Ex Invest 90L Model Runs

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

Looks like a potential for the Leewards. Any of you guys have an ETA or time frame when it will arrive? (IF it develops and IF it's heading this way....Dominica)

Thanks!

Hi my neighbour from the south i tkink that a possible thread ( should it verifies) virtual near Dominica or Guadeloupe would in 5 days 6 days maybe Thursday Friday with my subjective extrapolation given the speed and the location , but it's very too early to say much more at this early stages, let'see if rotation spinning can occur added to much convection and with concentrated convection, if this happen....we should watch it carefully , but honestly we're far away... should this increased trend amplifies first

[Honeyko]

I'm willing to bet this goes to the north of those tracks simply because if 99l forms its bound to create some sort of weakness and let 90L lift up at least a little.

Agreed, but even the TWO hints that 99L may have a short life regardless. Definately can make things tricky when there are potentially two TC in close proximity, especially with the difference in lattitude.

Given this morning's upward trend, I don't have any expectations of 99L weakening; and, given the conducive upper-atmosphere this year, it should take off all the way now.

[cycloneye]

I dont think what 12z GFS is showing off Africa is 90L as its more west,but it has a low south of the CV islands.

[cycloneye]

Intensity chart from the BAM models.

[RL3AO]

193
WHXX04 KWBC 021722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.5 27.2 260./18.0
6 11.0 28.1 239./ 9.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

SHIP makes it a hurricane:

087
WHXX01 KWBC 021826
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC SAT AUG 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902008) 20080802 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080802 1800 080803 0600 080803 1800 080804 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 29.6W 11.6N 33.6W 12.0N 38.1W 12.6N 43.1W
BAMD 11.5N 29.6W 11.6N 33.7W 11.8N 38.0W 11.8N 42.3W
BAMM 11.5N 29.6W 11.6N 33.9W 11.8N 38.5W 12.1N 43.0W
LBAR 11.5N 29.6W 11.5N 33.5W 12.0N 37.6W 12.3N 41.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080804 1800 080805 1800 080806 1800 080807 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 48.6W 16.4N 59.9W 22.2N 68.5W 27.1N 69.6W
BAMD 11.9N 46.5W 12.3N 54.7W 13.0N 62.0W 13.5N 68.6W
BAMM 12.4N 47.8W 13.3N 57.9W 15.3N 67.5W 17.5N 75.6W
LBAR 12.6N 46.2W 13.8N 53.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 59KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 49KTS 59KTS 66KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 29.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 26.1W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 22.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[KWT]

Looking at the models looks like this real Caribbean threat but then again wonder if things have improved since pre-dolly went through that region.

[cycloneye]

SHIP has moderate shear thru the period,but not strong shear,that may destroy it.SSTS,only get warmer as it goes more west.

Code: Select all

               *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL902008  08/02/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    33    35    41    49    56    59    63    66    70    72
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    33    35    41    49    56    59    63    66    70    72
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    27    27    29    32    37    43    50    55    59    61

SHEAR (KTS)       15    14    13    15    16    10     5    12    12    18    17    23    21
SHEAR DIR         87    85    68    51    52    59   333   264   307   293   306   271   268
SST (C)         27.8  27.9  27.7  27.4  27.3  27.1  27.6  27.8  28.1  28.3  28.2  27.7  28.2
POT. INT. (KT)   137   139   137   133   132   130   136   139   143   146   144   136   143
ADJ. POT. INT.   145   149   146   143   141   138   147   152   155   157   151   139   144
200 MB T (C)   -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     9    10    11    11    11    11    12    12    13
700-500 MB RH     58    56    56    49    44    43    40    44    49    52    53    50    47
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    19    30    27    27    18     3    -6   -13    -3    -6     5   -12   -10
200 MB DIV        27    42    33     8    11   -22     1    12    22    19     4   -10     0
LAND (KM)       1359  1583  1747  1676  1638  1275   973   777   436   377   298   126    71
LAT (DEG N)     11.5  11.6  11.6  11.7  11.8  12.1  12.4  12.6  13.3  14.1  15.3  16.5  17.5
LONG(DEG W)     29.6  31.8  33.9  36.2  38.5  43.0  47.8  52.8  57.9  62.8  67.5  71.7  75.6
STM SPEED (KT)    19    21    22    23    23    23    24    25    25    24    22    20    19
HEAT CONTENT      17    15    15    14    13    12    33    44    55    54    62    49    74

