INVEST 95L : North of the Azores - Gone from NRL

[Cryomaniac]

Too bad there are no Hurricane Hunters based way up there...

Someone loan them a B52 lol

[CrazyC83]

One thing this might end up as is a classic European windstorm (what they often call "hurricanes" even if they are seldom tropical)

[Cryomaniac]

One thing this might end up as is a classic European windstorm (what they often call "hurricanes" even if they are seldom tropical)

I agree, and I may get some wind from this (unless it does that odd loop that one model suggested). I call them Orcans, which has the same root as the word hurricane anyway.

[senorpepr]

So it has subtropical characteristics- that's a subtropical
storm Noel isn't it???? Even if it weakens later

No... it has SOME subtropical characteristics.


If a storm has a tight low-level circulation, 40 mph sustained winds, and is of tropical origin, but is void of any thunderstorms... does it make it a tropical storm. It does have SOME tropical storm characteristics, but it won't get a name.

[cycloneye]

462
WHXX01 KWBC 070032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC SUN OCT 7 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20071007 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071007 0000 071007 1200 071008 0000 071008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 46.5N 22.8W 49.5N 21.4W 53.0N 20.2W 56.3N 19.3W
BAMD 46.5N 22.8W 49.6N 21.7W 53.3N 21.1W 56.7N 21.1W
BAMM 46.5N 22.8W 49.6N 21.6W 53.3N 20.8W 56.7N 20.6W
LBAR 46.5N 22.8W 50.1N 21.8W 55.0N 22.9W 58.5N 30.4W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071009 0000 071010 0000 071011 0000 071012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 58.6N 17.1W 59.3N 8.8W 58.9N 2.1E 56.2N 15.2E
BAMD 59.1N 18.6W 57.7N 3.4W 50.2N .2E 46.4N 5.2W
BAMM 59.1N 18.7W 59.2N 7.5W 55.7N 3.7E 51.8N 11.1E
LBAR 57.3N 41.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 46.5N LONCUR = 22.8W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 43.9N LONM12 = 24.2W DIRM12 = 25DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 42.1N LONM24 = 25.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1004MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Down from 45 kts to 40kts.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks senorpepr for the explanation. That clears things up
regarding 95l.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I strongly believe that this was at least a subtropical storm. The 85h and its friends shown banding and a tight central core. Quickscat shown strong winds from the core out to 120-140 miles out. Not to far out from the core of the system. Showing it may of been tropical or subtropical. Convection had covered 60-70 percent of the core of the system earlier today.

Yes the water was to cold for tropical development. At least we believed. But as Derek ortt as talked about before you can develop tropical cyclones with much less sst's when you have colder upper levels over the system. So its not impossible. I think it was likely even a tropical storm for a time today, and a subtropical storm starting last night.

But we will have to see what the nhc will do with the system later this season. It is high lat, and this would likely make a huge debate.

I will see if I'm right or wrong.

[Coredesat]

SSTs don't matter if there are some other factors in play, such as upper-level temperatures. Epsilon and Zeta developed in regions of anomalously cold 200 hPa temperatures, which created a favorable temperature gradient.

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 625 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES HAS DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.

[RL3AO]

Jim asks if it is dead.

[Chacor]

I have little doubt that this will be added in post-season. Wouldn't it be scary to have had Noel just form like that, like in 2001?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think the nhc can upgrade this. Its outside of there area and it will need a long debate before being upgraded.

[Chacor]

I don't think the nhc can upgrade this. Its outside of there area and it will need a long debate before being upgraded.

Technically it is outside their area but it didn't stop them from warning on Vince.

[TheEuropean]

SSTs don't matter if there are some other factors in play, such as upper-level temperatures. Epsilon and Zeta developed in regions of anomalously cold 200 hPa temperatures, which created a favorable temperature gradient.

I agree and I think there is no clear boundary for tropical or subtropical development. Many people think the SSTs have to be at least 80F or 27C for tropical development, but in reality there is a gradual scale from tropical via subtropical systems to polar lows. They have all together that they are non-frontal, small lows with convection around a center. In recent years there were some systems with an eye over waters with temperatures 70F over the Mediterranean.

[HURAKAN]

The problem with subtropical systems is that there's not an exact definition for them. Andrea didn't look like your typical subtropical storm, but it was still subtropical.

I have also noticed here in the forum people confusing a subtropical system with a sheared tropical system. There are not the same.

[fci]

Jim asks if it is dead.

Your avatar is creepy.

[TheEuropean]

07/0600 UTC 48.8N 21.7W ST2.5/2.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean

This is a subtropical storm. So why not naming ist?

[Vortex]

[Chacor]

48.8N, now far west of France.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it is, but this has got to be the weirdest tropical cyclone I've seen. Weirder then the south atlantic cyclones. Why because they are over fairly warm water, so formation of this is formed from a very cold upper level air over it...There is likely a very big debate going on over at the nhc right now. In likely will be one for a long time.