EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

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srainhoutx
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Re: Re:

#381 Postby srainhoutx » Thu May 29, 2008 7:39 pm

pojo wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
pojo wrote:reason for no recon.... it would take at least 18 hours to get a crew out to the storm.... case in point, made landfall already. Can't dispatch a crew if storm is within 30nm of land and quickly approaching land.


I understand why we have no recon here. But it doesn't change that it's not there to verify intensity.


we can't verify intensity if landfall is going to occur within 12-18 hours and we weren't tasked to fly..

if we were tasked to fly.... if we were following the storm, then yes we could.


Thanks pojo...
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma (01E)=Made Landfall

#382 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu May 29, 2008 7:39 pm

I wish Mexico could buy some hurricane hunter Airplanes for their selfs, but I guest they are to cheap to do that. It would be wonderful, and they could show them selfs off as a first world nation if they could.

From what I've seen from the satellite, and Microwave Satellite data in this thread; it very well could of been a hurricane and the data that was there like the "t" numbers from sab and others were just to slow to catch up to its true strength; Our Friend Derek ortt likes to go by the data, I can understand why, but there is very little of it over the Eastern pacific. I've watched many of cyclones over the last few years(Humberto) that have done just that. When you look at the only real true 'data' over the eastern Pacific, that is the Satellite and Microwave Satellite to tell if a eye wall had formed, and based on that it had. What that tells me that this was a well organized cyclone and was likely 60-65 knots at landfa...Mexico was a very lucky this did not stay off shore for another 6 hours, because if it had done so. We could of seen a cat2 easly at the level of organizion and favorable envirnoment it was under.

See, hurricanes are a interesting Animal, because the experts don't even have a good handle on the true strength of many of them.

I
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Thu May 29, 2008 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma (01E)=Made Landfall

#383 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 29, 2008 7:42 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Mexico was a very lucky this did not stay off shore for another 3-4 hours, because if it had done so. We could of seen a cat2 easly at the level of organizion and favorable envirnoment it was under.



Um...its not even close to Mexico. It affected Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma (01E)=Made Landfall

#384 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu May 29, 2008 7:44 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Mexico was a very lucky this did not stay off shore for another 3-4 hours, because if it had done so. We could of seen a cat2 easly at the level of organizion and favorable envirnoment it was under.



Um...its not even close to Mexico. It affected Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica.


Centeral America. Sorry. I'm not thinking right now.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma (01E)=Made Landfall

#385 Postby HurricaneRobert » Thu May 29, 2008 7:45 pm

You guys must be swamping the NHC website. I can't get to it.

I've never seen this much interest in an East Pacific storm :P
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Re: Re:

#386 Postby Thunder44 » Thu May 29, 2008 7:59 pm

pojo wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
pojo wrote:reason for no recon.... it would take at least 18 hours to get a crew out to the storm.... case in point, made landfall already. Can't dispatch a crew if storm is within 30nm of land and quickly approaching land.


I understand why we have no recon here. But it doesn't change that it's not there to verify intensity.


we can't verify intensity if landfall is going to occur within 12-18 hours and we weren't tasked to fly..

if we were tasked to fly.... if we were following the storm, then yes we could.


I'm not arguing about the reasoning behind no plane being tasked there. I'm just saying, there was nothing there to really to see how strong the winds were.
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Re: Re:

#387 Postby pojo » Thu May 29, 2008 8:07 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
pojo wrote:we can't verify intensity if landfall is going to occur within 12-18 hours and we weren't tasked to fly..

if we were tasked to fly.... if we were following the storm, then yes we could.


I'm not arguing about the reasoning behind no plane being tasked there. I'm just saying, there was nothing there to really to see how strong the winds were.


I see your point.... dvorak, ship and local reports......were the only way to see how strong the winds were.
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#388 Postby NDG » Thu May 29, 2008 9:17 pm

I tell you what, either Alma had a very small core of strong winds or they were estimated to be offshore, because for the center of Alma pass within 45 miles of Managua & within 10 miles of Chinandega (the two closest reporting stations in Nicaragua from Alma) the strongest substained winds they reported were not even TD strength.

The LLC of Alma came in a region of Nicaragua that is fairly flat, but some higher terrains are ahead of it with peaks as high as 7,000 feet, that I am sure will separate the mid level circulation from the surface circulation.

Image
Image
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#389 Postby Ad Novoxium » Thu May 29, 2008 9:22 pm

Can anyone explain why NRL/JTWC is calling for an onland hurricane out of Alma? Also, what're the chances that this gets to the Atlantic and retains the name? We haven't had an EPac-Atl crossover since Cosme/Allison in 89. Sadly, the slow movement (over where Felix hit, no less) makes this a nailbiter. Least it lacks the rain firepower 02's Alma had.
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Re:

#390 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 29, 2008 9:27 pm

Ad Novoxium wrote:Can anyone explain why NRL/JTWC is calling for an onland hurricane out of Alma? Also, what're the chances that this gets to the Atlantic and retains the name? We haven't had an EPac-Atl crossover since Cosme/Allison in 89. Sadly, the slow movement (over where Felix hit, no less) makes this a nailbiter. Least it lacks the rain firepower 02's Alma had.


