Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

THead · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:29 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:

DLI2k5 wrote:

I wonder if it's a case of the NHC saving face and trying to keep what they had originally forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 or in this case a Cat 3.

Sure would not suprize me at all :grrr:

Thought crossed my mind too. Yesterday at 5am disco they had her max at 90kt.

curtadams · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:29 am

A good thing about these winds is that storm motion contributes a lot. In the back eyewall winds will be only Cat 1-2. The peak wind will go into the Everglades.

wxmann_91 · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:29 am

DLI2k5 wrote:

I wonder if it's a case of the NHC saving face and trying to keep what they had originally forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 or in this case a Cat 3.

Actually they are being conservative, there are conflicting signals regarding Wilma's strength, as explained by WxGuy1.

DLI2k5 · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:30 am

SamSagnella wrote:

DLI2k5 wrote:

I wonder if it's a case of the NHC saving face and trying to keep what they had originally forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 or in this case a Cat 3.

The NHC are the first to acknowledge a lack of skill in intensity forecasting -- the last thing they would do is intentionally underreport the advisory intensity of a landfalling major hurricane...preposterous.

They may ackowledge lack of skill in intensity of forecasting, but at the same time they shouldn't be reluctant to the fact that based on what recon data has been showing recently could very well move this hurricane up to a possible Cat4 status! They have made no mention of this at all, and i find that to be preposterous when dealing with so many peoples lives out there!

bahamaswx · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:30 am

THead wrote:

WxGuy1 wrote:

The eye seems to be filling and becoming less circular in the past 30 minutes.

There may be some dry low-level being ingested into the storm now, particularly on the west side. The IR images would show cold clouds tops still in the early stages of this, as may be the case now.

It has been cycling like that all day through this what is turning out to be steady intensification.

Storms entraining dry air don't translate the 10,000ft level winds to the surface very efficiently, though even an 80% reduction supports 125mph, which is what I would have gone with for her intensity...

deltadog03 · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:32 am

how do you figure its entraining dry air...???

THead · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:33 am

wxmann_91 wrote:

DLI2k5 wrote:

I wonder if it's a case of the NHC saving face and trying to keep what they had originally forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 or in this case a Cat 3.

Actually they are being conservative, there are conflicting signals regarding Wilma's strength, as explained by WxGuy1.

Just another case of nobody on earth having a good grasp on intensity forecast, even in the very short term.

Tertius · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:33 am

bahamaswx wrote:

THead wrote:

WxGuy1 wrote:

The eye seems to be filling and becoming less circular in the past 30 minutes.

There may be some dry low-level being ingested into the storm now, particularly on the west side. The IR images would show cold clouds tops still in the early stages of this, as may be the case now.

It has been cycling like that all day through this what is turning out to be steady intensification.

Storms entraining dry air don't translate the 10,000ft level winds to the surface very efficiently, though even an 80% reduction supports 125mph, which is what I would have gone with for her intensity...

Perhaps not, but I don't see any deep entraining of dry air happening here. I'm just an amateur though, maybe I'm missing it?

WxGuy1 · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:33 am

DLI2k5 wrote:

They have made no mention of this at all, and i find that to be preposterous when dealing with so many peoples lives out there!

I certainly don't think it's any sort of 'conspiracy'. In reality, if they upgrade to Cat 4, what are the folks in the storm's path going to do now? It's not like you're going to pack up the car and head north now.

mikemiller18 · **Joined:** Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:07 am **Posts:** 31

WxGuy1 wrote:

DLI2k5 wrote:

They have made no mention of this at all, and i find that to be preposterous when dealing with so many peoples lives out there!

I certainly don't think it's any sort of 'conspiracy'. In reality, if they upgrade to Cat 4, what are the folks in the storm's path going to do now? It's not like you're going to pack up the car and head north now.

doesn't give a reason to be conservative on a proven fact.

more than 3 readings of cat 4 winds is good enough.

SamSagnella · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:35 am

curtadams wrote:

Is that the outward bulge of green from the eye to the ESE?

No, check out the SErn eyewall in images 3 thru 8 -- you can clearly see a snake-like 'kink' that whips around at an astounding velocity over the course of like 1/2 hour. I think this is likely related to those anomolously high FL winds reported by the last recon pass, which I do not believe were an actual reflection of storm-wide windspeeds.

Image #1:

Image #2:

Image #3:

Image #4:

Image #5:

Image #6:

Image #7:

Image #8:

EDITED to reduce image size.

THead · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:38 am

bahamaswx wrote:

THead wrote:

WxGuy1 wrote:

The eye seems to be filling and becoming less circular in the past 30 minutes.

There may be some dry low-level being ingested into the storm now, particularly on the west side. The IR images would show cold clouds tops still in the early stages of this, as may be the case now.

It has been cycling like that all day through this what is turning out to be steady intensification.

Storms entraining dry air don't translate the 10,000ft level winds to the surface very efficiently, though even an 80% reduction supports 125mph, which is what I would have gone with for her intensity...

Thats interesting because its been translating very well to the surface per Max Mayfield. Show me where this is entraining any more dry air than say 12 hours ago. I'm tellin ya, some people (not picking on just you) are just in denial over Wilma's intensification. Just let it go and accept it. And realize it too has alot to do with her forward motion, which some have tried to explain for the last day but were blasted to kingdom come.

WxGuy1 · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:38 am

mikemiller18 wrote:

doesn't give a reason to be conservative on a proven fact.

more than 3 readings of cat 4 winds is good enough.

I agree that I should be more like 125. However, how is a flight-level wind observation proved fact of surface winds?! You can use the rule-of-thumb 10% reduction, but it's just that -- a rule of thumb!

bahamaswx · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:39 am

Tertius wrote:

Perhaps not, but I don't see any deep entraining of dry air happening here. I'm just an amateur though, maybe I'm missing it?

No significant amounts, just trying to come up with reasons here.

curtadams · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:42 am

Sam, color me impressed. With both your eye and how you back up your observation. I can't begin to interpret that other than to say there's something going on. Maybe the recon flight can see something on doppler like a midlevel mesovortex and so they know it isn't affecting the ground.

EyELeSs1 · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:43 am

curtadams wrote:

Sam, color me impressed. With both your eye and how you back up your observation. I can't begin to interpret that other than to say there's something going on. Maybe the recon flight can see something on doppler like a midlevel mesovortex and so they know it isn't affecting the ground.

Those still images are quite interesting

Matt-hurricanewatcher · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:46 am

What ever it is its very large it takes 4 obs across...I don't know how far apart are. But I'm thinking thats a large area.

THead · **Posted:** Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:46 am

Sam, not being smart but just asking, how can something within the storm whip around at "astonishing velocity" and not be considered reflective of the storm's winds?

thermos · **Joined:** Fri Sep 23, 2005 9:58 am **Posts:** 124

Storm still intensifying. "Reds" starting to wrap around the storm on this satellite:

FunkMasterB · **Joined:** Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:24 am **Posts:** 96

Looks like Key West is getting hammered right now.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

Who is online