Ex Invest 90L Model Runs

[Gustywind]

Looks like a potential for the Leewards. Any of you guys have an ETA or time frame when it will arrive? (IF it develops and IF it's heading this way....Dominica)

Thanks!

Hi my neighbour from the south i tkink that a possible thread ( should it verifies) virtual near Dominica or Guadeloupe would in 5 days 6 days maybe Thursday Friday with my subjective extrapolation given the speed and the location , but it's very too early to say much more at this early stages, let'see if rotation spinning can occur added to much convection and with concentrated convection, if this happen....we should watch it carefully , but honestly we're far away... should this increased trend amplifies first

Thanks!!

No problem my friend you have anothers islanders very interresting like me : Huc, Cycloneye CaribePr, Fego and many others they can help you too if you have any questions about this.....Stay safe

[Gustywind]

Hummm racing straight west hope it's a joke all models are indicating since this morning something on the East carib or the islands and with cane 1 status fish (% pretty low) or not we should continue to watch it in case of.... in spite of the fact that we're a little far away from a real THREAD, time will tell

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

         *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL902008  08/03/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    32    34    41    50    57    63    66    70    74    75
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    32    34    41    50    57    63    66    70    74    73
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    27    28    30    34    40    46    52    56    59    67

SHEAR (KTS)       14    10    14    16    16     7     4    17    14    23    15    19    19
SHEAR DIR         93    68    43    45    47    11   284   290   295   312   293   288   258
SST (C)         27.9  27.6  27.4  27.2  27.0  27.3  27.6  27.8  28.2  28.4  28.0  28.3  28.8
POT. INT. (KT)   139   136   133   131   128   132   136   139   144   147   140   144   151
ADJ. POT. INT.   150   145   142   139   136   140   147   150   155   156   144   144   148
200 MB T (C)   -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     9     9    10    11    11    12    11    12    12    13
700-500 MB RH     58    56    51    48    48    44    39    47    48    52    47    48    45
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    35    31    30    21     8     0   -16   -18   -16   -18   -29   -34   -41
200 MB DIV        42    36     9     9    -3   -15     0    31     5     2   -15    -7   -13
LAND (KM)       1611  1737  1678  1625  1441  1154   912   673   416   276   148     0    50
LAT (DEG N)     11.5  11.7  11.8  12.1  12.3  12.8  13.1  13.6  14.5  15.6  17.0  18.2  19.4
LONG(DEG W)     32.0  34.3  36.5  38.8  41.1  45.6  50.4  55.5  60.4  65.2  69.5  73.4  76.7
STM SPEED (KT)    22    22    22    23    23    23    24    25    24    23    21    18    16
HEAT CONTENT      16    15    13    13    14    21    34    45    64    59    44    39    83

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19      CX,CY: -18/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  494  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  15.5 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  38.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   5.  11.  18.  23.  29.  33.  36.  39.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   3.   1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.   9.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   4.   6.   8.  16.  25.  32.  38.  42.  46.  50.  53.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   4.   7.   9.  16.  25.  32.  38.  41.  45.  49.  50.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008     INVEST 08/03/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  14.0 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  18.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 117.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.0 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  13.2 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  14.2 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    22% is   1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    14% is   1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902008     INVEST 08/03/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY       

[cycloneye]

[expat2carib]

No problem my friend you have anothers islanders very interresting like me : Huc, Cycloneye CaribePr, Fego and many others they can help you too if you have any questions about this.....Stay safe

Thanks! I will use all information as it's much needed here in Dominica.

To give an example.... Last year when Dean was approaching I knew it for 4 days. I was warning everybody here in the little fishing village of Scotts Head that a cane was coming. (Scotts Head is on the border between the Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea and as well the border between the Windwards and Leewards. Spooky weather sometimes..... even that it's often officially only a "wave")

Nobody reacted

They only reacted when I was pulling my boat up to higher land and tied 2 heavy concrete anchors on it to keep it from flying.

Then they started moving and boats were pulled on land. They had no time to get the fishing pots out though (They lost about 300 of them )

Still no official warning from the authorities here..........

Because of S2K I already had my supplies and actually was the only one (BTW I shared them)

I was happy that nobody did get hurt like with David. It could have been serious though. Lots of fisherman only have their shacks on the beach and they sleep in it. After the drink their daily portion of rum not even an approaching hurricane will wake them and they probably had a bad chance of getting out.

That's where S2K makes a difference as I was informed and finally could convince them.

Now everybody ask me daily if bad weather is approaching....so I became more or less the NHC of Scotts Head They take it serious now.

Yeah...... just a reflection.....BUT

[cycloneye]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[blp]

The graphic seems odd. How can the BAMS be recurving while the BAMD is heading west. The BAMM makes sense but the other two seem mixed up. A stronger system would tend to head further North or at least that is what I see.

[Gustywind]

No problem my friend you have anothers islanders very interresting like me : Huc, Cycloneye CaribePr, Fego and many others they can help you too if you have any questions about this.....Stay safe

Thanks! I will use all information as it's much needed here in Dominica.

To give an example.... Last year when Dean was approaching I knew it for 4 days. I was warning everybody here in the little fishing village of Scotts Head that a cane was coming. (Scotts Head is on the border between the Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea and as well the border between the Windwards and Leewards. Spooky weather sometimes..... even that it's often officially only a "wave")

Nobody reacted

They only reacted when I was pulling my boat up to higher land and tied 2 heavy concrete anchors on it to keep it from flying.

Then they started moving and boats were pulled on land. They had no time to get the fishing pots out though (They lost about 300 of them )

Still no official warning from the authorities here..........

Because of S2K I already had my supplies and actually was the only one (BTW I shared them)

I was happy that nobody did get hurt like with David. It could have been serious though. Lots of fisherman only have their shacks on the beach and they sleep in it. After the drink their daily portion of rum not even an approaching hurricane will wake them and they probably had a bad chance of getting out.

That's where S2K makes a difference as I was informed and finally could convince them.

Now everybody ask me daily if bad weather is approaching....so I became more or less the NHC of Scotts Head They take it serious now.

Yeah...... just a reflection.....BUT

Tkanks for the info pretty interresting, so be welcomed here if this board can help you in terms of safety and much more . But sometimes here in Guadeloupe most of the fisherman are thinking like that, the reference is HUGO in all the heads, that's a wrong attitude, we should be carefull on that especially the fisherman, hope that the recents canes (Lenny and Dean)put some clearence on theirs way of protect, time will tell before the next cane....

[stormchazer]

The graphic seems odd. How can the BAMS be recurving while the BAMD is heading west. The BAMM makes sense but the other two seem mixed up. A stronger system would tend to head further North or at least that is what I see.

Not if the weaker low level flow is recurving north as it appears to be right now. Though stronger systems tend to want to go poleward, it is still a matter of the steering currents in the various level of the atmosphere that dictate the movement of tropical systems.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031128
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS VERY POORLY
ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

Wrong thread go to :http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102241&hilit=
Here is posting only models graphics no TWO or TWD if i'm not wrong

[Mecklenburg]

what are the chances of regeneration?

[curtadams]

Chances of regeneration are slim IMO. None of the models regenerate over the next 6 days - not even the CMC.

[Mecklenburg]

Chances of regeneration are slim IMO. None of the models regenerate over the next 6 days - not even the CMC.

that's too bad