WPAC: Tropical Depression (JTWC: TD 14W) East of Luzon

[Tampa_God]

Infra: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-ir2.html
Water Vapor: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-wv.html

Poorly organized at the moment, but conditions seem to becoming favorable for further development.

[beaufort12]

thanks tampa for creating the thread. hadn't bothered to check the WPAC outlook and suprise, look what we have. looks like conditions are pretty favorable. believe this is a bit further south than Nuri.

[Chacor]

452
TPPN10 PGTW 250307

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (E OF PHILLIPINES)

B. 25/0230Z

C. 13.1N

D. 129.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS (25/0230Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

SMITH

[Chacor]

Now poor.

ABPW10 PGTW 250130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/250130Z-250600ZAUG2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8N 129.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ALSO EVIDENT IN A 242104Z QUIKSCAT PASS. DESPITE POOR ORGANIZA-
TION OF THE LLCC, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD
DIVERGENCE OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVELS MAY INDUCE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS WEAK AND
JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[Typhoon Hunter]

98W is indeed looking very nice today and conditions are looking more favourable in the SCS than they were last week shear wise, should it develop and head there. One for the Philippines to keep a close eye on!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Up to FAIR now from JTWC. Some interesting use of the English language here!

ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZAUG2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N
129.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST
OF MANILA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE CENTRALIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FURTHER
INTEROGATION OF METSAT IMAGERY, COMBINED WITH A 252254Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS, STILL INDICATE TWO AREAS OF DISTINCT CYCLONIC
TURNING, BUT WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WESTERN-MOST VORTICY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY
DIFFLUENCE AND GENERALLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

[HURAKAN]

Lets hope they follow the Geneva Protocol!!!

[Typhoon Hunter]

TCFA just released. Watch out the Philippines.

WTPN21 PGTW 260100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 126.7E TO 18.2N 124.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 260030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
129.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST
OF MANILA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252143Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS
THE LLCC AND INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY SHOW A DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
OF 3 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE AND GEN-
ERALLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO ENHANCED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270100Z.
//

PAGASA have also upgraded this to TD Lawin.

[Chacor]

As of 06z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 15N 126E NW 10 KT.

[wyq614]

Upgraded to 14W.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 16.4N 124.5E POOR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 271500UTC 18.2N 122.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RL3AO]

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 125.3E

[senorpepr]

Lets hope they follow the Geneva Protocol!!!

It took me a while to figure out the big deal. I've seen that phrase used many times in our bulletins.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 17.6N 123.8E POOR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 19.4N 122.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 20N 122E NW SLOWLY.