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#21 Postby P.K. » Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:44 pm

WTNT42 KNHC 192031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

VISIBLE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GAMMA IS 30 N MI OR
MORE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH APPEARS RAGGED AND DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004
MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT AT 1500 FT 25-30 N MI NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 360/2 BASED ON 24 HR OF
MOTION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
SHORT-TERM EASTWARD DRIFT. GAMMA IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF WEAK
STEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND BETWEEN SEGMENTS OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGES TO BREAK DOWN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
TURN GAMMA MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO
BRING A STRONGER GAMMA TO THE NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS...ALTHOUGH
IT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ON ITS LATEST RUN. THE GFS AND UKMET CALL
FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. DUE
TO THE MODEL TRENDS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...CALLING FOR GAMMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 24-36 HR
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION
TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA. THIS TRACK IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...AND CALLS FOR LESS ACCELERATION AFTER 36 HR. THIS IS STILL
A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK
COULD OCCUR TONIGHT BASED ON DATA FROM THE FLIGHT OF THE NOAA G4
JET CURRENTLY UNDERWAY.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS 20-30 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER GAMMA. EVEN WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FORECAST TRACK THAN 6 HR AGO...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE...WHICH WILL ALLOW
LITTLE IF ANY STRENGTHENING. ALSO...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT
TRACK...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP WELL INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND CATCH GAMMA.
BASED ON THESE TWO PREMISES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD THE
INTENSITY AT 40 KT UNTIL 72 HR...WHEN GAMMA SHOULD BE MERGING WITH
THE FRONT. THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD ABSORB GAMMA BY 96 HR. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN GAMMA EVEN
BEFORE THE FRONT CATCHES IT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 16.3N 85.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.8N 85.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.8N 85.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 18.9N 84.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 20.7N 83.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 76.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

----------------------------------------

WTNT32 KNHC 192032
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005

...DISORGANIZED GAMMA DRIFTING ERRATICALLY OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF
HONDURAS.

AT 3 PM CST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE. ALSO AT 3 PM
CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 3 PM CST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT
215 MILES... 345 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS.

GAMMA IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...
75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NOW APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE MAY
OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE
AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

REPEATING THE 3 PM CST POSITION...16.3 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 9 PM CST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

--------------------------------------------------

WTNT22 KNHC 192031
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
2100Z SAT NOV 19 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF
HONDURAS.

AT 3 PM CST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE. ALSO AT 3 PM
CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 85.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 85.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 85.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 84.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.7N 83.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 76.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 85.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2005 8:19 pm

WTNT32 KNHC 192355
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005

...GAMMA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... STILL CENTERED NOT FAR OFF THE
COAST OF HONDURAS AND MOVING SLOWLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF
HONDURAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 6 PM CST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR ABOUT
245 MILES... 395 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 65
MILES... 95 KM... NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS.

GAMMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 MPH... 10
KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GAMMA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE
AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

REPEATING THE 6 PM CST POSITION...16.4 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
9 PM CST.

FORECASTER KNABB

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#23 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
0300Z SUN NOV 20 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF
HONDURAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 84.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 83.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 80.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.0N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 84.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#24 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED GAMMA MOVING SLOWLY WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF
HONDURAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 PM CST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES... 405 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 90
MILES... 145 KM...NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS.

GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT THE MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM
TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GAMMA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CUBA AND
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 9 PM CST POSITION...16.6 N... 84.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3
AM CST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2005 10:27 pm

