ENSO Updates

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
benny
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:09 am
Location: Miami

#21 Postby benny » Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:38 pm

El Nino is basically dead. Let's see if a transition to La Nina can happen. It almost did in 2003 but it was shunted.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117767
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 27, 2007 5:37 pm

Image

Image

The warm anomalies continue to fade slowly away meaning that El Nino is weakening.Let's see in the comming weeks how the anomalies evolve,however by looking at the subsurface waters graphic,the cool waters are expanding eastward thru the equatorial pacific.
0 likes   

User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#23 Postby AussieMark » Sat Jan 27, 2007 7:47 pm

el nino has been weakening for a while now
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117767
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 28, 2007 8:02 pm

AussieMark wrote:el nino has been weakening for a while now


Agree.This week the Aussies will release the latest update for ENSO.Let's see what they say about the weakening of El Nino.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4583
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#25 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Jan 28, 2007 8:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:
AussieMark wrote:el nino has been weakening for a while now


Agree.This week the Aussies will release the latest update for ENSO.Let's see what they say about the weakening of El Nino.


Do you know specifically what day of the week they will be releasing their update?

<RICKY>
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117767
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 28, 2007 8:43 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
AussieMark wrote:el nino has been weakening for a while now


Agree.This week the Aussies will release the latest update for ENSO.Let's see what they say about the weakening of El Nino.


Do you know specifically what day of the week they will be releasing their update?

<RICKY>


On Wednesday.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#27 Postby AussieMark » Sun Jan 28, 2007 10:26 pm

thats Wednesday aussie time ;)
0 likes   

Jim Hughes
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:52 pm
Location: Martinsburg West Virginia

#28 Postby Jim Hughes » Mon Jan 29, 2007 6:51 am

The newest added subsurface clip for the 1/18 shows it weakening even more. Most of the warmth is now limited to just the top 50 meters except between 160E and the dateline. This turn around could be historic if we were to see negative anomalies at the surface by the end of February. No La Nina has ever started this early.

Is it a coincidence that we just saw the strongest space weather spike at this stage of the solar cycle in early to mid December? I think not.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117767
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#29 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 29, 2007 7:58 am

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

The near-equatorial Pacific cooled during January with the latest weekly values of the Pacific NINO3 (eastern Pacific, +0.8°C), NINO3.4 (central Pacific, +0.6°C) and NINO4 (western Pacific, +0.7°C) now close to or below their El Niño thresholds.

The ENSO models in their January update are showing the continued weakening of El Nino with some signs of below El Nino thresholds.
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#30 Postby P.K. » Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:41 am

Latest weekly anomalies to 28/1 are:

Nino 1: +0.28C
Nino 2: +0.26C
Nino 3: +0.64C
Nino 3.4: +0.43C
Nino 4: +0.57C

Still looks to me like the BoM will declare it neutral within a month or so.
0 likes   

Jim Hughes
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:52 pm
Location: Martinsburg West Virginia

#31 Postby Jim Hughes » Mon Jan 29, 2007 11:26 am

P.K. wrote:Latest weekly anomalies to 28/1 are:

Nino 1: +0.28C
Nino 2: +0.26C
Nino 3: +0.64C
Nino 3.4: +0.43C
Nino 4: +0.57C

Still looks to me like the BoM will declare it neutral within a month or so.


So the 3.4 region is below +.50 now. This would be considered neutral in a monthly reading. This just basically nailed the coffin on the El Nino.
0 likes   

User avatar
AZRainman
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:48 pm
Location: Sonoran Desert
Contact:

#32 Postby AZRainman » Mon Jan 29, 2007 12:52 pm

Here's the link to the above regions:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml

Looks like it will be an active year...
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#33 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Jan 29, 2007 1:39 pm

Looks like the NPAC anomalies may be undergoing a configuration alteration. Note the warming off the western North American coastline at the surface and the eastward expansion of some of the warmer SST anomalies off Japan. Along with other Pacific and Indian Ocean SST and subsurface changes, this could signal a gradual change to a +PDO.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 6.2007.gif

In addition, note the alteration of the South Pacific SSTs. You can clearly see an intensifying warm pool off coastal eastern and southeast Australia. This provide a surface and subsurface push for transport of cooler subsurface and surface temperature anomalies eastward towards South America. Despite the surface warming of SSTs east of New Zealand from January 23 to the latest pass, the other synoptics and cooling subsurface of the equatorial Pacific support a gradual transition to neutral ENSO and eventually a potential Nina in most of the NINO zones.

In addition, the warmer southwest South Indian Ocean south of Madagascar has cooled somewhat at the surface and subsurface. This could also alter the current transport and thus - along with the warming eastern Australian SSTs - aid in a further cool push - both at the surface and subsurface - in the South Pacific, especially when you consider the cool surface and subsurface configuration emerging south of New Zealand.

The next few months will be critical.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Mon Jan 29, 2007 1:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#34 Postby P.K. » Mon Jan 29, 2007 1:40 pm

Jim Hughes wrote:So the 3.4 region is below +.50 now. This would be considered neutral in a monthly reading. This just basically nailed the coffin on the El Nino.


