SW Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gene (TC 15P)

[Chacor]

Still officially a TC though.

STORM WARNING 062

This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone GENE [975hPa] centre was located near 27.5 South
174.1 East at 041200 UTC.
Position Good.
Repeat position 27.5S 174.1E at 041200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast about 8 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 90 miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 360 miles of centre in the
southwest semicircle and within 180 miles of centre in the northeast
semicircle.
Forecast position near 28.7S 175.3E at 050000 UTC
and near 28.0S 176.9E at 051200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 056.

Issued at 12:43:56Z on 04-Feb-2008

[Squarethecircle]

Well, we all know that Wellington does usually have a delay (fully ET), and even though it does look fully ET now, it might not to them.

I'm surprised that the JTWC didn't issue a final warning earlier, although they might have still been looking at those fantastic earlier sat images.

[Coredesat]

Actually, Gene still does not look completely extratropical. Organized convection has increased substantially in the last six hours.

1230Z:



0000Z:

[Coredesat]

STORM WARNING 073

This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone GENE [976hPa] centre was located near 28.4 South
175.8 East at 050000 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 28.4S 175.8E at 050000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast about 10 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 90 miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 420 miles of centre in the
southwest semicircle and within 240 miles of centre in the northeast
semicircle.
Forecast position near 29.0S 178.0E at 051200 UTC
and near 29.4S 179.0E at 060000 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 067.

Issued at 00:21:35Z on 05-Feb-2008

[Squarethecircle]

Actually, Gene still does not look completely extratropical. Organized convection has increased substantially in the last six hours.

1230Z:



0000Z:

0_o

Ok, that's bizarre.

[HurricaneRobert]

It actually looks better on visible. Still has an eye.

[Chacor]

Mouth wide open.

[Cyclenall]

I agree, it looks better. I hope it can fight "the good fight" .

[Coredesat]

706
TPPS10 PGTW 050313

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE)

B. 05/0230Z

C. 28.8S

D. 176.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. XT3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/12HRS(04/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN.

[Coredesat]

STORM WARNING 079

This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone GENE [978hPa] centre was located near 28.7 South
176.7 East at 050600 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 28.7S 176.7E at 050600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast about 10 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 90 miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 420 miles of centre in the
southwest semicircle and within 240 miles of centre in the northeast
semicircle.
Forecast position near 29.0S 180.0 at 051800 UTC
and near 29.0S 177.0W at 060600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 073.

Issued at 07:04:33Z on 05-Feb-2008

[Chacor]

STORM WARNING 085

This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone GENE [975hPa] centre was located near 28.2 South
177.4 East at 051200 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 28.2S 177.4E at 051200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving east about 20 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 150 miles of centre in the
southwest semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northeast
semicircle.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 360 miles of centre in the
southwest semicircle and within 240 miles of centre in the northeast
semicircle.
Forecast position near 28.1S 178.3W at 060000 UTC
and near 30.1S 173.1W at 061200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 079.

Issued at 12:32:56Z on 05-Feb-2008

[Squarethecircle]

Still actually looks barely tropical... actual decent convection near the center.

[HurricaneBill]

Could Gene reach New Zealand?

[Coredesat]

Unlikely given that it's moving nearly due east.

[HurricaneRobert]

It's still trying to hang on. It looks like a hurricane cut in half.

[Chacor]

For what it's worth, TCWC Wellington re-strengthened Gene to 65 kts at 00z (18z?). Looks fully XT now.

[Chacor]

STORM WARNING 104

This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and PACIFIC
AT 060600UTC

Over waters south of 25S.
Low 972hPa, former Cyclone GENE, near 30S 175W moving southeast
20kt.
1. Within 60 miles of low: Clockwise 65kt.
2. Outside area 1 and within 180 miles of low: Clockwise 50kt.
3. Outside areas 1 and 2 and within 420 miles of low in sector from
northeast through southeast to northwest: Clockwise 40kt.
4. Outside areas 1 to 3 and within 360 miles of low in northern
quadrant: Clockwise 35kt.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 098.

Issued at 07:02:35Z on 06-Feb-2008