WTNT42 KNHC 200300
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

INTERMITTENT AND SMALL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE
CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND PROHIBIT IT FROM PERSISTING.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME MOSTLY OBSCURED IN INFRARED
IMAGERY... BUT ITS ESTIMATED LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE DOWNSHEAR
CONVECTION IS CONSISTENT WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED POSITION BASED ON THE
EARLIER AIRCRAFT POSITIONS. THE MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAS BEEN NORTHEASTWARD OR ABOUT 050/5... BUT THIS MOTION MIGHT
NOT YET BE DEFINITIVE. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE GAMMA IS WEST OF A
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DRAGGED
ALONG BY THE CONVECTION SHEARED FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO FORECAST THE ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AS THIS SYSTEM THEN
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2-3 DAYS... WITH GAMMA ADVANCING AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFS... GFDL... AND
NOGAPS... FORECAST GAMMA TO MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES IN THE CARIBBEAN... AND THEN CALL FOR A MUCH WEAKER OR
POSSIBLY DISSIPATING GAMMA TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.
ONE PROBLEM WITH THESE MODELS IS THAT THEY DO NOT INITIALIZE THE
POSITION OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF GAMMA VERY WELL... SO THEIR
EVENTUAL THEIR TRACKS TO THE EAST COULD BE TOO SLOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS EAST OF MOST OF THE MODELS DURING THE FIRST 36
HOURS... BUT THEREAFTER IT GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL TRENDS IN
ANTICIPATING A WEAKENING GAMMA TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CUBA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT PROBABLY WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT.

NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF GAMMA IS FORECAST... SINCE THE WIND
SHEAR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROCEEDS TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
FORECASTS STEADY WEAKENING... ONLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS. THE GFDL FORECAST OF
INTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 60 KT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS
DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE ESTABLISHED TRACK RECORD OF THAT MODEL
OVER-INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT QUITE SHOW THE RATE OF WEAKENING
THAT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES... BUT IT IS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GAMMA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST AND PERHAPS DISSIPATE BEFORE IT EVER BECOMES ENTANGLED
WITH THE COLD FRONT.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 16.6N 84.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 17.3N 84.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.5N 83.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 20.7N 80.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 73.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
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#26 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:59 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED GAMMA MEANDERING NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF
HONDURAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES... 110 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT
225 MILES... 360 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.

GAMMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.
A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT THE MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM
TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GAMMA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CUBA AND
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...16.7 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 AM EST.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#27 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 20, 2005 3:45 am

WTNT42 KNHC 200840
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

EARLIER DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
HIGHEST 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 37 KT IN A FEW SPOTS JUST NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM
STATUS. AT BEST...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS SUPPORT BORDERLINE
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
SINCE WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE FLIGHT LEGS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT... GAMMA IS BEING KEPT A TROPICAL STORM BUT
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT... WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/02...BASED ON A 12-HOUR MOTION. THE LAST
SEVERAL RECON POSITONS INDICATE GAMMA HAS ONLY DRIFTED SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z ALONG WITH DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE
NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT SHOW A WEAKNESS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL STILL EXISTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH... BUT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS REMAINED INTACT. MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN A
SHEARING PATTERN ACROSS GAMMA. THE RESULT IS THAT THE CYCLONE NOW
APPEARS TO BE VERTICALLY LESS DEEP THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... AND
THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AROUND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS
ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE VARIOUS NHC TRACK MODELS MOVE A
WEAKENING GAMMA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD... WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS FORECASTING
DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION BY 96 HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH EITHER DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION OCCURRING BY 72-96
HOURS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 16.7N 85.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 17.1N 85.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 85.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 17.9N 84.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 82.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 78.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

---------------------------------

WTNT32 KNHC 200818
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

...DISORGANIZED GAMMA WEAKENING AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF
HONDURAS. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES... 120 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 220
MILES... 350 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.

GAMMA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS... AND GAMMA COULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... SOME GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GAMMA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CUBA AND
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...16.7 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST.

FORECASTER STEWART

----------------------------------

WTNT22 KNHC 200818
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
0900Z SUN NOV 20 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF
HONDURAS. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 85.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 85.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.1N 85.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.9N 84.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 82.2W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.5N 78.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 85.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#28 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 7:00 am

Looks like Gamma is dissipating...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

...DISORGANIZED GAMMA WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
MEANDERS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 215
MILES...345 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.

