Tropical Storm INGRID (ATL): Personal Forecasts

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm 8
Forecast 1#
9-12-2007
3pm pst/6pm est

...Tropical storm forms on the distrabance east of the leeward/windward islands. System has been moving west-northwestward. The center of the system is near 13.4 north/45.5 west...The system appears to have formed a large CDO future through out today. In another burst has just formed over the core of the system. A buoy to the north of the system backs this thinking up, with 25 knot winds. Sab has 2.5/2.5=35 knots...And with banding trying to form this is now a 35 knot tropical storm.


The weakness at near 42 west at 40 north, has cut the subtropical high into two pieces. That is why this system has moved west-northwest to northwest over the last 12 hours. This is forecasted to weaken over the next 12 hours with followed by the subtropical high rebuilding in. So a west to west-northwest track should resume after 6-12 hours. That is why the hurricane models and some of the globals have shifted back westward with this system. The Gfdl shows a west-northwest movement through out the next 72 hours, as it thinks that the ull will cut off at near 35 north/43 west...So still a weakness...Overall I expect this system to stair step through out the next 24-36 hours. Followed by the western ridge reforming over the cyclone. In which should push it more westward inline with most global models. Long range forecasts a trough to form off the eastern sea board...We will not forecast any effects of this yet.

Upper level shear appears to be 8-10 knots over the system...That is expected not to change for the next 6-12 hours. Gfdl shows this becoming a cat2 hurricane in a few days. The trick will be once this system gets to 55 west,,,,the gfs wents to show 25-35 knot shear over the area. So we will watch it closely,,,in forecast only little strengthing after 96 hours.

0 13.4/45.5 35 knots
6 13.6/45.9 40 knots
12 14.5/46.8 50 knots
24 14.8/47.4 55 knots
36 15.1/49.5 60 knots
48 16.1/51.2 65 knots
72 16.5/53.0 75 knots
96 16.8/57.2 80 knots
120 17.0/60.2 75 knots


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Post away

[Coredesat]

S2K Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My Disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.

This is an abbreviated forecast I've been using for systems not threatening land. I'll write full-blown discussions if and when the system threatens land in the next 5 days.

Storm Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (08L)
Time: 2100 UTC 12 September 2007

PSN: 12.6°N 45.6°W FAIR
WIND: 30 kt
PRES: 1006 hPa
MOVE: WNW 10 kt

LLCC is located on E side of convection due to easterly shear. System has established good outflow in all quadrants though convection is still pulsing - indication of a weaker system. Latest T was T2.5 from SAB and T2.0 from TAFB; CI is estimated at 30 kt for now. Models take system to the WNW with only modest intensification due to continued shear. TD should become TS within 12 hours.

12HR FCST: 13.4°N 47.1°W
WIND/PRES: 35 kt/1002 hPa

24HR FCST: 14.2°N 48.7°W
WIND/PRES: 40 kt/1000 hPa

36HR FCST: 15.0°N 50.3°W
WIND/PRES: 45 kt/996 hPa

48HR FCST: 15.7°N 52.0°W
WIND/PRES: 50 kt/994 hPa

72HR FCST: 17.0°N 55.0°W
WIND/PRES: 55 kt/990 hPa

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm 8
4am pst/7am est
forecast 2
9-13-2007

...8 is moving westward across the central Atlantic...

Cimss t numbers are at 2.6t, sab has been 2.5 for the last 3 runs. This afternoons quickscat shown 35 knot winds on the western side that was caught. Make no mistake this is a "sheared tropical storm". Any ways the latest surface maps show the weakness caused by the trough/Ull 40 north/38 west has begain to weaken. In which case the highs are starting to reform to its north, the flow at the surface is now east to west. In that is why the system is now not moving in a stair stepping motion like it was earlier. But more west or west-northwest, the last few 85h Simss,Trim scans of this LLC shown that is most or less moved west to west-northwest. This is a sign that this ridge is forming north of our cyclone. A lower level ridge around 700-850 millibars sits near 10 north/38 west...This could be helping the trough to the north aply shear to the cyclone. To note a "small" ULL at 200-300 millibars should cut off after 12 hours or about mid day today around 27/48 west...This should enhance the shear north of 15 north,,,with some shear remaining over the system. This ULL follows our system through out the next 2 days at least. This is what we call a TUTT ull,,,20 knot shear could be over our system after 3 days time based on shear models. So durning the next 24-36 hours some easing of the shear, as the trough pulls northward. But afterwards expect 15-20 knots of shear over the system.

A trough is sitting off the eastern United states at 4-5 days time...This appears to be deep enough to seriously push any system out to sea. So we have to watch it closely. The Gfdl shows a very weak system because of what we stated above through out the next 3-4 days...More of a west-northwest track should be expected. Most of the hurricane model show a west to west-northwest motion.

