This afternoon,the winds haved increased a bit with readings between 18-23 mph sustaineed and winds gusting between 23-29 mph,those numbers from my anemometer.No rain yet here in San Juan but a shower is to my east closing in.For sure shower activity will be on the increase tonight and tommorow as the wave moves thru.

It's very breezy here too Luis
Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT) gusting to 29 MPH (25 KT) (direction variable)

but the skies are blue!

Barbara

I know this is off topic for this thread, but could you post a link of where I can get some observations for the Bahamas....NOT buoy obs....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html
just click on the red dots

thanks...

FXCA62 TJSJ 192000
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST MON JUN 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...SCATTRED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 2 INCHES. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AT AROUND
SUNSET BUT A FEW COULD HOLD ON AND MOVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A DELAY ON THE ARRIVAL OF
WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS...MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS...AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62 WEST THIS AFTERNOON WAS MOVING
WEST AT 20 KNOTS...AND WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE
MORE WEST NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE THAT
WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITH AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE LATER TONIGHT...AND
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.


&&

.MARINE...SQUALLS ASSOCIATED TOP THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT AND HIGHER ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
LATER TONIGHT OUT AHEAD AND WITH OF THE WAVE AXIS. ALSO INCREASING
SEAS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY.

Maybe they will issue a wind advisory by tommorow for higher elevations.

Well, good, I don't mind that forecast. I like it when my gardens are watered at night (and when it's cool at night, rain pounding on the tin roof) and I can keep the cart open all day It's been really hot here today, overcast and hot but with some breeze. I just am hoping that Thursday will be rain free for my outdoor birthday party! I hate wet sushi!

Happy Birthday..... it looks like we could get some rain, dreary and very muggy out.

Hey MJ
Have a happy birthday no matter what the weather!


Barbara

I second what the above ladies said.Happy Birthday MJ and have many more.Enjoy your day regardless what kind of weather it will be.

Someone had a birthday?.... Well Happy Birthday from Metairie!

A2K

Question for all

I don't know if this was discussed before, but hasn't there been bad hurricanes shortly after dust stroms in the Atlantic or is the storms generally weaker later after dust storms, the reason why I ask is because there is a dust storm coming off of Africa stated from NOAA

Happy B-Day

Happy Birthday!

Gosh! Well, thanks for the nice wishes! It isn't until Thursday but celebrations have started already (old Taino Indian custom ).
We didn't get the squalls here during the night, but it sure looks like we could get something. The wind has definitely picked up...but it feels great after the sultry air we've had lately.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200946
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST TUE JUN 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA AND THE A-B-C ISLANDS THIS
MORNING NNE ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE W
AT 20 KT. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TRAILS THE LLVL TROF AXIS ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CONNECTS TO THE ITCZ...WITH MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS FIRING DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS THE WINDWARDS AND
CARIB TO THEIR WEST...UNDER AN UPPER HIGH AND ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. SWLY SHEAR ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEING FURTHER
ENHANCED BY LLVL WIND SURGE ACCOMPANYING WAVE...BUT STILL WITH
SQUALLS AND TSTORMS MOVING WNW 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF AND ISOLATED TOPS 45 TO 50K FT. BANDS AND
CLUSTERS OF TSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO HIT THE SRN SLOPES OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE LEAVING
HEAVY RAIN AND INDUCING URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING...THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO ADVECT NW INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAKENING LLVL WIND FLOW MAY
ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH SLOWER CELL MOTION.
FOCUS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NW OF PR...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE E AND S COASTS AND
SLOPES AGAIN TONIGHT. ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE VERY HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS IS FORECASTING ABUNDANT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND OCCURS SUNDAY-
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
AT THE MINIMUM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF SAL
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LLVL WIND SURGE AND 20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS MOVED THROUGH THE
CARIB WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND WERE IN THE LOCAL SW CARIB WATERS AND
S MONA PASSAGE AT SUNRISE. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND SCATTERED TSTORMS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS SURGE AND MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL CARIB
WATERS AND INTO PORTIONS OF PR OVERNIGHT...WHERE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED PERIODS OF 30 KT WINDS AT THE RADAR SITE...ONE GUST TO
53 MPH REPORTED BY OUR MAN IN ST CROIX...AND NOAA CREWS STATION IN
LA PARGUERA REPORTED A GUST TO 30 KT. NO OFF SHORE OBS TO REPORT.
WIND SURGE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE WNW TODAY LEAVING GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS...AND SEAS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SQUALLS AND INTENSE TSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MOVING NW THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS NOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT. SCA
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND THEN FOR THE OFF SHORE CARIB WATERS ONLY TONIGHT.


Discussion about what to expect today and next few days.

Here in San Juan not much rain overnight,however plenty of rain is falling in southern Puerto Rico.

not much happening here.
showers overnight and this morning have given us about 1/2 inch of rain.
that's all
Latest observations from SXM airport:

Conditions at

2006.06.20 1200 UTC
Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.03 in. Hg (1017 hPa)
ob TNCM 201200Z 11011KT 070V160 9999 BKN019TCU BKN300 27/24 Q1017

Heavy rains and strong gusts of wind now covering pretty much all of the BVI. Looks like this batch already crossed over St. Croix.



Conditions out on the water, just called in from ship's captain:
Heavy rain and thunder
Visibility 100yds or less
Wind direction and speed variable, mostly E/SE with gusts to 35mph
Seas (in protected channel) 4-5ft from SE

As I type this I am under a heavy thunderstorm with gusty winds around 34 mph by my anemometer.So if I am not here this afternoon you know that lack of power is the cause.

First off,

MJ, have a GREAT BIRTHDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!! (I know it's no until Thursday, but in case I have another day or two like yesterday when I can't hardly get on here!)

Secondly, take a look at any color infrared and see the two coliding air masses blow up into all this rain we're having today. It's almost like a weather lesson!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html