I don't know it looks like a close call on this wave for the NE Caribbean islands - sure looks like the convection is perisisting nicely today but the shear is very strong still.

this will be a close call for the islands, I think.
The problem with these systems is that they dump a lot of wind and rain on us all at once. that's when we get flooding. Our roads sure don't have the proper drainage at any time, let alone when heavy rain is occurring.

when do you think it will reach our area?

ANOTHER HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16.5N-20N BETWEEN
56W-60W. WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
14N. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE FOR THE WINDWARD AND
ESPECIALLY LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR SAT.

Barbara,above is the 8 PM discussion.For you by tommorow and for me here in Puerto Rico for Sunday,so a wet fathers day.

Saturday..
ok.
Yes, we will get it before you, Luis!

What do you think the convection will be like as it gets closer - will it still be as strong as it is now? What are your thoughts?

Needs to be watched closely..Convection is deep this evening. Could become a flood threat for the islands..

Closeup Image of NE Caribbean



http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... loope.html



Loop

Let's continue to follow the movement of this wave as it moves thru the NE Caribbean and see what effects it will have in the islands in terms of rainfall and winds.

Right now all is quiet in San Juan with sunny skies.

Wave is about to enter a lower-shear environment (10-20 knots vs 20-40 knots) over the eastern Caribbean...plus the early morning visibles show the low-mid-level circulation that was near Barbados last night has migrated WNW to around 14.5/56...with intense convection just north of this "center"...I'll be watching for any wind shifts from the Islands today.

Sunny with clouds here, with a light breeze. Hoping for a whole day to keep the cart open!!

partly cloudy here. almost no wind

Fellow members who live in the NE Caribbean islands.If you see wind shifts in your area post them here to see if with the observations we can detect something spinning or nothing is there.Also check the pressures.

In San Juan it's sunny with calm winds and 29.98 mbs the pressure.

west to east then north to south:

Charlotte Amalie St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport, Virgin Islands (TIST) 18-20N 064-59W
Jun 17, 2006 - 08:53 AM EDT / 2006.06.17 1253 UTC
Wind: from the SE (130 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT) (direction variable):0
Visibility: 10 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: partly cloudy
Temperature: 84.9 F (29.4 C)
Dew Point: 73.9 F (23.3 C)
Relative Humidity: 69%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.97 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob: TIST 171253Z 13010KT 100V240 10SM FEW022 SCT060 29/23 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP150 T02940233
cycle: 13

Christiansted, Henry E. Rohlsen Airport, Virgin Islands (TISX) 17-42N 064-48W 17M
Jun 17, 2006 - 07:53 AM EDT / 2006.06.17 1153 UTC
Wind: from the ESE (120 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT):0
Visibility: 10 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: partly cloudy
Temperature: 82.9 F (28.3 C)
Dew Point: 73.9 F (23.3 C)
Relative Humidity: 74%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.99 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
Pressure tendency: 0.04 inches (1.3 hPa) higher than three hours ago
ob: TISX 171153Z 12010KT 10SM FEW021 SCT025 28/23 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP152 T02830233 10289 20256 51013
cycle: 12

Juliana Airport, Saint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles (TNCM) 18-03N 063-07W 9M
Jun 17, 2006 - 08:00 AM EDT / 2006.06.17 1200 UTC
Wind: from the ESE (110 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT) (direction variable):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: partly cloudy
Weather: Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature: 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point: 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity: 74%
Pressure (altimeter): 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob: TNCM 171200Z 11009KT 080V140 9999 SCT020TCU 28/23 Q1016 TCU E
cycle: 12

Vc Bird International Airport Antigua, Antigua and Barbuda (TAPA) 17-07N 061-47W 10M
Jun 17, 2006 - 03:00 AM EDT / 2006.06.17 0700 UTC
Wind: from the ESE (110 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly clear
Temperature: 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point: 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity: 74%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob: TAPA 170700Z 11014KT 9999 FEW018 27/22 Q1013
cycle: 7

Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe (TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M
Jun 17, 2006 - 09:00 AM EDT / 2006.06.17 1300 UTC
Wind: from the E (090 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT) (direction variable):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Weather: light rain
Temperature: 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point: 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob: TFFR 171300Z 09010KT 060V120 9999 -RA FEW015 BKN020 27/25 Q1015 TEMPO SHRA
cycle: 13

Canefield Airport, Dominica (TDCF) 15-32N 061-24W 5M
Jun 17, 2006 - 09:00 AM EDT / 2006.06.17 1300 UTC
Wind: from the SE (130 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: partly cloudy
Weather: light rain showers
Temperature: 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point: 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity: 83%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob: TDCF 171300Z 13003KT 9999 -SHRA SCT012 SCT034 27/24 Q1014
cycle: 13

Le Lamentin, Martinique (TFFF) 14-36N 061-00W 7M
Jun 17, 2006 - 09:04 AM EDT / 2006.06.17 1304 UTC
Wind: from the E (100 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT) (direction variable):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Weather: light rain showers; Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature: 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point: 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob: TFFF 171304Z 10007KT 060V140 9999 -SHRA FEW016CB SCT020 BKN300 27/25 Q1015 CB E
cycle: 13

(no current report from St. Lucia)

Arnos Vale, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (TVSV) 13-08N 061-12W 13M
Jun 17, 2006 - 09:00 AM EDT / 2006.06.17 1300 UTC
Wind: from the ESE (120 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Temperature: 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point: 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity: 74%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob: TVSV 171300Z 12010KT 9999 SCT022 BKN280 29/24 Q1015
cycle: 13

Grantley Adams, Barbados (TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
Jun 17, 2006 - 09:00 AM EDT / 2006.06.17 1300 UTC
Wind: from the SE (130 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Temperature: 86 F (30 C)
Heat index: 95.0 F (35.0 C):1
Dew Point: 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity: 70%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob: TBPB 171300Z 13009KT 9999 SCT016 BKN280 30/24 Q1015 JP-NNW
cycle: 13

winds here continue from ESE
No drop in pressure yet
9 AM (13) Jun 17 84 (29) 73 (23) 30.00 (1016) ESE 12
8 AM (12) Jun 17 82 (28) 73 (23) 30.00 (1016) ESE 10
7 AM (11) Jun 17 80 (27) 71 (22) 30.00 (1016) ESE 10

Bvigal,nothing suspisious so far according from those observations that you posted.

msbee,also nothing to open eyebrows from St Marteen.

Right, Luis. I've been checking the dvorak loop, and it looks like this thing is splitting just like the SJU forecasters said this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-bd.html

Edit: By the way, you can cut and paste the following into a plain text email and send to ftpmail (at) weather.noaa.gov to get the readings from San Juan to Trinidad

open weather.noaa.gov
cd data/observations/metar/decoded
get TJSJ.TXT
get TIST.TXT
get TISX.TXT
get TNCM.TXT
get TNPK.TXT
get TAPA.TXT
get TFFR.TXT
get TDCF.TXT
get TDPD.TXT
get TFFF.TXT
get TLPL.TXT
get TVSV.TXT
get TBPB.TXT
get TGPY.TXT
get TTCP.TXT
quit

Thanks my friend.

thanks bvigirl
that's good to know

Barbara

As of 10 AM Eastern:

this figures I'm on my way to the bvi and wll lose intenet after I leave san juan in 15 min. can anyone tell me when it should get to the bvi and when it should be gone.