140 033 02775 0000000000
0655. 2500N 08237W 03048 5315 216 027 140 140 028 02776 0000000000
0656 2501N 08238W 03046 5317 213 026 136 136 026 02772 0000000000
0656. 2502N 08240W 03048 5318 206 025 138 138 026 02773 0000000000
0657 2503N 08242W 03045 5318 207 020 134 134 022 02770 0000000000
0657. 2504N 08243W 03048 5317 217 017 134 134 018 02774 0000000000
0658 2505N 08245W 03048 5318 218 015 138 138 016 02773 0000000000
0658. 2506N 08247W 03046 5318 213 011 144 142 012 02771 0000000000
0659 2507N 08248W 03047 5316 218 007 146 140 009 02774 0000000000
0659. 2508N 08250W 03046 5315 244 004 144 144 005 02774 0000000000
0700 2509N 08251W 03048 5312 325 004 152 132 005 02779 0000000000
0700. 2510N 08253W 03048 5309 354 003 160 128 003 02782 0000000000
0701 2511N 08254W 03045 5302 036 003 166 126 005 02786 0000000000
0701. 2513N 08253W 03051 5304 118 005 168 116 005 02790 0000000000
0702 2514N 08252W 03045 5305 125 010 170 112 012 02783 0000000000
0702. 2516N 08251W 03044 5306 123 013 172 108 014 02781 0000000000
0703 2517N 08249W 03050 5306 127 015 174 104 017 02787 0000000000
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#1285 Postby curtadams » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:12 am

Dang. Isn't that 123 knots at 850 mb?
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#1286 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:14 am

looks to be a VDM soon...
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#1287 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:16 am

421
URNT12 KNHC 240711
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/06:59:30Z
B. 25 deg 08 min N
082 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2695 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 222 deg 135 kt
G. 124 deg 046 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 8 C/ 3056 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C65
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 39
MAX FL WIND 135 KT SE QUAD 06:45:40 Z
SOME LIGHTNING VISIBLE IN NW EYEWALL

=======

Moved 6 minutes north and 22 minutes east... :?:
Last edited by mtm4319 on Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1288 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:17 am

Looks like that 135 knots was good...With a 2 millibar drop...
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#1289 Postby jpigott » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:18 am

okay, Pasch now needs to get off his $@# and issue an intermediate advisory, the 135kts are confirmed and there is lightening in the eyewall and we all know what that means
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#1290 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:21 am

this is a cat 4....and she is def...getting stronger
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#1291 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:21 am

Wow, mixed signals, eye temp difference has increased and the eye has dried out, along with lightning in the NW Eyewall and flight winds nearing Cat 5, but pressure hasn't really dropped much and radar presentation is not very good (though that could be just that the convection is far away from the radar).
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#1292 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:21 am

To his defense, 154mb is very high for a Cat 4 of Wilma's size. It certainly is partly caused by her fast motion, being 20mph now. So, for a slower moving cane, she'd prob be strong cat 3 (subtracting 10-15mph).
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#1293 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:23 am

629
SXXX50 KNHC 240714
AF305 2424A WILMA HDOB 62 KNHC
0703. 2519N 08248W 03047 5303 120 017 174 104 019 02787 0000000000
0704 2520N 08247W 03048 5300 121 024 160 114 026 02791 0000000000
0704. 2521N 08246W 03045 5297 123 027 156 118 028 02792 0000000000
0705 2523N 08245W 03045 5294 122 027 154 126 028 02794 0000000000
0705. 2524N 08244W 03049 5289 117 027 152 146 027 02803 0000000000
0706 2525N 08243W 03043 5285 118 031 140 140 034 02801 0000000100
0706. 2527N 08242W 03052 5281 118 033 128 128 034 02814 0000000100
0707 2528N 08240W 03039 5278 124 036 146 146 044 02804 0000000000
0707. 2529N 08239W 03058 5272 130 052 122 122 058 02829 0000000000
0708 2531N 08238W 03045 5268 133 060 114 114 067 02820 0000000100
0708. 2532N 08237W 03049 5262 135 068 112 112 075 02830 0000000100
0709 2534N 08236W 03049 5254 132 080 102 102 082 02838 0000000100
0709. 2535N 08235W 03047 5244 128 088 098 098 089 02846 0000000100
0710 2536N 08234W 03042 5233 122 082 092 092 083 02853 0000000100
0710. 2537N 08233W 03043 5221 115 081 088 088 083 02866 0000000100
0711 2538N 08232W 03048 5214 117 080 086 086 081 02877 0000000100
0711. 2540N 08231W 03052 5204 120 081 086 086 081 02891 0000000100
0712 2541N 08230W 03048 5197 125 081 086 086 082 02894 0000000100
0712. 2542N 08229W 03044 5190 128 077 088 088 077 02897 0000000100
0713 2543N 08228W 03049 5182 130 079 090 090 082 02910 0000000000
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#1294 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:23 am

