TD 07-E,TS Dalila in Eastern Pacific

[cycloneye]

WTPZ42 KNHC 220232
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY DEEP
AT THIS TIME BUT THERE ARE SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED RAINBANDS.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO INDUCING A MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL
WEAKENING COULD BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SYSTEM JUST FORMED
AND THERE IS NOT A GOOD HISTORY OF THE TRACK. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
285/12. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...BUT BECAUSE
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS INDICATED BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.
CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS SLOW AS
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. LETS SEE WHEN WE GET THE FIRST
RUN OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 12.7N 105.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 13.5N 107.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 14.0N 108.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 14.3N 109.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 14.5N 111.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 115.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



It's official TD 7-E!!

[Chacor]

Suggestion to shorten the topic title: "TD info page 2"?

[cycloneye]

[Cyclenall]

That was fast . I'm still not happy about the shear (which the NHC says it from a strong upper level high). That more northern track is something different, but I don't like it much because then it moves into cooler waters .

[CrazyC83]

This one surprised me...I wasn't really following it as it didn't look like much earlier today and I didn't see it developing...

[Cyclenall]

This one surprised me...I wasn't really following it as it didn't look like much earlier today and I didn't see it developing...

It actually looked awesome Saturday morning and then sort of got strange looking by late afternoon.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220845
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007

IT HAS BEEN QUITE A CHALLENGE TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVERNIGHT. USING CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 0546
UTC TRMM PASS...THE CENTER IS ROUGHLY ESTIMATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS
ORGANIZATION STAGE...AND LACKS SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURES. BASED
ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 25 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 11 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
IN A SLOWER MOTION AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. THE TIMING...HOWEVER...OF WHEN THIS NORTHWEST TURN WILL
OCCUR IS WHERE THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS MOST
CLOSELY WITH THE HWRF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...WHICH TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.

A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES AROUND 20-25 KTS OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE...AS A
RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD SLOW
THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS....AND THEN RELAX SOMEWHAT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY 29C AND...BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST...SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUSTAIN THE
CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
ANTICIPATES GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS THEN
LEVELS OFF. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND HWRF
GUIDANCE...BUT IS ABOVE THE GFDL AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...WHICH
TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD SOONER INTO A HIGHER SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 12.8N 106.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 13.2N 107.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 108.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 13.8N 110.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 14.2N 111.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Chacor]

22/1200 UTC 13.0N 106.6W T2.5/2.5 07E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

885
WHXX01 KMIA 221332
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1332 UTC SUN JUL 22 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (EP072007) 20070722 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070722 1200 070723 0000 070723 1200 070724 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 105.7W 13.5N 107.0W 14.1N 107.9W 14.8N 108.4W
BAMD 12.8N 105.7W 13.2N 107.8W 13.3N 109.4W 13.3N 110.7W
BAMM 12.8N 105.7W 13.7N 106.9W 14.3N 107.7W 14.7N 108.3W
LBAR 12.8N 105.7W 13.1N 107.4W 13.7N 109.0W 14.3N 110.7W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070724 1200 070725 1200 070726 1200 070727 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 108.8W 17.6N 110.2W 20.5N 113.6W 22.3N 118.5W
BAMD 13.3N 111.3W 13.8N 111.3W 16.3N 111.8W 19.7N 114.3W
BAMM 15.4N 108.7W 17.6N 110.0W 20.3N 113.6W 22.3N 118.5W
LBAR 14.9N 111.9W 16.2N 114.3W 18.2N 117.4W 21.4N 121.5W
SHIP 51KTS 59KTS 64KTS 59KTS
DSHP 51KTS 59KTS 64KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 105.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 104.6W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 101.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

383
WTPZ42 KNHC 221447
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN-E IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...
REQUIRING A RE-LOCATION. THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DISORGANIZED...WITH
THE CIRCULATION ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...AND
THE CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER BY 20-25 KT OF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT
GENEROUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 30
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HR OR SO. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
ON THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF
THE TURN. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN CALL FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TURN
CLOSER TO 110W...WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
STARTING AT 112W. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT THE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CCON CONSENSUS MODEL.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOT READILY
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS IT MAY BE MASKED BY CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AT HIGHER LEVELS.

LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO
CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR...WHICH AT THE VERY LEAST SHOULD SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER THAT
TIME. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME INTENSIFICATION
DESPITE THE SHEAR...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST A FASTER
DEVELOPMENT RATE AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY AT 96 HR FOLLOWED
BY A WEAKENING TREND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 120
HR. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT LITTLE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR DUE TO THE SHEAR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
NORMAL DEVELOPMENT RATE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 12.8N 105.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 13.2N 107.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 13.7N 108.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.0N 109.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 14.6N 110.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 16.0N 111.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 18.5N 113.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Not looking muy bien.

No luce very good.

[Cyclenall]

There is more convection popping near the center but the shear is tugging on the west side and has been doing so since early Saturday morning. It appears it was alright looking 6 hours ago based of some loops.

Not looking muy bien.

No luce very good.

In english?

[HURAKAN]

Not looking muy bien.

No luce very good.

In english?

No, Spanglish!!!!

