ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

91L has to be ventilating upstairs pretty good now to maintain that convergence line without any external (i.e., frontal) assistance.....

Provided it maintains overnight, I'd say we'll see a definitive center by morning. If so, that would put the storm ahead of Alicia, development-wise.

From looking at that radar alone, I would have to say the next advisory might have this as a TD even before the RECON goes out there today.

That proves nothing what so ever. That is likely a midlevel cirulation. No LLC has been found or shown by any data yet.

[americanrebel]

91L has to be ventilating upstairs pretty good now to maintain that convergence line without any external (i.e., frontal) assistance.....

Provided it maintains overnight, I'd say we'll see a definitive center by morning. If so, that would put the storm ahead of Alicia, development-wise.

From looking at that radar alone, I would have to say the next advisory might have this as a TD even before the RECON goes out there today.

That proves nothing what so ever. That is likely a midlevel cirulation. No LLC has been found or shown by any data yet.

I've seen worse called TDs so there is a good possiblity that this will be called a TD, and by the 5pm this will be TS Eduardo.

[americanrebel]

[quote="physicx07"]I was wondering that too. I don't ever remember seeing any journal articles, and it's pretty rare that an outflow interacts with a system that has not yet developed (or even developed for that matter).

I don't believe that the convection moving offshore will reach the storm in the same form that it is now. But I can't totally see why not, it's not like the water is suddenly 50F offshore to stabilize things. It's just that it doesn't look like a derecho, or something that would last that long. Basically I just think odds are, the huge convection wouldn't last long enough to get down there. Still...would be interesting to see and maybe it could.

I was wondering if the outflow boundary could make it down there. If the outflow did, I don't think it would 'spin up' the system, but may enhance convection which wouldn't hurt.

I really could see this reaching the GoM the way it is right now, and possibly stronger. If it ends up in front of 91L, I could definetely see this causing the storm to get even bigger and stronger.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

West wind as far north as 29.1 north. That is not good for this thing having a LLC down near 28 north. So it is quite close to the coast. I've also seen systems with a upper level convection like this be upgraded to tropical depressions and even tropical storms, but with no LLC=no cyclone.

No east wind still.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42364

East-southeast. But this is .2 or 12 miles north. So very very small indeed.

[physicx07]

I'm actually hoping it does make it cuz that would be way interesting to see. But it's a tall order to say that it's going to affect it in a constructive way since at this point there doesn't even seem to be a closed low. Even if it were closed, I can't quite imagine what it would do. I want to see it make it there so bad now just to see.

I really could see this reaching the GoM the way it is right now, and possibly stronger. If it ends up in front of 91L, I could definetely see this causing the storm to get even bigger and stronger.

[americanrebel]

And with 82 degree water, this thing could explode just like Humberto did last year, so I don't think the NHC will let this thing suprise them like Humberto did last year. This is pretty much what Humberto looked like before he decided to explode and set the record for the fastest strengthening system in recorded history at least in the Atlantic. So with a well defined MLC and possibly with the system intensifying, I will not be surprised at all if this system is designated a TD on the next advisory, even if it is a case of CYA.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

29.19/88.12
WNW 290 deg
11.7 knots

29.3/88.5
ESE 110 deg

After thinking about it for a few minutes, I believe it "could" have a weak super small LLC of about 12-15 nmi wide. Now I don't think the nhc should upgrade it based on it as of this moment. I feel they should see it become better organized. I say give this 24 hours.

. Edit I just found I maybe wrong about this. But anyways we will just have to wait.

[Honeyko]

Katrina-as-a-not-yet-TD east of Miami had a similar look (with mid-level circ), except flipped vertically (her "tail" ran southwest). When the convergence line updrafting became sufficiently intense, an eddy whorl formed around the top end of it, and blammo! -- instant MLC>LLC step-down manifestation.

==//==

Southwestward movement now apparent, @ 3:30CST

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm thinking it could be a surface trough alined southwest to northeast. I believe that the "LLC" could form close to 28.8/88.5 or around there.

I believe the surface trough should develop a LLC later today. Then the nhc will do their 12 hour wait they normally do.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still no East winds at the databuoys North of the center.

Pressures still falling in the area, but not enough yet to close a circulation.

[Ed Mahmoud]

29.19/88.12
WNW 290 deg
11.7 knots

29.3/88.5
ESE 110 deg

After thinking about it for a few minutes, I believe it "could" have a weak super small LLC of about 12-15 nmi wide. Now I don't think the nhc should upgrade it based on it as of this moment. I feel they should see it become better organized. I say give this 24 hours.

. Edit I just found I maybe wrong about this. But anyways we will just have to wait.

Is one of those Ram Powell offshore platform? Almoston top of a NOAA buoy, with a different wind direction much of the day. Either a tiny LLC or bad data.

[Nimbus]

Coast guard sector buoy near Mobile saw a wind shift from SW to ESE this morning about 3AM

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=MCGA1

There are some pressure drops at several of the buoys down to 1011 MB or so.

Based on on those scant few observations I would say we have a fairly broad area of surface low pressure. Most of the west coast Florida buoys now have winds out of the east so the front has cut off at the surface.

[coreyl]

Is this system showing signs of developing?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is this system showing signs of developing?

Very slight. Broad surface low maybe developing, but it is at least another 24+ hours from td.

[Honeyko]

Is this system showing signs of developing?

Yes. Rapidly, IMO. Winds were onshore, out of the southwest, in the Florida panhandle only about six hours ago. Now they're out of the east. Look at that radar presentation. That line, almost supercellular in nature now and expanding in aerial coverage, is really hoovering it up.

The only impediment appears to be a spot of mid-level northerly shear.

but it is at least another 24+ hours from td.

Why so conservatice? Given the easterly winds now to the north, and the persistence of the increasingly semi-circular convection, I'd expect a surface circulation to be forming already.

[KWT]

NHC wouldn't upgrade even if it does appear there is a small circulation, they may as well wait for recon to confirm everything as it'll be in there before too long.

Still looking compact and still looks like its going to form just a matter of when it develops that LLC. when it does this will probably be upgraded.

[physicx07]

I wish 42040 would update...just south of there. No update in a couple hours.

Coast guard sector buoy near Mobile saw a wind shift from SW to ESE this morning about 3AM

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=MCGA1

There are some pressure drops at several of the buoys down to 1011 MB or so.

Based on on those scant few observations I would say we have a fairly broad area of surface low pressure. Most of the west coast Florida buoys now have winds out of the east so the front has cut off at the surface.

[physicx07]

Diurnal land/sea breeze? Currently land breeze perhaps now that it's near dawn. I'd like to see more surface ob data for a couple hours first, personally. I wouldn't be shocked though.

Is this system showing signs of developing?

Yes. Rapidly, IMO. Winds were onshore, out of the southwest, in the Florida panhandle only about six hours ago. Now they're out of the east. Look at that radar presentation. That line, almost supercellular in nature now and expanding in aerial coverage, is really hoovering it up.

The only impediment appears to be a spot of mid-level northerly shear.

[Honeyko]

Diurnal land/sea breeze? Currently land breeze perhaps now that it's near dawn. I'd like to see more surface ob data for a couple hours first, personally.

There's also the buoys not near land.