Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Hyperstorm
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Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby Hyperstorm » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:00 pm

Image

Don't discount this area of low pressure located near 18N 43W.

While conditions are not favorable for quick development right now, there are signs that the SAL is fading as it moves westward and upper-level winds could become marginally favorable during the day tomorrow. The GFS is forecasting the trough to the west and northwest to split into a HUGE upper-level low that covers the entire Western Atlantic and Caribbean. If that verifies, there should be favorable conditions through the next 48 hours for some development.

Yesterday, we saw puffs of thunderstorms developing near the circulation. Today, those puffs became more concentrated near the center of the low. This indicates that as the system moves slowly westward the dry air is not being as much of a factor. Keep in mind that this system already has an area of circulation, so any major increase in convection could bring this system to a tropical depression during the next 48 hours.

I'll keep an eye on it as it is possible an invest classification will be issued sometime tomorrow.

EDIT: CHANGE TITLE OF THREAD
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:04 pm

Great post Hyperstorm..This system has been showing a descent area of low pressure since it went off the coast(clearly seen in visible imagery)... Lets see what happens..
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:08 pm

Hyperstorm,to not confuse the members as they see the pic and look at that area of convection around 30w-35w,let's clarify what area you are talking about .The area Hyperstorm is talking about is around 18n-43w.
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#4 Postby Jam151 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:09 pm

Yeah i just notcied this myself, something to watch. We could have two systems in the next few days...
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:43 pm

This system only needs an organized area of convection to be classified as a cyclone. The most important part is already there, a well-defined LLC.
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#6 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:11 pm

Looks very much like a developing TC. What do the models forecast?
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#7 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:52 pm

I posted this on another forum....from this closeup loop you can see that the tail end of this LLC tap into some moisture from the ITZC and brought it up into the COC. Look to the top of the page.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:10 pm

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LIMITED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD.

10:30 PM TWO for this low.
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#9 Postby WindRunner » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:24 pm

ROCK wrote:I posted this on another forum....from this closeup loop you can see that the tail end of this LLC tap into some moisture from the ITZC and brought it up into the COC. Look to the top of the page.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls


Once I looked all the way up at the top I finally saw it. If you know where you're looking, that's a very good loop to show the LLC and the convective burst.
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#10 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:40 pm

this is looking pretty good to me now! Looks like the 2 areas have consolidated into one. This SHOULD be our next depression soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg
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#11 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:41 pm

I really can't believe that discussion given how well it looks.
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#12 Postby WxGuy1 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:49 pm

Latest TRMM rain-rate product indicates that showers aren't terribly widespread (SEE HERE), and neither does AMSU imagery (SEE HERE).

AMSU precipitable water imagery indicates that there's quite a bit of dry air north of 15N, though south of that latitude is better (see HERE). SAR imagery from UWisc indicates that this cyclone-inhibitor shouldn't be a big problem.
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#13 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:01 pm

I think it looks better than Ernesto to tell you the truth (not just a joke but I had to say it).... :P
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#14 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:I really can't believe that discussion given how well it looks.


Yes, there is a big round ball of convection, but this system is a long way from being a TD. The actual low level spin is well to the east of the convection. Also, please don't discount the models. Without fail, all the models show a very S-L-O-W development. I'm guessing that a TD WILL form from this cluster, but not until the weekend.
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#15 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:03 am

ABNT20 KNHC 300924
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO..
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW
MOVES WESTWARD.
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:40 am

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 23N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD.
A COUPLE SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
42W-46W.


8 AM Discussion.
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#17 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:29 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
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#18 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:50 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302058
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
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#19 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:29 pm

HURAKAN wrote:This system only needs an organized area of convection to be classified as a cyclone. The most important part is already there, a well-defined LLC.


Looks like it might be getting it as we type. Good little ball of convection blowing up over the center the past few frames. No doubt there's a well-defined LLC there, either.
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#20 Postby Bgator » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:11 pm

Dr. MAsters made a good point in his blogs, though right now SAL is not allowing for any convection, once it reaches the PR/Bahamas area, which it should it will be in a much better enviroment for convection flare ups, and it already has a LLC, so it is something to watch, many storms form over the bahamas, and if it formed near PR it would have a lot of time..
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