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cycloneye
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#41 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 30, 2007 9:36 pm

AussieMark wrote:CURRENT STATUS as at 31st January 2007
Next update expected by 21st February 2007 (three weeks after this update).

There has been a sustained cooling of the equatorial Pacific since early December, with current SST anomalies now close to their El Niño thresholds. This is the clearest sign that the El Niño event is weakening and it bodes well for a switch towards average or wetter than average conditions across eastern Australia sometime in the late summer or autumn. In fact, we've already seen a southward extension of tropical moisture which resulted in heavy rain over the NT, SA and the western parts of Queensland, NSW and Victoria. This can be taken as a sign that rainfall patterns are beginning to change across Australia, the timing of which is consistent with that observed during previous events.

In addition to the surface cooling, there has been substantial cooling below the surface; a situation that is likely to promote further weakening of the surface El Niño pattern. However, the SOI, Trade Winds and central-western Pacific cloudiness have seen their decline towards neutral values arrested somewhat during January, in association with a westerly wind burst mid-month. The westerly burst has now dissipated, so it is expected that these other ENSO indicators will continue their general trend towards neutrality over the coming months, in keeping with the weakening of the El Niño event. Furthermore, computer modelling supports the view that the El Niño will continue to decline.

* Equatorial Pacific SSTs have cooled and are close to or below El Niño thresholds.
* Negative subsurface anomalies have strengthened and spread further east along the thermocline and have nearly reached the surface in the eastern Pacific.
* The SOI has a current (29th January) 30-day value of −9.
* Trade Winds have generally been somewhat stronger than average apart from a weakening in the central-west Pacific in the middle of the month.
* Cloudiness near the date-line has recently been above average.
* Most computer models predict the decay of El Niño conditions in the first half of 2007.

Source


Almost getting to Neutral conditions right now according to the Aussies.
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#42 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:41 am

Equatorial Pacific SSTs have cooled and are close to or below El Niño thresholds.

The bulletin has contradictions. Why they insist El Niño is still present if SSTs are now below El Niño thresholds. We are back to neutrality already. Another note:

Most computer models predict the decay of El Niño conditions in the first half of 2007.

They should look their own model. Come on !! "Decay of El Niño during the first half of 2007 ? By May/June we could be under a La Niña.

Too conservative !!! How much time it will take to NOAA to review its stand on the El Niño event. They are still predicting El conditions from "March to May".

The Pacific is cooling very rapidly and sooner than later we will be discussing a La Niña event.
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#43 Postby AussieMark » Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:26 am

weekly values are below el nino levels but the 3 month average isn't ;)

this was the BOM update btw not the NOAA one ;)

remember not many if any of the COmputer models called for a el nino in 2006/07
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#44 Postby Jim Hughes » Wed Jan 31, 2007 6:41 am

AussieMark wrote:weekly values are below el nino levels but the 3 month average isn't ;)

this was the BOM update btw not the NOAA one ;)

remember not many if any of the COmputer models called for a el nino in 2006/07


Using a three month average is alright but there are ramifications to this. Does the public want a forecast or do they want to hear what is basically already known?

Let's go a month or so ahead here and take for granted the SST's are neutral- cooler. Talking about a positive 3 month average, could in no way correctly relate to the current scenario.

This would be like me talking about how the 30 day mean temperature average is currently considerably above average but we are about to see an artic outbreak in about four days.

So we are supposed to forget about how cold it is since it was so warm before?

I believe a three month SST average would better serve it's purpose if they included the warmth lost also. This would then show how warm it had been but it would also show the sharp changes. There by slightly eliminating the volatility of the SST changes. Which is what the purpose of the current three month average is anyway.
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#45 Postby AussieMark » Wed Jan 31, 2007 6:57 am

same as when we enter a el nino

as soon as a weekly figure hits 0.50 0r 0.80 we don't declare it el nino ;)

as the weekly figures do fluctuate a bit

thats why I thought a 3 month average is better way to do it
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#46 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Wed Jan 31, 2007 7:29 am

AussieMark wrote:same as when we enter a el nino

as soon as a weekly figure hits 0.50 0r 0.80 we don't declare it el nino ;)

as the weekly figures do fluctuate a bit

thats why I thought a 3 month average is better way to do it


Aussie

I get your point. What I am trying to say is that TODAY's reality does not authorize there is an El Niño under way. If you consider the three-month average, of course, you get the warmer waters influence of November and December 2006. But the reality of November 2006 was much different from todaý's reality. The most prudent aproach I believe is to notice the public that El Niño conditions continue ONLY by the average, but the actual data no more suggest the contintuation of the event. Jim, I became a huge fan of his ideas, also has a very good point.

By the way, Aussie, your country is extraordinary !!!!

