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Canelaw99
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:53 am 
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Sure seems like they are from the footage I'm watching on our local CBS station. The power has been out there since about midnight.
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jpigott
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:53 am 
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what will the NHC do at 4:00? My bet is 125mph although i think 130-135 is warranted given that last vortex and multiple 130kt plus readings
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bahamaswx
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:54 am 
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thermos wrote:
Storm still intensifying. "Reds" starting to wrap around the storm on this satellite:


Yep... reds showing up east of the eye now on that 0645z IR image!
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mtm4319
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:02 am 
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ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

AT 4 AM EDT...0800Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 80 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

SOMBRERO KEY LIGHTHOUSE...OFF MARATHON...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 79 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 89 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 159 FEET.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
NNNN
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mtm4319
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:03 am 
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jpigott wrote:
what will the NHC do at 4:00? My bet is 125mph although i think 130-135 is warranted given that last vortex and multiple 130kt plus readings


They didn't upgrade, only a position estimate.
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THead
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:03 am 
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They left it 120mph for 4am
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SamSagnella
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:05 am 
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THead wrote:
Sam, not being smart but just asking, how can something within the storm whip around at "astounding velocity" and not be considered reflective of the storm's winds?


I said that it probably wasn't reflictive of storm-wide windspeeds meaning that the recon crew just happened to be in the right place at the right time to experience much higher than average winds. JMHO of course.
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Derek Ortt
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:05 am 
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key west may MISS the eye wall by about 5 miles
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:06 am 
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If this next plane finds 135 knots...In the fact that the reds/blacks are wraping around the eye. Then a upgrade will be needed...For the life of me I don't understand.
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mtm4319
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:06 am 
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Derek Ortt wrote:
key west may MISS the eye wall by about 5 miles


Didn't we expect the city to miss it by more than that? The center is 75 miles northwest of Key West right now.
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SamSagnella
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:10 am 
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While the precise center will miss the city by considerably more than 5 miles, the eyewall will not.
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Typhoon
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:10 am 
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Why does the NHC refuse to increase the intensity further? If one more recon pass confirms that Wilma is much stronger, they will have to. I suppose they're convinced that the unique feature that had this incredible wind speed is temporary and is not indicative of anything else that is happening, and/or that they don't think the winds are mixing down to the surface as they normally do. I still somewhat question their decision, but who am I to criticize the NHC? Just because a small area has wind speeds that others don't is no reason to keep from raising the intensity. They are called maximum sustained winds for a reason.
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Canelaw99
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:10 am 
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That's what I was thinking. What kind of impact will that have on the rest of us here in the county??? (I know we're expecting strong winds, etc. just wondering about whether the eyewall be closer here.....)
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jpigott
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:10 am 
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
If this next plane finds 135 knots...In the fact that the reds/blacks are wraping around the eye. Then a upgrade will be needed...For the life of me I don't understand.


i don't know if the next plane will make it down there in time
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Typhoon
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:12 am 
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jpigott wrote:
i don't know if the next plane will make it down there in time


It should be there right now, but no one is posting recon reports.
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mtm4319
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:13 am 
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Typhoon wrote:
jpigott wrote:
i don't know if the next plane will make it down there in time


It should be there right now, but no one is posting recon reports.


I'm not getting any reports. http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm is my source, but the last report was from 3:23 AM EDT of the previous plane leaving.
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THead
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:26 am 
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Good luck, God bless everyone. Here she comes.
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Canelaw99
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:29 am 
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Aren't you just the bearer of happy tidings THead LOL
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superfly
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:35 am 
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Eye has really tightened on radar. Still elongates but looks to be about 30 miles across now east to west.
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THead
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2005 4:37 am 
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Image
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