ATL: IKE Discussion

[superfly]

Houston should be fine as long as it's not a cat4/5 direct hit to the west. Surge will not be a problem as Houston is well inland and very high. Winds will create power outages but should not cause any significant structural damage unless it's a cat4/5 direct hit.

Skyscrapers in Ft. Lauderdale had their windows blown out from sustained borderline cat 1/2 winds in Wilma. I'd hate to see the result of Houston's dealing with even marginal cat 3 winds.

Windows blown out, sure. Significant structural damage, no. I'm not saying there won't be any damage, that would be silly. It simply won't be the disaster some people are currently making it out to be. Now if it hits as a cat 4 directly to the west of Houston, that may be a different story.

[Stormcenter]

Why are you all looking at satellite images to surmise motion when we've been getting NOAA jet eye penetrations every 30 minutes?

002930 2443N 08622W 7185 02413 9425
010500 2444N 08626W 7231 02350 9416
013830 2446N 08628W 7187 02398 9405

I guess everyone else knows, but is that NW or WNW?

The last 2 sets would be NW if it continues.

If I had a vote it would be for wnw.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[latemodel25]

can anyone provide a link to realtime steering currents. thanks..

[CronkPSU]

Derek's newest forecast is not good, not good at all for Houston, I hope people have taken this storm seriously

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103143

[Ixolib]

Skyscrapers in Ft. Lauderdale had their windows blown out from sustained borderline cat 1/2 winds in Wilma. I'd hate to see the result of Houston's dealing with even marginal cat 3 winds.

Fortunately, though, the damage was superficial - not structural. Quick and easy to fix. Looks bad - and would BE bad if you get sliced by a piece of falling glass.

Generally speaking, structures "closer to the ground" do just fine in most cases, even in cat 3/4 winds. Sure, they take a hit with the wind, but for the most part, they remain structurally sound. Again, quick and easy to fix. This, of course, is not including tornados and mini-vortices. With those, all bets are off!!

But surge is a whole different beast. Not quick to fix, not easy to fix, renders most structures it enters to be inhabitable, and often times, condemed.

While Wilma did her deed, much of her damage was not to a point where it rendered dwellings "structurally" impaired because her impact was primarily wind only. If surge had been an issue with Wilma, she'd still be in the news today!!!

Hide from the wind, but run from the water...

[WxGuy1]

that's wnw.
940.5 and still only a 96kt FL wind. Ike's still got some organizing to do.

That's quite a testament to Ike's size. 940.5 mb is pretty intense, so you know it must be spread out abnormally (i.e. a very large envelope) if it is only creating 85-90 kt sfc winds. Of course, the double eyewall structure is weakening the most intense pressure gradient that's usually located in the eyewall region, but it's still something.

[baitism]

The last IR frame kinda looks like the inner eyewall is eroding and the outer one is developing colder cloud tops. I could be wrong though.

[bob rulz]

What is wrong with these local officials in Texas lowballing all these forecasts???

Methinks they are doing the evacs in stages to avoid the folks on the coast being trapped on the roads...look for wider evacs in the morning...we are reaping the benefits of better forcasts with Ike

they just said on local news that it is too late to evac Galveston. Only west end that doesn't have a sea wall.

That's ridiculous. It is definitely NOT too late to evacuate Galveston.

[AL Chili Pepper]

The last IR frame kinda looks like the inner eyewall is eroding and the outer one is developing colder cloud tops. I could be wrong though.

That's my line of thinking too.

Here's your link latemodel.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek said that the outter eye wall is a 100 miles out from the inner eye. Thats going to be one big eye.

[superfly]

26N, 91W will be a key benchmark. If it goes over or south of 26N when it passes 91W, I think Ike will landfall near Matagorda. If it goes north of 26N, Galv/Hous could be the bullseye.

[Sabanic]

Derek's newest forecast is not good, not good at all for Houston, I hope people have taken this storm seriously

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103143

That would also be very bad for upper TX, and SW/LA. VERY BAD!!

[jaxfladude]

Prayers for all in Ike past/present/future path...

[curtadams]

I expect the strengthening should stop and reverse (temporarily) relatively soon. The strengthening depends on that inner wall but it's living on borrowed time. It should start fragmenting relatively soon and the pressure will go up. Once the inner wall is gone it will resume strengthening again. Fractured walls can really drain the strength of a storm - Rita started an ERC in the gulf and never got her walls intact afterwards. She pretty much lost pressure the whole time, even with powerful convection.

Ike's winds are very low for the pressure because a) it's huge and b) it's going through an ERC. Things like this have happened before. Long ago, they used to use pressure to rank hurricanes but one time there was a hurricane with something like 940 pressure and barely hurricane winds. After that they switched to ranking on wind.

[JenBayles]

I went to the HEB on Hiway 6 North around 7:30 tonight, figuring most people who stopped in after work would be gone. Wrong! The bread was gone, and serious dents being made in water, soft drinks, canned goods, pet food, etc. Plenty of Coronas though at 12.99 so I stocked up!

I bet tomorrow will be totally crazy at the grocery stores here in Houston, and although it was pretty darn busy tonight, it was still bearable. I've run my last errand so whatever happens... happens.

[Weatherfreak000]

Stormcenter..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

Watch that...bring up forecast points...still feel the same way? Why are you not using the floater at least to determine movement? The GOM loop just makes it worse...

[Wx_Warrior]

It's getting scary in the Golden Triangle....Nothing organized as of yet, schools are still on for tomorrow. EMO is telling people they don't have to resources to get them out and this could be a "go or stay if you want to" type deal tomorrow.

[El Nino]

Derek's newest forecast is not good, not good at all for Houston, I hope people have taken this storm seriously

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103143

HOLY CRAP ! a 220km/h towards Houston would simply be devastating !

[6SpeedTA95]

I'm pulling the hurricane hunter data as it comes in and I've yet to see any windspeeds > 89kts which is quite surprising

[Stormcenter]

I know the pressure is low and everything but it's still has a ways to go before
it gets anywhere near that "K" storm level. I have my doubts that it will. JMHO




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html