Any ways the system appears to be a tropical storm...But we expect it to become a "offical" one by later today. This should be a short lived system if everything plays out like above. We will only forecast out to 4 days. Things could easly change if the ULL does not in fact develop/cuts off...In which is possible if the second "cyclone" does not happen. So its worth watching and this may change.


...Not as we where typing this, the convection is decoupling and fading away to the south of the LLC. Also convection is firing north of the LLC. This could be a sign that the shear is weaking...So we have to watch for a blow up of convection over the LLC.

0 35 knots 13.8/47.4
6 40 knots 14.0/47.8
12 35 knots 14.4/48.5
24 35 knots 14.7/50.2
36 35 knots 15.0/52.4
48 30 knots 15.3/53.5
72 30 knots 15.8/55.5
96 30 knots 16.4/59.2


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm Ingrid
forecast 3#
10pm pst/1am est
9-13-2007


...Ingrid slowly becoming more organized as it moves slightly north of west...

Recon went into Ingrid this afternoon and found us a tropical storm...With surface data as high as 40 even 49 knots...Flight level was only 37 or so knots=38 mph at the surface. Cimss has 2.4=34 knots currently even so the "Cdo" is now formed over the LLC. Because of the above and the improved organizion we are rising the wind to 40 knots.

Shear overall ingrid is around 8-10 knots out of the west. It seems that the first of the effects of the tutt is starting. The "system" or possible cyclone is starting to form northeast of the tropical storm. So we have to watch for the ULL to form, while the weakness cuts of and the main part pulls out to the north. Any ways based on the models this weakness should weaking...While a tutt ULL(300 millibars) forms north of Ingrid with in the next 12-24 hours. This should help to increase the upper level shear over the cyclone. In fact shear north of 15 north is already 15-20 knots. So this should not help the cyclone. The Gfdl 18z takes the cyclone west to west-northwest with no strengthing at all through out the next 3-4 days. Also the Cmc(12z) forecasts a west to west-northwest track. The system or cyclone that develops north of the system should help to form a weakness...In which is why the nhc forecasts more northward. The Hwrf model agree's mostly with the Gfdl but it shows this strengthing to near 45 knot tropical storm over the next 6-12 hours. Most of the models forecast another cyclone to form to the northeast...In which makes enough of a weakness even after the trough pulls out of the north Atlantic, to keep the ridge at the low level form rebuilding fully back. We think this system will strengthing but feel that the lower level wind flow should be number one...So we are south inline with the southern tracking globals. If it stays below 16 north for the next 48 hours..The system may not see shear over 15 knots. But remember a purely tropical cyclone that is a lot worst then your barry's....Any ways the 00z gfs shows our second cyclone to the north moving westward with it. After 60 hours it turns it into a wave,,,We don't think it will open up into a wave. Then back into a low after 72 hours. A trough digs off the east coast after 60-72 hours...Now this has to be watched closely, because if it digs far enough it could pic it up. The latest models have backed off some with how deep, in fact show a ridge forming north of where this system would be after 84-96 hours. So this system could be moving or whats left of it westward or west-northwestward. Any ways I expect 20-25 knot shear over the system at 48-72 hour time frame...In afterwards expect as the ridge reforms to its north that shear levels to drop again.

For the main part I expect this system to move around the south side of the models. With some strengthing to near 45 knots at 6-12 hours. I think it will weaken to a depression after 24 hours,,,and stay one intill 60 hours. Followed by restrengthing at 66-72 hours back to a tropical storm.



0 15.2/48.8 40 knots
6 15.4/49.3 45 knots
12 15.6/49.8 45 knots
24 15.8/50.8 40 knots
36 16.2/53.3 40 knots
48 16.4/54.4 35 knots
72 16.9/57.3 30 knots
96 17.4/59.5 35 knots
120 18.8/61.5 40 knots

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[storms in NC]

Tropical storm Ingrid
forecast 3#
10pm pst/1am est
9-13-2007


...Ingrid slowly becoming more organized as it moves slightly north of west...

Recon went into Ingrid this afternoon and found us a tropical storm...With surface data as high as 40 even 49 knots...Flight level was only 37 or so knots=38 mph at the surface. Cimss has 2.4=34 knots currently even so the "Cdo" is now formed over the LLC. Because of the above and the improved organizion we are rising the wind to 40 knots.