GAMMA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... SOME
ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CUBA AND
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 7 AM EST POSITION...16.7 N... 85.1 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 AM EST.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#29 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 20, 2005 8:29 am

I took out the thread from sticky as it was downgraded and it is dissipating slowly but surely.The advisories will continue to be posted here until the last one is written.
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#30 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:56 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

...GAMMA CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF ROATAN ISLAND...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE BAY ISLANDS OF
HONDURAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES... 125 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 195
MILES... 315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...
6 KM/HR. A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
GAMMA COULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE
OFFSHORE BAY ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...
AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...16.9 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM EST.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#31 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:56 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WANED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE
CLOSEST DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ANOTHER WEAK
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST... BUT IT IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS AT THIS
TIME OF TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED ACCORDINGLY... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT
...BASED MAINLY ON THE TIGHT SWIRL NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/03... ALTHOUGH GAMMA APPEARS TO BE MAKING
A SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 12Z INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL STEERING FLOW PATTERN... EXCEPT THAT
THE BREAK IN THE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS FILLED IN. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP GAMMA TRAPPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CAPTURES THE CYCLONE BY
72 HOURS. THE NOGAPS...GFDN... AND COAMPS MODELS MAINTAIN A DEEPER
AND STRONGER CIRCULATION THAN DO THE REST OF THE NHC MODELS...WHICH
SEEMS UNREASONABLE BASED ON THE 12Z BELIZE SOUNDING. IN CONTRAST...
THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WEAKEN GAMMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND DRIFT IT AROUND WITHIN 90 NMI OF ITS CURRENT LOCATION.
THE REMAINING MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND DRIFT IT SLOWLY
EAST OR SOUTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LEANS CLOSELY TOWARD THE GFS MODELS... WITH
DISSIPATION POSSIBLY OCCURRING WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR... AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
AS NOTED IN 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM BELIZE. THE SHIPS MODEL
DISSIPATES GAMMA BY 24 HOURS. THIS RAPID DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND
WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY POOR APPEARANCE
OF GAMMA IN THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 16.9N 85.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 17.1N 85.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 84.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 22/0000Z 17.7N 83.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1200Z 17.7N 81.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
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#32 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:20 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

...GAMMA REMAINS WEAK...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES... 135 KM... NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH
... 4 KM/HR. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...17.0 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM EST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#33 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:21 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
2100Z SUN NOV 20 2005


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 85.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 85.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.4N 85.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 85.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.6N 83.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#34 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:21 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

GAMMA HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT NO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING HAS
SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT...BUT COULD
BE LESS THAN THAT BY NOW. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CIRCULATION AND PREVENT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. GAMMA IS LIKELY TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING...OR ALMOST SURELY BY
TOMORROW.

GAMMA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS THE CYCLONE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN 360/2. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AFTER WHICH A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD TAKE
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION GENERALLY EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN
DEFERENCE TO THE SHALLOW BAM AND GFS MODELS. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION WILL EITHER BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT OR DISSIPATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 17.0N 85.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 17.4N 85.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 85.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 22/0600Z 17.6N 83.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:39 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

...GAMMA DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH OF HONDURAS...

AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES... 155 KM...NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH... 4
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GAMMA IS DISSIPATING INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...17.2 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GAMMA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH



664
WTNT42 KNHC 210235
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

GAMMA CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT
ALSO CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THUS THE SYSTEM
NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE
BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE CIRCULATION AND DISCOURAGE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...IN 24 HOURS OR SO...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SWEEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
REMNANT LOW OF GAMMA WILL EITHER BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS FRONT OR
DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

GAMMA HAS BEEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE. AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
LOW-LEVEL STEERING IS FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD TURN GAMMA'S REMNANTS
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
GAMMA UNLESS REGENERATION...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY...OCCURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF GAMMA CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND IN OFFSHORE
WATERS FORECASTS UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND UNDER WMO HEADER
FZNT23 KNHC.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.2N 85.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 21/1200Z 17.4N 85.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 84.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 22/1200Z 17.5N 82.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED



RIP Gamma.
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MiamiensisWx

#36 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:42 pm

Adios, finally!
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HURAKAN
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:45 pm

:Door:

HASTA LA VISTA, BABY!!!
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MiamiensisWx

#38 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:53 pm

Sooner or later, things just have to end.

Say bye-bye to 2005... hopefully.

:blowup: :blowup: :blowup:

:uarrow: GAMMA :uarrow:

NOTE - I am NOT saying 2005 is quite over. I am just saying we all WISH it will be over... hopefully.
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mike815
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#39 Postby mike815 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:11 pm

Gamma fought to the bitter end hopefully it is but one more looks like it will form.
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