ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
WHXX01 KWBC 232110
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2110 UTC SUN NOV 23 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20081123 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081123 1800 081124 0600 081124 1800 081125 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 80.1W 9.6N 82.7W 9.5N 85.0W 9.4N 87.0W
BAMD 9.9N 80.1W 10.2N 81.8W 10.6N 83.4W 11.1N 84.9W
BAMM 9.9N 80.1W 10.1N 82.0W 10.4N 83.8W 10.6N 85.4W
LBAR 9.9N 80.1W 10.1N 80.6W 10.5N 81.4W 11.0N 82.1W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 32KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081125 1800 081126 1800 081127 1800 081128 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 88.6W 8.0N 91.8W 7.6N 94.7W 7.3N 97.5W
BAMD 11.4N 85.9W 11.0N 87.2W 10.6N 89.2W 10.1N 91.8W
BAMM 10.4N 86.6W 9.4N 88.7W 8.9N 91.0W 8.0N 93.4W
LBAR 11.6N 82.2W 13.2N 81.2W 15.9N 77.8W 19.9N 72.3W
SHIP 40KTS 31KTS 15KTS 0KTS
DSHP 32KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 80.1W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 158DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2110 UTC SUN NOV 23 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20081123 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081123 1800 081124 0600 081124 1800 081125 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 80.1W 9.6N 82.7W 9.5N 85.0W 9.4N 87.0W
BAMD 9.9N 80.1W 10.2N 81.8W 10.6N 83.4W 11.1N 84.9W
BAMM 9.9N 80.1W 10.1N 82.0W 10.4N 83.8W 10.6N 85.4W
LBAR 9.9N 80.1W 10.1N 80.6W 10.5N 81.4W 11.0N 82.1W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 32KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081125 1800 081126 1800 081127 1800 081128 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 88.6W 8.0N 91.8W 7.6N 94.7W 7.3N 97.5W
BAMD 11.4N 85.9W 11.0N 87.2W 10.6N 89.2W 10.1N 91.8W
BAMM 10.4N 86.6W 9.4N 88.7W 8.9N 91.0W 8.0N 93.4W
LBAR 11.6N 82.2W 13.2N 81.2W 15.9N 77.8W 19.9N 72.3W
SHIP 40KTS 31KTS 15KTS 0KTS
DSHP 32KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 80.1W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 158DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
I cant believe this but here is GFDL making this almost a cat 3 hurricane.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
HWRF has a minimal Tropical Storm going to Centralamerica.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
HWRF has a minimal Tropical Storm going to Centralamerica.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
WHXX01 KWBC 232353
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2353 UTC SUN NOV 23 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20081124 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081124 0000 081124 1200 081125 0000 081125 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 80.2W 10.0N 82.6W 10.1N 84.8W 9.7N 86.6W
BAMD 10.0N 80.2W 10.7N 81.4W 11.5N 82.5W 12.2N 83.5W
BAMM 10.0N 80.2W 10.3N 82.0W 10.6N 83.7W 10.7N 84.9W
LBAR 10.0N 80.2W 10.3N 81.0W 10.7N 81.8W 11.3N 82.2W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 32KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081126 0000 081127 0000 081128 0000 081129 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.0N 88.3W 8.4N 91.7W 8.3N 94.3W 8.9N 96.9W
BAMD 12.9N 84.0W 13.2N 84.2W 13.2N 84.7W 13.7N 85.5W
BAMM 10.4N 86.0W 9.5N 88.5W 9.5N 90.5W 9.2N 92.4W
LBAR 12.0N 82.2W 13.7N 80.7W 16.9N 76.8W 21.0N 69.9W
SHIP 33KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 80.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 127DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2353 UTC SUN NOV 23 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20081124 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081124 0000 081124 1200 081125 0000 081125 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 80.2W 10.0N 82.6W 10.1N 84.8W 9.7N 86.6W
BAMD 10.0N 80.2W 10.7N 81.4W 11.5N 82.5W 12.2N 83.5W
BAMM 10.0N 80.2W 10.3N 82.0W 10.6N 83.7W 10.7N 84.9W
LBAR 10.0N 80.2W 10.3N 81.0W 10.7N 81.8W 11.3N 82.2W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 32KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081126 0000 081127 0000 081128 0000 081129 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.0N 88.3W 8.4N 91.7W 8.3N 94.3W 8.9N 96.9W
BAMD 12.9N 84.0W 13.2N 84.2W 13.2N 84.7W 13.7N 85.5W
BAMM 10.4N 86.0W 9.5N 88.5W 9.5N 90.5W 9.2N 92.4W
LBAR 12.0N 82.2W 13.7N 80.7W 16.9N 76.8W 21.0N 69.9W
SHIP 33KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 80.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 127DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
I dont know how this can form with the shear that is forecast.
00:00 UTC shear forecast.
