El Nino wrote:Really a small one ... Maybe the track through these lakes can affect some weakening. What's the chanbce to get this depression into Pacific Ocean ?
A chance, but it's quite small. The circulation isn't going to survive the mountains.
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wxmann_91 wrote:WxGuy1 wrote:It'll prob be borderline Cat 2/3 IMO. The overall area of cold cloud tops is shrinking, and it'll be on shore in not too long. In fact, Beta looks considerably worse on satellite now than she did a couple hours ago. Beta appears to be moving WSW, south of the NHC forecast track. Certainly a very serious rainfall threat, since the wind threat will be localized owing to the very small wind field (hurricane-force winds only extend out 15 miles from the eye). This is why we don't take the LBAR or NHCA98E "models" seriously most of the time. The majority of the dynamical models and the NHC hit this forecast quite well.
You kiddin' me? Beta is contracting and strengthening, eye is clearing out. This certainly won't be Wilma 2, but still, a very formidable and impressive hurricane to say the least.
WxGuy1 wrote:wxmann_91 wrote:WxGuy1 wrote:It'll prob be borderline Cat 2/3 IMO. The overall area of cold cloud tops is shrinking, and it'll be on shore in not too long. In fact, Beta looks considerably worse on satellite now than she did a couple hours ago. Beta appears to be moving WSW, south of the NHC forecast track. Certainly a very serious rainfall threat, since the wind threat will be localized owing to the very small wind field (hurricane-force winds only extend out 15 miles from the eye). This is why we don't take the LBAR or NHCA98E "models" seriously most of the time. The majority of the dynamical models and the NHC hit this forecast quite well.
You kiddin' me? Beta is contracting and strengthening, eye is clearing out. This certainly won't be Wilma 2, but still, a very formidable and impressive hurricane to say the least.
No, I wasn't kidding you. Beta briefly got to 100kts, then weakened back down to 90kts. Sounds like borderline Cat 2/3 to me... The NHC discussion mentioned similar things I did... I don't imagine many folks thought the winds were going to be the big deal out of Beta, given her very small wind field.
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