[cycloneye]

468
WTPZ42 KNHC 222034
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E IS COMPRISED OF
A LARGE CYCLONIC SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ABUNDANT...BUT
DISORGANIZED...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND IN A LARGE BAND AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM ARE UNCHANGED SINCE THIS
MORNING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE CYCLONE
REMAINS UNDER 20-25 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/7. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HR OR SO. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO FOLLOWED
BY A NORTHWESTWAR MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON
THIS...WITH THE SPREAD DECREASING SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THR GFDL AND THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL NOT READILY
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS IT MAY BE MASKED BY CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AT HIGHER LEVELS.

LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO
CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR...AFTER WHICH THEY FORECAST A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN THE SHEAR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...WITH THE GFDL AND THE HRWF
BOTH FORECASTING A 50 KT INTENSITY IN 24 HR. THIS LOOKS A BIT
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR WHILE THE SHEAR LASTS...A FASTER
DEVELOPMENT RATE FROM 48-96 HR AS THE SHEAR DECREASES...AND A
WEAKENING TREND AFTER 96 HR AS THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT
STRENGTHEN MUCH THROUGH 48 HR DUE TO THE SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 12.9N 107.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 13.2N 108.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 13.8N 109.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 14.3N 110.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 15.1N 111.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

665
WHXX01 KMIA 230043
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC MON JUL 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (EP072007) 20070723 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070723 0000 070723 1200 070724 0000 070724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 107.3W 13.9N 108.5W 14.5N 109.3W 14.9N 109.8W
BAMD 13.1N 107.3W 13.5N 108.9W 13.7N 110.1W 14.0N 110.9W
BAMM 13.1N 107.3W 13.8N 108.6W 14.3N 109.5W 14.7N 110.4W
LBAR 13.1N 107.3W 13.3N 109.0W 13.9N 110.9W 14.4N 112.5W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 39KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 39KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070725 0000 070726 0000 070727 0000 070728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 110.3W 17.6N 111.7W 20.1N 114.7W 22.1N 118.6W
BAMD 14.3N 111.3W 16.0N 111.7W 19.0N 113.8W 22.3N 116.6W
BAMM 15.4N 111.0W 17.0N 112.5W 19.0N 115.5W 21.1N 119.5W
LBAR 14.8N 114.0W 16.1N 117.1W 17.8N 120.8W 20.5N 125.1W
SHIP 49KTS 52KTS 52KTS 47KTS
DSHP 49KTS 52KTS 52KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 107.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 105.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 104.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

743
WTPZ42 KNHC 230241
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. A SMALL
CLOUD SWIRL...WITH MODEST ATTENDANT CONVECTION...IS ROTATING WITHIN
A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB CORRESPOND TO 30 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT THIS ESTIMATE IS A BIT GENEROUS.

WHILE THE CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...A LONGER-TERM REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS 285/7. THE
DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AROUND A
LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND A SLOWER...MORE NORTHWARD TRACK SHOULD DEVELOP. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONE RIGHT OUTLIER...THE GFDN...AND ONE LEFT
OUTLIER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...JUST NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE
MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC UNTIL THE CORE
CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN
FORECASTING THIS SHEAR TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
ASSUMING THE SYSTEM SURVIVES...AND IT SHOULD GIVEN ITS LARGE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...THERE WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS. IF THE TRACK FORECAST IS
CORRECT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS BY DAY
4...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 13.3N 107.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 13.6N 108.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 14.2N 109.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 14.9N 110.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 15.6N 110.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 112.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 22.0N 118.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Aquawind]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230847
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
200 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2007

IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A BANDING FEATURE IS ALSO
TRYING TO FORM...WHICH IS A BIT IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE 25 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY UNDER. TAFB AND SAB
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 2.5 OR 35 KT. I WAS
ORIGINALLY GOING TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE AS A DEPRESSION...BUT THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
35 KT...AND SEVEN-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DALILA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/7. DALILA REMAINS SOUTH OF
A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. AS THE RIDGE AND
TROUGH PROGRESS WESTWARD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONCURS THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN AND DALILA'S
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREAFTER...A SLIGHT ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ALIGNED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE CURRENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE IN 36 TO
48 HOURS...AND DALILA WILL BE IN A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING. BY DAY FOUR...HOWEVER...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...
AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 13.6N 108.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 14.1N 109.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 14.8N 110.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 15.6N 110.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 111.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 120.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 231256
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC MON JUL 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA (EP072007) 20070723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070723 1200 070724 0000 070724 1200 070725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 108.6W 15.5N 109.3W 16.4N 109.9W 17.6N 110.3W
BAMD 14.6N 108.6W 15.2N 109.9W 15.8N 110.9W 16.5N 111.7W
BAMM 14.6N 108.6W 15.4N 109.4W 16.2N 110.0W 17.4N 110.4W
LBAR 14.6N 108.6W 15.5N 110.0W 16.4N 111.5W 17.2N 113.3W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 45KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 45KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070725 1200 070726 1200 070727 1200 070728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 111.1W 21.6N 114.6W 23.2N 119.1W 23.4N 122.9W
BAMD 17.3N 112.4W 19.3N 114.5W 21.6N 117.3W 24.0N 120.4W
BAMM 18.6N 111.1W 21.3N 114.2W 23.2N 118.7W 24.2N 122.6W
LBAR 17.7N 114.9W 19.2N 118.7W 21.0N 123.2W 22.7N 127.6W
SHIP 56KTS 58KTS 52KTS 36KTS
DSHP 56KTS 58KTS 52KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 108.6W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 107.3W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 105.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$