Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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CrazyC83
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#561 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:12 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:FYI, a track south of Darwin is the best case scenario since southern hemisphere TC's spin clockwise, so the strongest side is the left.


I forgot about that, so you have a double-whammy for the southern eyewall AND more time over water. The worst-case track is about 10 miles north of Darwin.
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#562 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:14 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:This 10 page rule isn't effective, there needs to be at least 15-20 pages from what I see because there will be just too much clutter.



10,000 Post Katrina Thread and divide that into 10 Page Topics. See what I mean?


However... during the heat of the season, everytime someone opens up a 300 page thread... the server has to load up ALL 300 pages for EACH viewer. That puts unneeded load on the server. Therefore, the 10-page rule is effective.
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#563 Postby WindRunner » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:20 pm

Effective for the server load and thread viewing/loading times, not necessarily that effective in terms of the organization of the front page of the board.

But this isn't the place to argue about this anyway, as the thread about this is still stickied at the top of this forum. Any comments should be going there.
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#564 Postby AussieMark » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:20 pm

Darwin put on cyclone watch

DARWIN could be placed on a cyclone warning today, the weather bureau said last night.

"It's coming our way. That's what it boils down to," weather bureau senior forecaster Graeme King said.

And the bureau said Monica is the most intense in the Territory's history.

The bureau declared a cyclone watch yesterday as Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica tracked the Top End coastline.

But this could be upgraded today as the cyclone heads west along the Top End coast.

At 8pm last night the cyclone was located about 105km north-northeast of Nhulunbuy, moving west at 12km/h.

``It's an extraordinarily intense tropical cyclone _ 905 hectoPascals, maximum gusts of 350km/h. It's running parallel to the coast,'' Mr King said.

``It will weaken as it comes towards us but it will still be a significant cyclone _ it's not going to disappear ... overnight.

``The very destructive core is expected to impact between Milingimbi and Croker Island today.

``It will present a problem to Darwin at some stage. Certainly there's nothing to be complacent about.''

Darwin, Palmerston and rural residents spent the weekend preparing for the arrival of Cyclone Monica, with many supermarkets and service stations buckling under the increased customer load.

Caltex Karama assistant manager Paul Hanrahan said the weekend had ``just been chaotic''.

``Fuel sales have gone up quite considerably with people filling up their cars in case it does hit us,'' Mr Hanrahan said.

``It's been pretty constant. About 5pm or 6pm you get high traffic. And the shop sales went up.

``Everyone was stocking up on gas bottles. I've filled more gas bottles in the last two days than I have in the last two months.

``People were buying bottled and canned drinks, 12-packs of Coke, anything that can be put into a cupboard then later ... consumed.''

Last night a service station operator from Darwin's northern suburbs said customers were stocking up but not panicking.

``It's mainly people getting one or two things to prepare,'' he said.

``It's been busy, people are aware that it's coming.

``The bowsers are constantly used. Normally it's quiet on a Saturday night. We've sold out of gas.''

Supplies of milk, tinned food, torches and batteries ran low at Darwin supermarkets as people readied for Cyclone Monica.
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#565 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:21 pm

The thread has reached ten pages. Looks like it's time to open yet another new Monica thread. Wow! Fast!

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#566 Postby Scorpion » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:27 pm

Time to axe this 10 page rule.
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CHRISTY

#567 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:29 pm

Here's a forcast map from Hurricane Alley....

Image
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#568 Postby WindRunner » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:34 pm

Yeah, like that says, that's the the JTWC forecast plotted in Global Tracks. Never figured out, or liked for that matter, how the software comes up with the radius for each category's winds. A little inaccurate and misleading, if you ask me. For the defined radii, it does help to show the size/shape of the storm and the swath of those winds. Guess it's just another way to look at the same data, but I still prefer the official JTWC maps.
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#569 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:35 pm

Image

EVERY SHOULD REMIND MONICA THAT WEAKENING IS ALSO AN ASPECT OF A CYCLONE'S LIFE. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#570 Postby Rod Hagen » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:37 pm

milankovitch wrote:
There's no where to go but the inland parts of Darwin. Darwin is in the middle of nowhere.


AFTER Tracy there was a major evacuation from Darwin to Alice Springs, Adelaide and other southern centres.

Darwin is a much more "hardened" town these days than it was then, though (Tracy blew an awful lot of the less well constructed places away). I suspect that most people will stay.

Many of the schools, the courts, and other government buildings were rebuilt with provision for their use as cyclone shelters.

Still, there have been a whole generation of people who've grown up there without experiencing a really bad one. They may not be as well prepared as the "old hands". (I lived in the NT from 1975 to 1980, just after Tracey, and everyone there was very , very conscious of such things, not surprisingly)

The rebuilt housing has been built generally to very strict standards. I wouldn't want to be in any of the older places that survived Tracey more through luck than good construction though!


As far as the "best" possible track goes, its worth noting that a large amount of the expansion of Darwin has been in areas 10 kms to the north and north east of the town. South of the town, as well taking it over more land, would definitely impact on far less dwellings.



Cheers

Rod
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#571 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:42 pm

How many knots now? 160?
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#572 Postby Rod Hagen » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:43 pm

A Cyclone Warnings has now been issued for Darwin itself:

from http://www.abc.net.au/news/items/200604/1622064.htm

"Darwin awaits cyclone Monica's arrival

Monday, 24 April 2006. 07:48 (AEDT)

In for bad weather: Monica is expected to stay a category 5 cyclone.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning for Darwin as cyclone Monica moves closer.

A warning is now current for coastal and island communities between Nhulunbuy and the Daly River Mouth, including Darwin, Jabiru and the Cobourg Peninsula.

It means gale force winds could hit those areas within the next 24 hours.

The category 5 system is continuing to move west and the weather bureau says at this stage, the Cobourg Peninsula looks the most likely region to be hit by the eye of the cyclone.

Senior forecaster Graham King expects Monica will remain a category 5 system for most of the day.

"It's just far enough offshore at the moment that the really destructive winds are offshore but as it comes in towards the Cobourg Peninsula all those islands up there ... have the potential to get some pretty nasty weather," Mr King said.

Monica passed over Elcho Island this morning with no damage to buildings and no injuries.

Emergency services personnel at Nhulunbuy in north-east Arnhem Land have closed the town's cyclone shelter.

About 9:00pm ACST yesterday emergency crews sounded sirens in Nhulunbuy telling people they could leave their shelters.

Senior Sergeant Tony Fuller says some people had been in Nhulunbuy's cyclone shelter for 24 hours and it was time to let them go home.

"I know a lot of people were fairly bored especially in the shelters [and] we had some issues with people running out of food," he said.

Strong winds brought down several trees in the town last night but police say there has been no damage to houses.

Nhulunbuy police are still keeping an eye on people on two catamarans on the Wessel Island."

(The ABC NT news website is http://www.abc.net.au/nt/news/default.htm )

Cheers

Rod
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#573 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:43 pm

Still 155 knots but there is no clear signs of weakening. At least not significant weakening.
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Jim Cantore

#574 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:45 pm

Where are you guys getting these satelitte images?
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#575 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:47 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Where are you guys getting these satelitte images?


I assume you're talking about the metsat images that HURAKAN is posting... those are from NRL.
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#576 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:48 pm

#4 is up, #3 should be locked now.
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