1. That image is old. Its from this afternoon when the NHC was forecasting it to reach cane status.
2. Very little chance.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma (01E)=Made Landfall

#391 Postby MGC » Thu May 29, 2008 9:29 pm

Thankfully Alma sped up today to 9kts. This was the reason it did not obtain hurricane intensity plus the rainfall won't be as great. Should rain its self out over CA.....MGC
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Re: Re:

#392 Postby Cyclenall » Thu May 29, 2008 9:38 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:show me something quantative that proves this was a hurricane. Nothing handwaiving

The eyewall was not closed and the band did not wrap far enough around the eye. That is why the Dvorak numbers were below hurricane intensity

The eyewall wasn't closed at 11:00 am ET today when the eye was at it's clearest. I looked back at images and hours after that, it appeared it was closed off but more clouded over. That's all I can say about that.

Nothing handwaiving

I never heard that expression before.

I think it made landfall at 50 knots or so.
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Re: EPac: Tropical Storm ALMA 01E Advisories

#393 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 29, 2008 9:42 pm

WTPZ31 KNHC 300241
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALMA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

...ALMA STILL A TROPICAL STORM AS IT HEADS INTO HONDURAS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUE...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS NEAR LATITUDE 13.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...EAST OF
SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR...AND ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...SOUTH OF
TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALMA OR ITS REMNANT
CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER WESTERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH GUATEMALA OR BELIZE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ALMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...13.4 N...87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE


419
WTPZ41 KNHC 300244
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE CENTER OF ALMA HAS CONTINUED INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 350/8
SINCE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA ABOUT EIGHT
HOURS AGO. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN THE
LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES LEADING UP TO SYNOPTIC TIME...AND WE HAVE
SUBSEQUENTLY FOLLOWED THE CENTER INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS BY TRACKING
A SMALL ROTATING BALL OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON VERY LITTLE DATA BUT IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 40 KT.

THE TRACK OF ALMA AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BEND TO THE LEFT OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
AND GULF OF MEXICO. FOLLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CALLS FOR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER TO PERHAPS CLIP THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEFORE MOVING OVER
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. DESPITE THAT POSSIBLE SHORT TIME OVER
WATER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF
SPENDING THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
ALMA SHOULD NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SOMETIME
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY LAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ALMA IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM...IN THE AVAILABLE RECORDS...TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IT ALSO
MADE LANDFALL FARTHER EAST THAN ANY PREVIOUS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WAS THE FIRST TO DO SO ON THE PACIFIC COAST
OF NICARAGUA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 13.4N 87.2W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 30/1200Z 14.9N 87.7W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/0000Z 16.6N 88.7W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 90.1W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

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#394 Postby Chacor » Thu May 29, 2008 9:46 pm

Two interesting bits from the disco:

THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CALLS FOR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER TO PERHAPS CLIP THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEFORE MOVING OVER
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.

ALMA IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM...IN THE AVAILABLE RECORDS...TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IT ALSO
MADE LANDFALL FARTHER EAST THAN ANY PREVIOUS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WAS THE FIRST TO DO SO ON THE PACIFIC COAST
OF NICARAGUA.
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#395 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 29, 2008 9:48 pm

Some cool tidbits there. Now that Nicaragua is out of the way, its time for landfall in Panama.
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Re: EPac: Tropical Storm ALMA 01E Advisories

#396 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 29, 2008 9:48 pm

ALMA IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM...IN THE AVAILABLE RECORDS...TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IT ALSO
MADE LANDFALL FARTHER EAST THAN ANY PREVIOUS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WAS THE FIRST TO DO SO ON THE PACIFIC COAST
OF NICARAGUA.



Is it me, or is that paragraph's last sentence, or maybe the first sentence, somewhat redundant?
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#397 Postby Chacor » Thu May 29, 2008 9:49 pm

Can we keep the discussion to the main thread? And it's just you. Nicaragua doesn't make up the whole of Central America.
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#398 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 29, 2008 9:52 pm

Sorry, but I'll just make a quick comment.

It said first tropical STORM to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America.

The other two sentences said tropical CYCLONE.
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#399 Postby Ad Novoxium » Thu May 29, 2008 9:52 pm

Huh? It was the first tropical storm to make landfall on the Pacific coast? I thought Simone of 68 held that record.
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#400 Postby Chacor » Thu May 29, 2008 10:00 pm

They've fixed the track graphics and gone back to the old font. I like this much better. Also note it is expected to reach water as a remnant before making it back over land.

Image
Last edited by Chacor on Thu May 29, 2008 10:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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