Alexandre
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#47 Postby P.K. » Wed Jan 31, 2007 7:41 am

MetSul Weather Center wrote:The bulletin has contradictions. Why they insist El Niño is still present if SSTs are now below El Niño thresholds. We are back to neutrality already. Another note:

They should look their own model. Come on !! "Decay of El Niño during the first half of 2007 ? By May/June we could be under a La Niña.


As Mark says from memory this is the first week all Nino regions have been below El Nino levels so too early to just say it is neutral. It does look very much like it will have cooled down long enough very soon to be back neutral though.

The POAMA currently has a 0.0% run frequency of a La Nina by May and a 2.3% frequency by June. A greater proportion than that are saying El Nino again by then, the vast majority though saying neutral so I'm not sure where you are getting that from.
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#48 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:23 am

P.K. wrote:
MetSul Weather Center wrote:The bulletin has contradictions. Why they insist El Niño is still present if SSTs are now below El Niño thresholds. We are back to neutrality already. Another note:

They should look their own model. Come on !! "Decay of El Niño during the first half of 2007 ? By May/June we could be under a La Niña.


As Mark says from memory this is the first week all Nino regions have been below El Nino levels so too early to just say it is neutral. It does look very much like it will have cooled down long enough very soon to be back neutral though.

The POAMA currently has a 0.0% run frequency of a La Nina by May and a 2.3% frequency by June. A greater proportion than that are saying El Nino again by then, the vast majority though saying neutral so I'm not sure where you are getting that from.


Dear PK

If the thresholds for an El Niño are not met at this time the real time condition of the Pacific is not of a warm phase. If the condition RIGHT NOW do not meet the standards of an El Niño and the phase is not cool, what you would call it ? Here are the anomalies for 01/28:

Nino 1: +0.28C
Nino 2: +0.26C
Nino 3: +0.64C
Nino 3.4: +0.43C
Nino 4: +0.57C

The cooling is ocurring very rapidly. Very soon, maybe still in February, Niño 1+2 will already be in the negative territory. You mention the POAMA model, but if you check it daily and you may be remembered that two months prior to the El Niño declaration by NOAA in 2006 the POAMA model was not indicating a high percentage of a warm phase. Do you remember PK the POAMA indications two weeks ago ? July was near 0.5 and August 0.5. Now it is near zero all over the first half of the year. The model is behind the speed of the cooling and it is running to catch it. Note the first 15 runs (red line) and the trend in the last 15 runs (blue lines):

Image

See also NOAA's CFS trend to Niño 1+2 (major player of weather in South America) as the model inticates it will be plunged in very negative territory by March and April.

Image

Or you can check the FSU climate model:

Image

As a user in this forum said in the last page, El Niño is basically dead and the question now is if a La Lina will develop in the next few months.

One thing we are sure and you can take not of that. The fall period in South America southernmost areas (Southern Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile) may figure among the coldest in many years due to the influence of the very negative signal in the Nino 1+2 region indicated by CFS. The NOAA's CFS model corroborates the idea of an unusual cold autumn in this part of the globe.

Time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but we still believe this 2006/2007 El Niño is gone and that La Niña is a possible scenario in the newxt months.

Best wishes PK and nice to change ideas with you !!

Alexandre
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#49 Postby MWatkins » Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:27 am

Wow, I didn't read through every single post, but subsurface, things are cooling off rapidly, and are not that much different than this time last year, when La Nina conditions were proclaimed by CPC:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ ... m_comp.gif

In fact the cold layer is more widespread...and the warm pocket in the c-pac is fading away.

We may see a rather quick move toward Nina conditions, even if it will take some time to actually get there "officially".

This appears right now to be the first year in a long time (perhaps since 2003) where there is almost no concern that a Nino could get going around April/May/June.

MW
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#50 Postby Jim Hughes » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:02 pm

MWatkins wrote:Wow, I didn't read through every single post, but subsurface, things are cooling off rapidly, and are not that much different than this time last year, when La Nina conditions were proclaimed by CPC:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ ... m_comp.gif

In fact the cold layer is more widespread...and the warm pocket in the c-pac is fading away.

We may see a rather quick move toward Nina conditions, even if it will take some time to actually get there "officially".

This appears right now to be the first year in a long time (perhaps since 2003) where there is almost no concern that a Nino could get going around April/May/June.

MW


The current conditions are actually almost like night and day Mike compared to last year. Or at least they will be within another month or so. Sub surface wise.