Shear overall ingrid is around 8-10 knots out of the west. It seems that the first of the effects of the tutt is starting. The "system" or possible cyclone is starting to form northeast of the tropical storm. So we have to watch for the ULL to form, while the weakness cuts of and the main part pulls out to the north. Any ways based on the models this weakness should weaking...While a tutt ULL(300 millibars) forms north of Ingrid with in the next 12-24 hours. This should help to increase the upper level shear over the cyclone. In fact shear north of 15 north is already 15-20 knots. So this should not help the cyclone. The Gfdl 18z takes the cyclone west to west-northwest with no strengthing at all through out the next 3-4 days. Also the Cmc(12z) forecasts a west to west-northwest track. The system or cyclone that develops north of the system should help to form a weakness...In which is why the nhc forecasts more northward. The Hwrf model agree's mostly with the Gfdl but it shows this strengthing to near 45 knot tropical storm over the next 6-12 hours. Most of the models forecast another cyclone to form to the northeast...In which makes enough of a weakness even after the trough pulls out of the north Atlantic, to keep the ridge at the low level form rebuilding fully back. We think this system will strengthing but feel that the lower level wind flow should be number one...So we are south inline with the southern tracking globals. If it stays below 16 north for the next 48 hours..The system may not see shear over 15 knots. But remember a purely tropical cyclone that is a lot worst then your barry's....Any ways the 00z gfs shows our second cyclone to the north moving westward with it. After 60 hours it turns it into a wave,,,We don't think it will open up into a wave. Then back into a low after 72 hours. A trough digs off the east coast after 60-72 hours...Now this has to be watched closely, because if it digs far enough it could pic it up. The latest models have backed off some with how deep, in fact show a ridge forming north of where this system would be after 84-96 hours. So this system could be moving or whats left of it westward or west-northwestward. Any ways I expect 20-25 knot shear over the system at 48-72 hour time frame...In afterwards expect as the ridge reforms to its north that shear levels to drop again.

For the main part I expect this system to move around the south side of the models. With some strengthing to near 45 knots at 6-12 hours. I think it will weaken to a depression after 24 hours,,,and stay one intill 60 hours. Followed by restrengthing at 66-72 hours back to a tropical storm.



0 15.2/48.8 40 knots
6 15.4/49.3 45 knots
12 15.6/49.8 45 knots
24 15.8/50.8 40 knots
36 16.2/53.3 40 knots
48 16.4/54.4 35 knots
72 16.9/57.3 30 knots
96 17.4/59.5 35 knots
120 18.8/61.5 40 knots

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nice post. I think you are right on this one. IMO

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm Ingrid
Forecast 4#
9-15-2007
7am pst/10am est


...Tropical storm Ingrid getting strong shear but moving west-northwestward across the central Atlantic...

...System is now half exposed and surface data on the quickscat shows no tropical force winds. Sab is still 2.5. So its kind of a draw on what to do with our system, we will keep it a tropical storm for now, because of the convection holding partly over the center. Based on surface data just in it has 38 knot winds. So it is kepted as a 35 knot tropical storm.

The base of the subtropical high is around 25 north as of 00z this morning. With a weak low pressure area at the surface to the northeast of our system, this system did not develop like the models were forecasting. So more westly flow at the low levels have developed to move our system to the west or west-northwest. At 500 millibars you can see that the "ULL" is directly north of our cyclone. In fact the cyclone is about ready to move into the shear belt/belt were the strongest shear is located between 55-60 west. You can see streams of high clouds hitting and trying to remove the convection from the LLC. At this time the LLC is only partly exposed on the west side, I'm not going to say that it could not become totally exposed over the next day. I'm not even going to say that it could not become a devoid LLC. But I'm going to say that it is not yet dead. Shear forecast from the Gfs, yes not a good model forecast the shear to weaking to around 15-20 knots over our system in 36-48 hours. The trough the models were forecasting a few days ago is now about ready to move off the east coast...It deepens off the east coast for the next 36-48 hours. As its doing so,,,the system or whats left of our system is going to get into 20-22/60 area just north of the leeward islands. The ULL is being forecasted to weaking=weaker shear. On the other hand the gfdl takes it apart in 60-72 hours as it is moving through the highest shear. So its 50/50 chance if it can make it to lower shear. If it can then it can restrengthen into a tropical storm, if not its history. That is all I'm saying, do not ever kill off this kind of system. Gfs 06z agree's with the nhc track...Of course it does, the nhc uses the gfs for their forecasting. But even I have to admit that is a big trough off the east coast. But that is for the long term forecast out past 72-120 hours to worry about. In fact the 12z hurricane models have shifted far south for the next 96 hours. In the system is now moving west or just slightly north of west at this time...There is enough of a ridge to do it to. So we will keep our forecast well south of the nhc...Near just south of the core of the bamm,bams,bamd. Westward or west-northwest through out the next 36-60 hours...Followed by a northwest track after 72 hours north of the leeward islands. We will NOT forecast that this is heading out to see intill the next forecast, because we are not convinced that the high won't build in.


As for strength, expect this system to become a depression by 6 hours. In hold onto it through out 48 hours, followed by a restrengthing to tropical storm by 60-72 hours. Remember its a flip of a coin. In yes the LLC is becoming fully exposed now as we type this part. So the coin might be moving toward the dieing side. But I'm not nuts.

0 16.4/53.5 35 knots
6 16.6/54.2 30 knots
12 16.8/55.1 30 knots
24 17.1/56.5 30 knots
36 17.5/58.5 30 knots
48 18.0/59.8 30 knots
72 19.9/61.2 35 knots possible
96 22.3/62.5 35 knots
120 24.2/64.5 40 knots


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.