That is only the week 22/1 to 28/1. The average of the last four weeks is +0.69C. To show how this is affecting the longer term average I updated my Nino 3.4 graph earlier.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117767
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 29, 2007 1:46 pm

Image

Definitly compared to the past 4 weeks,this latest graphic shows the cooling of the sst anomalies at el nino 3-4 areas.And as eluded by other members those cooler waters are expanding eastward and will reach el nino 1-2 area soon.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117767
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 30, 2007 2:17 pm

P.K. wrote:Latest weekly anomalies to 28/1 are:

Nino 1: +0.28C
Nino 2: +0.26C
Nino 3: +0.64C
Nino 3.4: +0.43C
Nino 4: +0.57C

Still looks to me like the BoM will declare it neutral within a month or so.


Let's see what will BoM say tommorow to see if they are with Neutral conditions or as you say they will be on the Neutral campus by Febuary.IMO,the Aussies will not declare ENSO Neutral yet,but they will say that El Nino thresholds are almost not met.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Jim Hughes
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:52 pm
Location: Martinsburg West Virginia

#37 Postby Jim Hughes » Tue Jan 30, 2007 3:12 pm

P.K. wrote:
Jim Hughes wrote:So the 3.4 region is below +.50 now. This would be considered neutral in a monthly reading. This just basically nailed the coffin on the El Nino.


That is only the week 22/1 to 28/1. The average of the last four weeks is +0.69C. To show how this is affecting the longer term average I updated my Nino 3.4 graph earlier.



Yes I know but it has more meaning now then it would have two months ago. The weeklies fluctuate as you well know but all the trends at the surface and subsurface support this steady weakening. So it has meaning here.

I expect to see negative weekly anomalies show up in about 6 weeks. Maybe even sooner. The monthy and tri monthly negative anomalies will eventually follow suit.
0 likes   

User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#38 Postby AussieMark » Tue Jan 30, 2007 3:21 pm

the past 13 weeks of Nino 3.4 is

2006103020061105 0.91
2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
2006112720061203 1.25
2006120420061210 1.31
2006121120061217 1.17
2006121820061224 1.14
2006122520061231 1.06
2007010120070107 0.92
2007010820070114 0.83
2007011520070121 0.57
2007012220070128 0.43


the 3 month average is +1.02

another month of this (i.e no weakening) and it will barely be el nino at 0.80

however if it continues to dive as fast as the last few weeks this figure could be reached a lot sooner

also at this rate only has 9-10 weeks left of what NOAA class as a el nino i.e 0.5C anomality

again depends on the rate of anomality

but 9-10 weeks is the max could be over before then if there is more agressive cooling of the Nino 3.4 region like the last 3 weeks have been
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117767
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:14 pm

El Nino 3 data:

2006103020061105 0.88
2006110620061112 0.96
2006111320061119 1.08
2006120420061210 1.14 :larrow: Warm Temps Peaked
2006121120061217 1.12
2006121820061224 1.13
2006122520061231 1.11
2007010120070107 1.03
2007010820070114 0.95
2007011520070121 0.77
2007012220070128 0.64

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml

El Nino 3 area also shows the data of temps going down after the warm anomalies peaked on December 4th.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#40 Postby AussieMark » Tue Jan 30, 2007 9:27 pm

CURRENT STATUS as at 31st January 2007
Next update expected by 21st February 2007 (three weeks after this update).

There has been a sustained cooling of the equatorial Pacific since early December, with current SST anomalies now close to their El Niño thresholds. This is the clearest sign that the El Niño event is weakening and it bodes well for a switch towards average or wetter than average conditions across eastern Australia sometime in the late summer or autumn. In fact, we've already seen a southward extension of tropical moisture which resulted in heavy rain over the NT, SA and the western parts of Queensland, NSW and Victoria. This can be taken as a sign that rainfall patterns are beginning to change across Australia, the timing of which is consistent with that observed during previous events.

In addition to the surface cooling, there has been substantial cooling below the surface; a situation that is likely to promote further weakening of the surface El Niño pattern. However, the SOI, Trade Winds and central-western Pacific cloudiness have seen their decline towards neutral values arrested somewhat during January, in association with a westerly wind burst mid-month. The westerly burst has now dissipated, so it is expected that these other ENSO indicators will continue their general trend towards neutrality over the coming months, in keeping with the weakening of the El Niño event. Furthermore, computer modelling supports the view that the El Niño will continue to decline.

* Equatorial Pacific SSTs have cooled and are close to or below El Niño thresholds.
* Negative subsurface anomalies have strengthened and spread further east along the thermocline and have nearly reached the surface in the eastern Pacific.
* The SOI has a current (29th January) 30-day value of −9.
* Trade Winds have generally been somewhat stronger than average apart from a weakening in the central-west Pacific in the middle of the month.
* Cloudiness near the date-line has recently been above average.
* Most computer models predict the decay of El Niño conditions in the first half of 2007.

Source
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 1900hurricane, Google Adsense [Bot] and 12 guests