My first thoughts about an EL Nino developing , or pattern change away from the La Nina , were almost exactly around this very time frame one year ago. These comments were made over at easternuswx and I had based this on the behavior of the stratosphere and the subsurface readings. But my thoughts about the latter subject matter might have came in February.
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#51 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:55 pm

Hi Alexandre

Now let's see what Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) says in it's Febuary 8th update to see if they continue to be behind BoM (the Aussies) or they will be in the same page.IMO I dont think that NOAA will declare El Nino dead just yet,but they may narrow the timeframe of El nino thru April instead of May.
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#52 Postby P.K. » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:28 pm

If the thresholds for an El Niño are not met at this time the real time condition of the Pacific is not of a warm phase. If the condition RIGHT NOW do not meet the standards of an El Niño and the phase is not cool, what you would call it ? Here are the anomalies for 01/28:

The cooling is ocurring very rapidly. Very soon, maybe still in February, Niño 1+2 will already be in the negative territory. You mention the POAMA model, but if you check it daily and you may be remembered that two months prior to the El Niño declaration by NOAA in 2006 the POAMA model was not indicating a high percentage of a warm phase. Do you remember PK the POAMA indications two weeks ago ? July was near 0.5 and August 0.5. Now it is near zero all over the first half of the year. The model is behind the speed of the cooling and it is running to catch it. Note the first 15 runs (red line) and the trend in the last 15 runs (blue lines):

As a user in this forum said in the last page, El Niño is basically dead and the question now is if a La Lina will develop in the next few months.

One thing we are sure and you can take not of that. The fall period in South America southernmost areas (Southern Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile) may figure among the coldest in many years due to the influence of the very negative signal in the Nino 1+2 region indicated by CFS. The NOAA's CFS model corroborates the idea of an unusual cold autumn in this part of the globe.

Time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but we still believe this 2006/2007 El Niño is gone and that La Niña is a possible scenario in the newxt months.


As I said last September I still think the NOAA called it too early given what they classify as warm ENSO on their website, it is slightly different to the BoM classification. I should point out here I mainly go by the BoM data as it is all updated more often etc.

Take the Nino 3.4 anomalies for instance last September. The first week the +0.8C threshold was met, the week 18/9 to 24/9, at +0.81C over the following two weeks in then dropped to +0.64C. Got to be careful with using a single weeks data for something which evolves over a much longer period than that. Ninos 3 and 4 also dropped a fair bit over that period but as we know these things can fluctuate a fair bit.

Don't worry I agree it is pretty much gone, I've been saying so for a fair few weeks now. Just will take a little while to technically get back to neutral if that makes sense. The averages are starting to fall away pretty quickly now. I believe it may be back to the neutral level by the next BoM update on 21/2.

It is true to say that the cooling has been greater than forecast by the POAMA from looking at it over the last few weeks. It still isn't going to cool ENSO in many of the runs though, and that FSU model isn't either using the BoM criteria although it is meeting the NOAA criteria by the northern hemisphere summer. The ECMWF forecast from earlier in the month looks pretty neutral to the end of the forecast period as are most of the other models. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
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#53 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:Hi Alexandre

Now let's see what Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) says in it's Febuary 8th update to see if they continue to be behind BoM (the Aussies) or they will be in the same page.IMO I dont think that NOAA will declare El Nino dead just yet,but they may narrow the timeframe of El nino thru April instead of May.


Cycloneye

I believe so. From now to February 8 there is an interval of ten days. As the Pacific is quickly cooling, depending on the STTS they may even declare "near neutral conditions". To our clients and public over here in Brazil we declared today El Niño fisinished 'cause we do not believe in a rebound. PK's last message is right at the point. One week does not tell a story, but the recent weeks tell. It is cooling fast and the models indicate with great confidence further weakness is almost certain. For that reason we said "bye".

http://www.metsul.com/secoes/visualiza. ... _texto=536

And in the sabe material we warn to the risk of La Niña, an event that concern a lot the agricultural sector over here due to the droughts observed in the past in La Niña years. In 2006 NOAA declared El Niño in October or November I believe, but we were warning since April. As Jim Hughes, we sometimes look to our "final frontier" to understand the Pacific and the climate. Just check the bulletin in the URL mentioned above to see the last graphic presented.
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#54 Postby Jim Hughes » Wed Jan 31, 2007 4:56 pm

P.K. wrote:
If the thresholds for an El Niño are not met at this time the real time condition of the Pacific is not of a warm phase. If the condition RIGHT NOW do not meet the standards of an El Niño and the phase is not cool, what you would call it ? Here are the anomalies for 01/28:

The cooling is ocurring very rapidly. Very soon, maybe still in February, Niño 1+2 will already be in the negative territory. You mention the POAMA model, but if you check it daily and you may be remembered that two months prior to the El Niño declaration by NOAA in 2006 the POAMA model was not indicating a high percentage of a warm phase. Do you remember PK the POAMA indications two weeks ago ? July was near 0.5 and August 0.5. Now it is near zero all over the first half of the year. The model is behind the speed of the cooling and it is running to catch it. Note the first 15 runs (red line) and the trend in the last 15 runs (blue lines):

As a user in this forum said in the last page, El Niño is basically dead and the question now is if a La Lina will develop in the next few months.

