Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[HURAKAN]

Horrible.

[wyq614]

Well, a quasi-stationary status has lowered its SST and weakened it. A wide low-SST area (<27C) has appeared along Ivan's track.

[Crostorm]

Comming back

[Coredesat]

Just like its Atlantic counterpart, Ivan is making a comeback; the inner structure has improved significantly. However, this incarnation of Ivan could turn out to be a significant cyclone once it begins moving.

[HURAKAN]

13/1430 UTC 13.2S 61.0E T3.5/3.5 IVAN -- South Indian Ocean

Coming back.

[Fadil]

could it be a threat to mauritius?

[HURAKAN]

could it be a threat to mauritius?

It's not expected to move south for the moment.

[Squarethecircle]

That was certainly rather... unexpected.

These are some weird storms we're having in the SHEM right now.

[parvez_savage]

Yep its definitely coming back...It is on the warm sea water again....

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better today.

[Squarethecircle]

... And here comes the expected eye on microwave. I applaud thee, Ivan, you have exceeded expectations.



Note, however, that the most recent AMSUB imagery is lacking a southern portion of the eyewall.

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 016
WTIO30 FMEE 131825 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/11/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/13 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 61.0E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 180 SO: 150 NO: 250
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/14 06 UTC: 13.7S/59.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/14 18 UTC: 14.1S/57.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/15 06 UTC: 14.6S/55.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/15 18 UTC: 15.0S/55.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/16 06 UTC: 15.4S/54.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2008/02/16 18 UTC: 16.0S/54.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

13/2030 UTC 13.0S 60.6E T4.0/4.0 IVAN -- South Indian Ocean

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 140019

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/11/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/14 AT 0000 UTC :
13.3S / 60.3E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 180 SO: 150 NO: 250

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/14 12 UTC: 13.8S/58.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/02/15 00 UTC: 14.3S/56.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/02/15 12 UTC: 14.7S/55.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/16 00 UTC: 15.2S/54.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/16 12 UTC: 15.9S/54.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/17 00 UTC: 16.5S/53.5E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-

LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, TRMM 13/2225Z SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION STILL BARELY CONSOLIDATES, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES AN EASTERLY SHEAR.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FLOW.
IT SHOULD THEN KEEP ON REGULARLY INTENSIFYING - QUICKER BEYOND TAU 36H
-WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (WEAKER
EASTERLY SHEAR)
AND WEST OF 60E, FAR FROM THE AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.

ON FRIDAY 15, IVAN IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY HAVE A POLEWARD TURN AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH
-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SPEED MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN DECREASE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF AND A CONSENSUS OF AMERICAN MODELS.

[HurricaneBill]

Possible threat to Madagascar?

[Chacor]

Reupgraded to STS.

246
WTIO30 FMEE 140626

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/14 AT 0600 UTC :
13.6S / 59.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 230 SO: 300 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/14 18 UTC: 14.0S/57.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/02/15 06 UTC: 14.6S/56.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/02/15 18 UTC: 15.0S/54.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/02/16 06 UTC: 15.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/16 18 UTC: 15.8S/53.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/17 06 UTC: 16.7S/53.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5

LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0210Z SHOWS INTENSIFICATION OF WINDS, THEN LIGHT
INTESIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS, LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, SSMI 14/0214Z SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION RE-ORGANIZES VERY
SLOWLY AND THE CENTER OF THE MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED LIGHTLY
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC
(EASTSOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR).

THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FLOW.
IT SHOULD THEN KEEP ON REGULARLY INTENSIFYING - QUICKER BEYOND TAU 36H
-WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (WEAKER
EASTERLY SHEAR)
AND WEST OF 60E, FAR FROM THE AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.

ON FRIDAY 15, IVAN IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY HAVE A POLEWARD TURN AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH
-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SPEED MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN DECREASE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF AND A CONSENSUS OF AMERICAN MODELS.

[Meso]

The EURO has a Madagascar landfall and then skirting down south against the coast.Could cause rainfall problems if it were to materialize

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better.

___________________

WTXS33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.9S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.6S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.2S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.6S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 59.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PGTW AND KNES INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE TC 18S HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND MOVEMENT OVER WATER WITH
HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 747
WTIO30 FMEE 141231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/14 AT 1200 UTC :
13.8S / 58.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOS
ED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/15 00 UTC: 14.5S/56.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/15 12 UTC: 15.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/16 00 UTC: 15.7S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/02/16 12 UTC: 16.1S/53.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/17 00 UTC: 16.5S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/17 12 UTC: 17.0S/52.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T==3.5- AND CI=3.5
LATEST METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW WRAPING CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC WHITH
A
CURVED BAND PATTERN. IT IS STILL POORLY CONSOLIDATED AND THE LLCC IS
AT
SOME MOMENT PARTIALLY EXPOSED (SEE VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 1000Z).
METOP ASCAT DATA AT 0530Z SHOWS, AND THE EDGE OT ITS SWATH, SUGGEST
WEAKER EXTENSION OF WINDS THAN OVER QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0210Z. ESTIMATED
EXTENTION IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE DATA.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
FLOW.
IT SHOULD THEN KEEP ON REGULARLY INTENSIFYING - QUICKER BEYOND TAU
36H
-WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
(WEAKER
EASTERLY SHEAR)
AND WEST OF 60E, FAR FROM THE AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
ECMWF DOESN'T FORECAST ANYMORE THE TRACK MORE SOUTHSOUTHWESWARDS
BEYOND
THE 17. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND A CONSENSUS OF
AMERICAN
MODELS.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]