INVEST 91L : Caribbean : Discussions & Images

[Frank2]

Let's just pray for rain, from good 'ole rain clouds (non-convective type) - no need to wish for anything "to form and hit Florida"...

P.S. Chilly down here this morning - aside from anything out of the ordinary, this system was probably the caboose of the 2007 hurricane season...

[Sanibel]

The compact dense shape is telegraphing hurricane if it stayed over water.

[Squarethecircle]

It's beginning to lose its shape now, and it is kinda surprising that it's taking so long. Yeah, this might have really done something if it wasn't for land. Hope this doesn't dump too much rain on Honduras and Nicaragua, they've had enough this year what with Felix and all.

[CrazyC83]

Is there any chance this rain could wind up in southern Mexico which is being hammered by catastrophic flooding?

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042213
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. ALTHOUGH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Let's just pray for rain, from good 'ole rain clouds (non-convective type) - no need to wish for anything "to form and hit Florida"...

P.S. Chilly down here this morning - aside from anything out of the ordinary, this system was probably the caboose of the 2007 hurricane season...

lol...I had a bit too much adrenaline there...
It was pretty chilly this morning I must say.

91L has some moisture north of honduras...
but the models say no rain

gonna have to build some more water desalination plants
across the southeast that way the drinking stores can be filled.

[HURAKAN]

This system is just going to make the situation in southeast Mexico more than catastrophic. The Mexican state of Tabasco is 80% flooded at the moment and hundreds of thousands have been evacuated from their flooded homes.

[Squarethecircle]

It's moving back over water now... We may have spoken too soon.

[CrazyC83]

It's moving back over water now... We may have spoken too soon.

Just stay away from southeast Mexico, no matter what the form. A hurricane moving N/NE is better than an unorganized blob moving NW.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Seems like showeres are the increase closer to Jamaica on this Caribbean IR Loop.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 050311
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST SUN NOV 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN HONDURAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...
HOWEVER IT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Typhoon_Willie]

The area between Jamaica and Honduras still seems to be of some interest even though it may be just a surface trough of low pressure. Looks to me that the clouds and showers have increased just a bit.

[Squarethecircle]

It's really disorganized, though. It all depends on where it moves now. If it curves to the north and east, then it could make something, but if it hits Mexico, then it'll die. But that might be bad for the Mexicans as well. So long as the convection remains scattered, however, it's not that likely to develop.

[cycloneye]

91L is now gone from NRL so this thread will be moved to the archieves of 2007 in 2 days.

[Sanibel]

The convection over the west Caribbean has some minor spin, but it is probably a shear boundary at the mid-level.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Are you talking about the circulation that's started at the lower right of this loop?

[Squarethecircle]

No, but that is interesting. This system, however, has been over land far to long to sustain convection; it's almost completely dead now.

[tolakram]

No, but that is interesting. This system, however, has been over land far to long to sustain convection; it's almost completely dead now.

The original 91L is over land but this appears to be a weak LLC with convection firing near the center. I'm not sure how the strength or weakness of the system over land effects this one. Do you?

[Squarethecircle]

I was referring to 91L. Land will not affect this one unless it moves to the west.

[Sanibel]

The convection is piling against the steering current in a fight of climatology wanting to go N and the steering layer having a blocking High to the west. If this persists it could form.