i understand 952mb is a little bit high for cat 4...but, damn...we have the winds to support it....
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#1295 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:23 am

What doe's pressure have to do with upgrading a cyclone....The answer is not one darn thing.
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#1296 Postby EyELeSs1 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:24 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:What doe's pressure have to do with upgrading a cyclone....The answer is not one darn thing.


take it easy....relax
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#1297 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:25 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:What doe's pressure have to do with upgrading a cyclone....The answer is not one darn thing.


No, but you have to do a reality check. My hunch is that they are waiting for a little bit more data before making a pretty significant upgrade.
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Derek Ortt

#1298 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:26 am

the upgrade can come at 4 a.m.

After many overstatements of the winds, possibly including Katrina, they are probably making sure this is more intense. I'd have liked to have seen 130 m.p.h.
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#1299 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:28 am

The next flight is in the Gulf.

:darrow:

284
SXXX50 KNHC 240715
AF302 2524A WILMA HDOB 11 KNHC
0704 2805N 08320W 06401 0263 175 019 101 103 019 06691 0000000000
0704. 2803N 08319W 06401 0262 173 017 101 107 017 06690 0000000000
0705 2800N 08319W 06400 0261 176 015 099 103 016 06689 0000000000
0705. 2758N 08318W 06400 0260 177 015 097 103 016 06687 0000000000
0706 2755N 08318W 06397 0258 176 016 093 101 017 06685 0000000000
0706. 2753N 08317W 06401 0259 170 014 095 099 015 06687 0000000000
0707 2750N 08316W 06401 0259 148 014 095 097 016 06687 0000000000
0707. 2748N 08316W 06400 0262 141 023 095 095 026 06690 0000000000
0708 2745N 08315W 06401 0257 134 023 095 095 024 06686 0000000000
0708. 2743N 08315W 06400 0257 144 019 095 095 020 06684 0000000000
0709 2740N 08314W 06401 0258 147 028 095 095 028 06686 0000000000
0709. 2738N 08314W 06399 0253 138 026 093 093 029 06679 0000000000
0710 2736N 08313W 06402 0255 121 028 093 093 028 06684 0000000000
0710. 2733N 08313W 06400 0253 122 025 091 091 026 06680 0000000000
0711 2731N 08312W 06337 0262 131 022 089 089 024 06620 0000000000
0711. 2728N 08312W 05980 0251 126 023 073 073 024 06244 0000000000
0712 2725N 08311W 05510 0213 115 030 053 053 034 05734 0000000000
0712. 2723N 08311W 05171 0182 103 033 041 041 034 05363 0000000100
0713 2720N 08310W 04854 0153 089 031 029 029 032 05017 0000000100
0713. 2718N 08310W 04619 0130 099 035 017 017 039 04758 0000000100
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bigmoney755

#1300 Postby bigmoney755 » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:28 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the upgrade can come at 4 a.m.

After many overstatements of the winds, possibly including Katrina, they are probably making sure this is more intense. I'd have liked to have seen 130 m.p.h.

derek you are a pro...the data does not lie. Fact is fact. 135kts at 700mb = 140mph. Not 120mph...correct?
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