One thing we are sure and you can take not of that. The fall period in South America southernmost areas (Southern Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile) may figure among the coldest in many years due to the influence of the very negative signal in the Nino 1+2 region indicated by CFS. The NOAA's CFS model corroborates the idea of an unusual cold autumn in this part of the globe.

Time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but we still believe this 2006/2007 El Niño is gone and that La Niña is a possible scenario in the newxt months.


As I said last September I still think the NOAA called it too early given what they classify as warm ENSO on their website, it is slightly different to the BoM classification. I should point out here I mainly go by the BoM data as it is all updated more often etc.

Take the Nino 3.4 anomalies for instance last September. The first week the +0.8C threshold was met, the week 18/9 to 24/9, at +0.81C over the following two weeks in then dropped to +0.64C. Got to be careful with using a single weeks data for something which evolves over a much longer period than that. Ninos 3 and 4 also dropped a fair bit over that period but as we know these things can fluctuate a fair bit.

Don't worry I agree it is pretty much gone, I've been saying so for a fair few weeks now. Just will take a little while to technically get back to neutral if that makes sense. The averages are starting to fall away pretty quickly now. I believe it may be back to the neutral level by the next BoM update on 21/2.

It is true to say that the cooling has been greater than forecast by the POAMA from looking at it over the last few weeks. It still isn't going to cool ENSO in many of the runs though, and that FSU model isn't either using the BoM criteria although it is meeting the NOAA criteria by the northern hemisphere summer. The ECMWF forecast from earlier in the month looks pretty neutral to the end of the forecast period as are most of the other models. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml


The El Nino had everything going in it's favor last year but it no longer does. The exact opposite could be said about the La Nina for this year. The only thing going against it is where we are at in the solar cycle. This hurt the El Nino a little also. But Cycle 23 has been anything but the norm so I am less confident about the semi-weak solar connection here. Especially since December's huge space weather spike sure helped.
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#55 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 31, 2007 7:21 pm

[img]ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/coupled_model/images/plumes/sst_indices_30_days_20070130_3.gif[/img]

Alexandre,look how the updated POAMA model graphic has changed since you posted the same graphic this morning.Look at the Ensemble Mean line how more down it goes compared with the graphic you posted this morning.

Luis
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#56 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Wed Jan 31, 2007 8:07 pm

Thank You Luis !!!

See the latest run that bring the anomaly down to -1 in Early March. It is the great difference from yesterday that resulted in the overall change.

Estimado Amigo Luis

Mire el comportamiento de la ultima salida del modelo que señalo una caida muy importante de la temperatura ahora para el comienzo del mes de Marzo. Fue el cambio pronunciado que resulto en la condicion mais fria en general del modelo para los proximos meses.
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#57 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Wed Jan 31, 2007 8:27 pm

Take a look at this other data:

Image

That is the reason why I disagreed the conservative position of the BOM bulletin from yesterday.
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#58 Postby Jim Hughes » Thu Feb 01, 2007 9:05 am

MetSul Weather Center wrote:Take a look at this other data:

Image

That is the reason why I disagreed the conservative position of the BOM bulletin from yesterday.


I believe the conservative nature is built around the fear of being wrong. At least with some USA organizations. I always get the feeling that they are like a sports team who play not lose instead of playing to win.

They will come across as always being right on most occassions when one looks over their forecasting record because they are usually always making a call that is already obvious to the community as a whole.

So how could a forecast by let's say next month, about no El Nino anymore for the rest of 2007, be looked upon with any serious forecasting recogniton?


And how could a possible La Nina forecast for 2007, lets say some three months down the road, be anything else either? This isn't really forecasting it's an observation call. These are two different things altogether.
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#59 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 01, 2007 1:02 pm

Meanwhile in the tropical Pacific Ocean, El Niño conditions are weakening as water temperatures have trended towards normal during recent weeks. "Any El Niño-related effects over North America should be minimal during the remainder of the winter season," said Vernon Kousky, research meteorologist at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "A return to neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific is expected this spring."

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2786.htm

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Very interesting wording from NOAA as part of the Febuary Winter Outlook,as they mention how El Nino is now and they expect Neutral conditions in the spring.Now let's wait for the Climate Prediction Center Febuary 8th Update to see in detail what they haved said in the winter outlook.
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#60 Postby Jim Hughes » Fri Feb 02, 2007 8:19 am

The latest clip of 1/23 shows that the warmth is still rapidly being replaced by the cooler anomalies. This extremely fast turn around will be historic if it continues at this pace. We could possibly be looking at weekly negative SST anomalies that support La Nina conditions by months end.

cycloneye wrote:Image
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