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17      CX,CY: -16/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  529  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  15.3 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  91.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  11.  18.  24.  29.  34.  37.  39.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -6.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   3.   5.   7.  13.  22.  30.  36.  41.  45.  48.  50.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   5.   8.  10.  16.  24.  31.  34.  38.  41.  45.  47.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008     INVEST 08/02/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  14.6 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  24.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 119.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  66.2 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  11.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  14.8 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    24% is   1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    14% is   1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902008     INVEST 08/02/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY 

[fasterdisaster]

Looking at the models looks like this real Caribbean threat but then again wonder if things have improved since pre-dolly went through that region.

Doubt it, as it's been more than a week and it was a very pathetic system at that time. SSTs should be fully normal when, if it does, it gets to the Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

Looking at the models looks like this real Caribbean threat but then again wonder if things have improved since pre-dolly went through that region.

Doubt it, as it's been more than a week and it was a very pathetic system at that time. SSTs should be fully normal when, if it does, it gets to the Caribbean.

Shear has weakened considerably over the Eastern Caribbean. Still moderate shear over Central and Wester Caribean.

[blp]

Still not seeing much model support from the Globals. The GFDL and HWRF don't even have it lasting more than 6 hours. We should have an idea in the next quickscat if this has anything working down to the surface. Let see if this can stay together into the night. That SAL surge is coming fast....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=006hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... hour=006hr

[cycloneye]

[Mecklenburg]

i think this shall develop a closed circulation later on today....

[cycloneye]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

90L looks to want to move rapidly. The islands should
watch it. Intensification, wait and see.

Tropics are getting very active, with this many invests
I wouldn´t be surprised to see 20+ named storms this season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

90L looks to want to move rapidly. The islands should
watch it. Intensification, wait and see.

Tropics are getting very active, with this many invests
I wouldn´t be surprised to see 20+ named storms this season.

I would because we have only had 20+ named storm seasons twice in 150 years. Those where 1933, 2005.

[expat2carib]

Looks like a potential for the Leewards. Any of you guys have an ETA or time frame when it will arrive? (IF it develops and IF it's heading this way....Dominica)

Thanks!

Hi my neighbour from the south i tkink that a possible thread ( should it verifies) virtual near Dominica or Guadeloupe would in 5 days 6 days maybe Thursday Friday with my subjective extrapolation given the speed and the location , but it's very too early to say much more at this early stages, let'see if rotation spinning can occur added to much convection and with concentrated convection, if this happen....we should watch it carefully , but honestly we're far away... should this increased trend amplifies first

Thanks!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

90L looks to want to move rapidly. The islands should
watch it. Intensification, wait and see.

Tropics are getting very active, with this many invests
I wouldn´t be surprised to see 20+ named storms this season.

I would because we have only had 20+ named storm seasons twice in 150 years. Those where 1933, 2005.

I highly doubt that statistic of 20+ Named Storm Seasons occuring only twice in 150 years- there had to
be many undetected storms during the pre-satellite eras- meaning that there have likely been
more than 6-7 20+ named storm seasons in the past 150 years and that is a conservative
estimate.

In any case, the Caribbean islands should watch this very closely.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 030105
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0105 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902008) 20080803 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080803 0000 080803 1200 080804 0000 080804 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 32.0W 12.0N 36.2W 12.8N 40.8W 13.7N 45.9W
BAMD 11.5N 32.0W 11.8N 36.3W 12.1N 40.6W 12.2N 44.8W
BAMM 11.5N 32.0W 11.8N 36.5W 12.3N 41.1W 12.8N 45.6W
LBAR 11.5N 32.0W 11.8N 36.2W 12.3N 40.5W 12.5N 45.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080805 0000 080806 0000 080807 0000 080808 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 51.3W 18.8N 61.9W 24.8N 67.5W 28.0N 65.8W
BAMD 12.3N 48.9W 13.2N 57.0W 14.0N 64.2W 14.6N 70.8W
BAMM 13.1N 50.4W 14.5N 60.4W 17.0N 69.5W 19.4N 76.7W
LBAR 13.0N 49.5W 13.9N 56.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 63KTS 70KTS 75KTS
DSHP 50KTS 63KTS 70KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 27.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 24.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$