00:00 UTC shear forecast.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL962008 11/24/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 36 37 33 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 32 29 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 26 26 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 20 20 24 23 27 35 41 37 34 33 34 28 29
SHEAR DIR 212 217 212 206 201 191 193 191 174 163 162 173 172
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 148 145 143 136 136 139 139 139 139 139 137
ADJ. POT. INT. 142 150 148 144 140 132 132 137 135 135 135 135 132
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 7 6 7
700-500 MB RH 75 75 71 73 74 77 71 64 54 58 47 46 43
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 8 10 10 10 8 6 5 4 3
850 MB ENV VOR 84 82 72 63 54 64 75 51 37 29 18 17 18
200 MB DIV 133 135 118 116 96 95 64 35 17 16 -32 -50 -48
LAND (KM) 81 131 92 50 -18 -77 13 149 295 401 436 511 544
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.4 9.8 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.2
LONG(DEG W) 80.2 81.1 82.0 82.9 83.7 84.9 86.0 87.2 88.5 89.5 90.5 91.5 92.4
STM SPEED (KT) 4 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 68 74 83 23 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -30. -39. -46. -51. -51. -51.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -9. -16. -24. -27. -29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 3. -3. -11. -19. -26. -29. -32.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 11/24/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 11/24/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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- HURAKAN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
cycloneye wrote:I cant believe this but here is GFDL making this almost a cat 3 hurricane.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
HWRF has a minimal Tropical Storm going to Centralamerica.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
At the end of this run it appears the HP is N and E of 96L, so if it gets pulled N it may move NNW. Not sure if there is a strong enough front to pull 96L from the extreme S Caribbean.
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- gatorcane
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Model summary as of 06Z:
UKM => keeps 96L as a weak low pressure system meandering around the SW Carib
ECMWF => loses 96L
CMC => develops 96L in the EPAC
GFDL => develops 96L as a 110K hurricane and meanders it around the SW Carib before sending it NNW into the Western Carib
HWRF => does not develop 96L
NOGAPS => does not develop 96L
GFS => does not develop 96L
It would seem the GFDL is the outlier here
UKM => keeps 96L as a weak low pressure system meandering around the SW Carib
ECMWF => loses 96L
CMC => develops 96L in the EPAC
GFDL => develops 96L as a 110K hurricane and meanders it around the SW Carib before sending it NNW into the Western Carib
HWRF => does not develop 96L
NOGAPS => does not develop 96L
GFS => does not develop 96L
It would seem the GFDL is the outlier here
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Model summary as of 06Z:
UKM => keeps 96L as a weak low pressure system meandering around the SW Carib
ECMWF => loses 96L
CMC => develops 96L in the EPAC
GFDL => develops 96L as a 110K hurricane and meanders it around the SW Carib before sending it NNW into the Western Carib
HWRF => does not develop 96L
NOGAPS => does not develop 96L
GFS => does not develop 96L
It would seem the GFDL is the outlier here
The GFDL shows a 90 kt hurricane at peak. The winds on those images are at 35m. You can get 10-m GFDL winds at ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hur/prod/
Look for the subdirectories starting with "hur" and a file like invest96l.2008112406.stats.short
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- gatorcane
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12Z GFDL continues with its thinking of bringing a hurricane NNW towards Nicaragua. I'm not sure what it is seeing with the steering but apparently something may be there downstream to yank 96L out of the SW Caribbean and more northward. Note its not showing as strong as a system in this run as the last run but still formidable nonetheless.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
WHXX01 KWBC 250100
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0100 UTC TUE NOV 25 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20081125 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081125 0000 081125 1200 081126 0000 081126 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 81.0W 11.0N 83.1W 10.5N 85.1W 9.7N 87.3W
BAMD 11.0N 81.0W 11.8N 82.2W 12.4N 83.1W 12.6N 83.5W
BAMM 11.0N 81.0W 11.2N 82.4W 11.1N 83.6W 10.6N 84.8W
LBAR 11.0N 81.0W 11.7N 81.6W 12.4N 81.7W 13.1N 81.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 30KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 30KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081127 0000 081128 0000 081129 0000 081130 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 89.3W 9.6N 92.4W 9.0N 95.6W 9.8N 97.3W
BAMD 12.6N 83.9W 12.7N 84.6W 12.9N 85.6W 15.1N 86.9W
BAMM 10.1N 86.1W 9.7N 88.7W 9.4N 91.3W 10.7N 93.3W
LBAR 14.2N 80.2W 17.0N 75.9W 21.3N 68.8W 23.3N 57.3W
SHIP 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 81.0W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 80.1W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 80.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Shear screaming to the 40s!
Code: Select all
ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL962008 11/25/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 30 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 21 23 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 24 31 39 37 35 44 47 40 40 41 41 45 40
SHEAR DIR 206 202 203 209 203 200 193 196 194 184 178 180 191
SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 139 138 131 126 123 120 122 125 130 127
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 138 134 133 127 122 119 116 118 120 125 123
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 74 76 74 72 74 68 59 54 49 49 46 52 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 66 71 77 81 90 75 75 46 28 25 26 27 31
200 MB DIV 160 140 114 110 76 107 61 36 0 6 1 6 26
LAND (KM) 217 185 137 79 21 -67 24 167 311 428 482 466 423
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.6 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.9 10.7
LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.7 82.4 83.0 83.6 84.8 86.1 87.4 88.7 90.0 91.3 92.3 93.3
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 78 84 70 63 1 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -4. -7. -15. -28. -42. -51. -62. -68. -70. -71.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -17. -23. -32. -38. -40. -41.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -6. -16. -25. -35. -41. -43. -44.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 11/25/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 11/25/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
The GFS and UKM vertical shear forecasts appear to be favorable for development in the SW Caribbean in the long-term. While development is slow to occur in the short-term, if this area persists long enough, its going to get some good upper-level winds:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
note anticyclone over SW Carib on the 18Z run of the GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
note anticyclone over SW Carib on the 18Z run of the GFS
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