![Image](http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/5179/io05200808111400ad2.gif)
WTIO31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131521Z NOV 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 84.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 84.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.8N 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.5N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.2N 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.8N 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 84.5E. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A
132330Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH STRONG BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY, AND THE SYSTEM
NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHICH IS SUSTAINING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN AIDED
BY DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 05B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS IN A GENERALLY
WESTWARD DIRECTION, ULTIMATELY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS
BY PGTW AND KNES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 131521Z NOV 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21
PGTW 131530 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.
//