Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Frank P]

Can anyone comment on the MM5FSU45a model... here's the link...

From what I can tell it looks like it actually takes Felix into the BOC/GOM and then moves it north...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

[artist]

my understanding is that is not the superensemble but one that is not reliable.

[Frank P]

thanks I sure hope its not too reliable.. it also shows what looks to be 99l moving toward across cent FLA..

[jhamps10]

thanks I sure hope its not too reliable.. it also shows what looks to be 99l moving toward across cent FLA..

which that also has backup from UKMET. but that's an issue to discuss on the 99L thread.

[Nimbus]

It is building much of its long term track by rotating the steering ridges clockwise. See water vapor loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Unfortunately for the Hondura and the MM5 there has not been any ULL steering element to block Felix from chasing the pacific storm Henriette west.

[Thunder44]

721
WHXX01 KWBC 040638
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0638 UTC TUE SEP 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELIX (AL062007) 20070904 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070904 0600 070904 1800 070905 0600 070905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 81.9W 14.5N 84.9W 14.7N 87.4W 15.0N 89.4W
BAMD 14.3N 81.9W 14.4N 84.5W 14.6N 87.0W 14.8N 89.5W
BAMM 14.3N 81.9W 14.6N 84.6W 14.8N 87.0W 15.2N 89.3W
LBAR 14.3N 81.9W 14.7N 84.7W 15.3N 87.7W 16.1N 90.6W
SHIP 135KTS 138KTS 141KTS 137KTS
DSHP 135KTS 91KTS 48KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070906 0600 070907 0600 070908 0600 070909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 91.5W 15.8N 95.2W 17.2N 98.0W 18.3N 99.8W
BAMD 14.8N 92.0W 14.6N 97.1W 14.7N 101.1W 15.5N 103.9W
BAMM 15.3N 91.6W 15.9N 96.6W 16.9N 100.7W 18.4N 103.8W
LBAR 17.0N 93.5W 19.0N 99.2W 20.4N 104.1W 19.7N 107.6W
SHIP 134KTS 115KTS 101KTS 95KTS
DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 81.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 78.7W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 75.0W
WNDCUR = 135KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 939MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN

[Berwick Bay]

With a Felix landfall in Nicaragua imminent, I must now concede that my prediction for a Yucatan landfall was dead wrong. The NHC did a great job with deciding which models would be most applicable to the Felix forecast and therefore kept the track on its southern orientation right through to landfall. I also give much credit to Derek Ortt's early call for a Nicaragua landfall. At that stage the official track was more in line with Belize (and giving credit to the NHC here, because there were quite a few models taking the storm over the Yucatan), but Derek Ortt said that the likelihood was even further south toward Nicaragua. So credit is definitely in order for his Felix forecast. I must also now say that my Sat post was rather disdainful of the weather community for its insistence on the southern track, and for that I was wrong and also apologize. Great job by Mr. Ortt and the NHC.

[Recurve]

Good post. It's hard for all of us to recognize a trend that doesn't seem likely at first. That GFDL with Dean seemed really possible because of climo, but was clearly wrong with the ridging the other models had. It was tough to believe such a southward track for Felix, but the Euro had the ridge right.
Track forecasting is humbling for pros even.

[Portastorm]

With a Felix landfall in Nicaragua imminent, I must now concede that my prediction for a Yucatan landfall was dead wrong. The NHC did a great job with deciding which models would be most applicable to the Felix forecast and therefore kept the track on its southern orientation right through to landfall. I also give much credit to Derek Ortt's early call for a Nicaragua landfall. At that stage the official track was more in line with Belize (and giving credit to the NHC here, because there were quite a few models taking the storm over the Yucatan), but Derek Ortt said that the likelihood was even further south toward Nicaragua. So credit is definitely in order for his Felix forecast. I must also now say that my Sat post was rather disdainful of the weather community for its insistence on the southern track, and for that I was wrong and also apologize. Great job by Mr. Ortt and the NHC.

BB, you're a good S2K poster and an honorable one. You had a hunch, stuck to it ... and this time it didn't work. Nearly all of us on this board have been there one time or another (actually most of us have been "there" a lot more than that!).

I don't see a need for apologies as you never personally slammed other forecasts. You made your own and argued its merits. No worries!

[wxmann_91]

If people could just stop loading GHCC for 15 min please... I've got some archiving I need to do, and school starts very soon for me. I know it's a weird request, but really, thanks.

[PhillyWX]

With a Felix landfall in Nicaragua imminent, I must now concede that my prediction for a Yucatan landfall was dead wrong. The NHC did a great job with deciding which models would be most applicable to the Felix forecast and therefore kept the track on its southern orientation right through to landfall. I also give much credit to Derek Ortt's early call for a Nicaragua landfall. At that stage the official track was more in line with Belize (and giving credit to the NHC here, because there were quite a few models taking the storm over the Yucatan), but Derek Ortt said that the likelihood was even further south toward Nicaragua. So credit is definitely in order for his Felix forecast. I must also now say that my Sat post was rather disdainful of the weather community for its insistence on the southern track, and for that I was wrong and also apologize. Great job by Mr. Ortt and the NHC.

It's part of the ever-changing learning experience with handling tropical systems. You win some, you lose some but as long as you learn from what happened in the times you erred you can grow and become a more skilled forecaster.

[Stratosphere747]

If people could just stop loading GHCC for 15 min please... I've got some archiving I need to do, and school starts very soon for me. I know it's a weird request, but really, thanks.

No offense 91 -

You have made this request before and I'm not sure why? First of all this is a purely a tropical weather board, and asking everyone to stop viewing the images while a cat 5 is/was making LF is quite selfish.

Second of all - What makes you assume that the GHCC problems are the direct result of folks visiting from S2K?

I'm only addressing you here as you have done with the entire board.

[HouTXmetro]

I think Dean and Felix has taught all of us lessons about to the tropics. I have learned the ULLS really don't affect the track of a sytem. The primary concern is shear.

[fasterdisaster]

I think Dean and Felix has taught all of us lessons about to the tropics. I have learned the ULLS really don't affect the track of a sytem. The primary concern is shear.

Nah, not really, it's just the circumstances with these two storms led to the upper level lows not being able to be in a position where they could affect a storm. If the ULL had been anywhere near where some models suggested this would currently be in the SW Gulf.