BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

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#41 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:01 pm

The next name is "Yemyin."

The Pakistan Meteorological Department referred to Tropical Cyclone 03B as "Tropical Cyclone Yemyin". However, the official WMO body responsible for tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea, the India Meteorological Department, did not name the storm. Thus, the storm officially has no name and the name "Yemyin" remained unused after the storm.

From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_North ... e-03B_note

See, this is why I stick to tracking ATL storms.
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#42 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:03 pm

I'm not saying it will be like this but here are three reasons to watch this system.

# 1970 Bhola cyclone, killed between 100,000 to 500,000 people in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh)
# 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, killed 138,000 people in the Chittagong region of Bangladesh
# 1999 Orissa cyclone, killed around 10,000 people in the Orissa state of India[3]
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Derek Ortt

#43 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:04 pm

Due to the naming controversy, I propose that the cyclone be referred to as TC9B regardless as to what IMD calls it. We should not give the IMD any legitimacy as they do not deserve any
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:05 pm

:uarrow: Naming those systems in that part of the world are confusing. :roll:
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Re:

#45 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:06 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:
The next name is "Yemyin."

The Pakistan Meteorological Department referred to Tropical Cyclone 03B as "Tropical Cyclone Yemyin". However, the official WMO body responsible for tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea, the India Meteorological Department, did not name the storm. Thus, the storm officially has no name and the name "Yemyin" remained unused after the storm.

From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_North ... e-03B_note

See, this is why I stick to tracking ATL storms.



I agree, I do think the nhc is slow and trends to not upgrade some systems. But they do there job if a system is close to land. In they do a good job, and for that I've got a high level of respect for them.
I think the WMO needs to look into this and give another country the power.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#46 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:07 pm

I don't think this will become "Yemyin" (assuming it gets a name at all). Yemyin was responsible for 1000 deaths, so the name has already stuck.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#47 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:13 pm

The next update should be out soon, the last update time was actually 12 hours ago. T3.0 from PGTW and T2.5 from KNES would suggest this is now a cyclonic storm certainly.

TPIO10 PGTW 112118

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B

B. 11/2030Z

C. 10.2N/3

D. 91.2E/2

E. THREE/MET7

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (11/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

13A/PBO TCB/ANMTN.

ROACH

----

WWIO20 KNES 112200

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 IRNIGHT
.
NOVEMBER 11 2007 2030Z
.
10.3N 91.1E T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS 06B
.
PAST POSITIONS...10.3N 92.0E 11/0830Z VIS/IRDAY
9.8N 92.2E 10/2030Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...DT OF 2.5 BASED ON 5/10 BANDING. MET=2.0.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 12/0400Z.
.
EFFECTIVE 0000 UTC 01 DECEMBER 2007 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN
WILL CHANGE TO CONFORM WITH THAT FOUND IN TPPS10 PGTW. FOR
DETAILS SEE HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/NEWFORMAT.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
GLS
.
NNNN
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Re:

#48 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:13 pm

I agree one hundred percent with Derek. I'm calling in 6B.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#49 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:15 pm

Just as I post that they update it. This data is still 6 hours old however.

BOB 09/2007/03 Dated: 11 November, 2007

Sub: Deep Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal.

The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal And adjoining Andaman Sea has intensified into a deep depression and moved northwestwards. It lay centered at 2330 hours IST of 11th November 2007 over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea near Lat. 10.5 Deg N and Long. 91.5 Deg E, about 200 Kms southwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm or more ) are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition is very rough to high around the system centre. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during the next 48 hours.
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#50 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:18 pm

Best looking 30kt system ever.
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Derek Ortt

#51 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:19 pm

a deep depression with an eye, lol
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#52 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:19 pm

If this system is 30kts, Wilma was a category 2...
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Re:

#53 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:20 pm

RL3AO wrote:Best looking 30kt system ever.



Yeah, the thing has formed a eye on 85h.
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#54 Postby Coredesat » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:26 pm

HURAKAN wrote:The next name is "Yemyin."

The Pakistan Meteorological Department referred to Tropical Cyclone 03B as "Tropical Cyclone Yemyin". However, the official WMO body responsible for tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea, the India Meteorological Department, did not name the storm. Thus, the storm officially has no name and the name "Yemyin" remained unused after the storm.

From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_North ... e-03B_note


Yes, the next name should be Sidr. The IMD's mid-year report called it Yemyin. The article has yet to be updated because we're waiting for confirmation (that is, the IMD actually getting off their butts and naming a system).

It should be noted that IMD doesn't usually issue advisories at night, so don't waste any time waiting for one until tomorrow morning.

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Yeah, the thing has formed a eye on 85h.


It's actually had an eye since this time last night.

EDIT: One last thing - this is TC 06B, Derek, not 09B. ;)
Last edited by Coredesat on Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#55 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:42 pm

I said it had a eye, I said nothing about how long it had it. These indian systems can get strong fast, so this should be a interesting system.
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#56 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:45 pm

The only problem with this system is that it formed very far south, near the Andamans, giving it time to slowly track northward and strengthen.

The only good thing is that the IMD cannot possibly let this slip by if it threatens India as a VSCS.
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Re:

#57 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:51 pm

Chacor wrote:The only problem with this system is that it formed very far south, near the Andamans, giving it time to slowly track northward and strengthen.

The only good thing is that the IMD cannot possibly let this slip by if it threatens India as a VSCS.



I agree, this thing has a lot of time. In if it heads northward and strengthens, this could become something "bad" as powerful system. But its to early to tell how strong and were it will hit. I say based on latest satellite with 85h data, that it is not quite up to what we would call a hurricane. Maybe 55-60 knots one minute, or around 45 knots 10 minute. I would expect a slow strengthen to 70-75 knots over the next 24 hours, with a movement north-northwestward.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#58 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:18 pm

Their website could go offline again just before this thing makes landfall. :P It still might not be named by then.

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I agree, this thing has a lot of time. In if it heads northward and strengthens, this could become something "bad" as powerful system. But its to early to tell how strong and were it will hit. I say based on latest satellite with 85h data, that it is not quite up to what we would call a hurricane. Maybe 55-60 knots one minute, or around 45 knots 10 minute. I would expect a slow strengthen to 70-75 knots over the next 24 hours, with a movement north-northwestward.


You're right.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 NOV 2007 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 10:39:39 N Lon : 91:01:55 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 982.4mb/ 57.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -73.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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Derek Ortt

#59 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:30 pm

have been thinking about the thread title

Why don't we just call this TC9B. I know the official word is always used for naming, but this is not like the WPAC where a good agency (JMA) is issuing the official products. I recommend not using IMD products until they are of the appropriate quality
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#60 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:34 pm

This isn't 9B, it's 6B, but the 9th depression that the IMD has warned on this year.
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