Timor Sea: Invest 90P

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Coredesat

Timor Sea: Invest 90P

#1 Postby Coredesat » Tue Dec 25, 2007 5:58 pm

Another mislabeled invest on NRL, this one is 90P (99S was also mislabeled). It should be 90S, but at any rate, it looks good.

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Timor Sea: Invest 90P

#2 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Dec 25, 2007 6:11 pm

Australia satellite loop from BOM


No advisories from the BOM at this time.

There are currently no tropical cyclones or developing tropical lows.

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Coredesat

#3 Postby Coredesat » Tue Dec 25, 2007 7:46 pm

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.9S 129.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 65 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH POORLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR
THE CENTER. THE DARWIN RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS CONVECTION ROTATING
AROUND THIS DEFINED CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF BATHURST ISLAND. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC INDICATE SLP NEAR 1005-1006 MB. THE
251058Z SSMIS AND RECENT AMSU IMAGES DEPICT CONSOLIDATING BUT WEAK
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT ENHANCED BY
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
BANDING AS WELL AS THE POSITION NEAR LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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#4 Postby Coredesat » Wed Dec 26, 2007 12:58 pm

And in a flash, it was gone!
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2008 Archives

#5 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 28, 2007 5:42 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:35 pm CST Friday 28 December 2007

The monsoon trough lies across the Top End with a weak low located well inland.
The low is expected to move slowly east into the Gulf of Carpentaria during the
weekend, with possible further development thereafter.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next three days
is low.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

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Last edited by Chacor on Wed Jan 09, 2008 7:02 am, edited 3 times in total.
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#6 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:07 am

This is what had been labeled 90P; if and when this thread is archived, it should be merged with the 90P thread.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:51 pm

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Looks pretty nice.
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Re: N Australia: INVEST 90S

#8 Postby Sanibel » Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:13 pm

I think the center is over Arnhem land there. Looks robust. Should emerge and form if it heads over water.
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:57 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 pm CST Sunday 30 December 2007

An active monsoon trough lies across the Top End with a developing low about 100
kilometres southeast of Jabiru. The low is moving slowly southeast, and could
move into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next three days
is estimated to be:
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

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Coredesat

SW Indian: Tropical Depression ELNUS (06R/09S)

#10 Postby Coredesat » Sun Dec 30, 2007 4:43 am

This may or may not be associated with ex-Celina, which meandered around Madagascar after degenerating into a remnant low.

WARNING :
ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER : NR 06 BETWEEN 15S/20S AND 40E/47E
PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
CENTRED AT 06 TU : AROUND OF POINT EIGHTEEN DEGREES DECIMAL FIVE
SOUTH AND FOURTY TWO DEGREES DECIMAL TWO EAST
RPT : 18.5 S/ 42.2 E
MOVEMENT : UNDETERMINATED
SPEED : -
I N T E R E S T E D A R E A :
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER , MORE
ACTIVE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE EXTENDING LOCALLY TO THE
WESTERN MALAGASYCOAST. WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20KT AND MODERATE
SEAS AROUND THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS
UNDER SQUALLS.
COMMENTARY : STATIONARY OF INTENSITY=

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.7S 42.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291515Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATE A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LLCC, WHICH IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EVIDENT ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THIS CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY BEING AIDED
BY AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.


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Last edited by Coredesat on Mon Dec 31, 2007 5:44 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#11 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 30, 2007 5:48 am

Can't find this as 06R anywhere.
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Coredesat

#12 Postby Coredesat » Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:28 am

I found it here. I may have gotten the WMO headers mixed up - I'm not sure what FMMD is. It might be a Madagascar bulletin, in which case this might not officially be a zone perturbée. I'll change the thread title for now until Reunion issues a bulletin.
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#13 Postby Coredesat » Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:32 am

From yesterday, but:

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6S 132.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING CURRENTLY OVER LAND. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AREA HAS OCCURRED NORTH OF THE CENTER AND OVER THE ARAFURA SEA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS BELOW A NARROW
200 MB RIDGE AXIS, IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. IF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVES OVER WATER,
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.
HOWEVER, SINCE THE LLCC IS OVERLAND AND IS CURRENTLY QUASI-
STATIONARY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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#14 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:41 am

FMM* is Madagascar.
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Re: SW Indian: Invest 91S - JTWC: POOR

#15 Postby P.K. » Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:38 am

WTIO30 FMEE 301223

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/6/20072008
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6

2.A POSITION 2007/12/30 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 41.4E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/31 00 UTC: 18.1S/41.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/12/31 12 UTC: 19.0S/42.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/01/01 00 UTC: 19.4S/41.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/01 12 UTC: 19.6S/41.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/01/02 00 UTC: 19.8S/41.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/01/02 12 UTC: 20.4S/40.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0-
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED
SINCE 0200UTC IN THE NORTHEAST OF A THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
LLCC WAS EXPOSED BUT IS VERY RECENTLY UNDER THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING , DRIFTING VERY
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS.
AT 0900Z , IN THE ISLAND OF JUAN DE NOVA, MSLP HAS FALLED -2.7HPA WITHIN
THE LAST 24 HEURES (-1.4 HPA FOR MORANDAVA AND -1.2 HPA FOR EUROPA
ISLAND OVER THE SAME PERIOD).
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW (GOOD TRADE WIND
AND MONSOON FLOWS), WEAK SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LINKED TO THE VICINITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF 25S AND SST NEAR 29 C TO 30 C.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO DEEPEN IT PROGRESSIVELY.
THIS LLCC IS EXPECTED TO STAY QUASI-STATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A TROUGH SHIFTING IN ITS SOUTHWEST.

AT THIS STAGE, SYSTEM INTENSITY DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.

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Re:

#16 Postby Coredesat » Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:46 am

Chacor wrote:FMM* is Madagascar.


Thanks. And since there's a bulletin out, I changed the thread title back. I sure hope this doesn't become a tropical disturbance/depression/etc. today, so I don't have to change this again. ;)
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:11 pm

30/1430 UTC 17.7S 41.9E T2.0/2.0 91S -- South Indian Ocean

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Should be a TC very soon!
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:15 pm

Image

WTXS21 PGTW 301730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 220 NM RADIUS OF 18.3S 41.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 41.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S
42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301107Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED
CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 301459Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS BEING AIDED BY
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311730Z.
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:19 pm

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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:20 pm

BULLETIN DU 30 DECEMBRE A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


ZONE PERTURBEE 06-20072008

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA.
POSITION LE 30 DECEMBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 18.4 SUD / 41.4 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE ET UN DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1475 KM A L'OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST A 5 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19S/42E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 19.6S/41.2E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 20.4S/40.7E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

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